RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Dream Police (Morning Line 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1)
# 10 Cherokee Band (ML 10-1)
# 11 Remo (ML 3-1)
Dream Police took the Place in his debut as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, and will get blinkers on and a rider switch for today's contest; moves that in general tend to be neutral, but often help a second time starter focus better on his task. Life On Riveria is by a sire (Hold Me Back) and from a trainer (Peter Miller) who both do quite well with debut runners. EDIT: # 8 Life On Riveria (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
# 10 Cherokee Band goes out for Trainer Cody Autrey, who does quite well with both juveniles and first time starters. I also like that this one sold this past March at auction for $115k from off a $5k sire fee.
I downgraded # 9 Inexcess Time (ML 5-1) and # 11 Remo (ML 3-1) because they are second time starters from trainers (Walther Solis and Doug O'Neill) whose juvenile runners tend to either win in their debuts, or not until after several more starts. I did not eliminate them completely, because after all the scratches, I don't believe this field is especially strong.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Blue Tone (ML 4-1)
# 8 Patrioticandproud (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 3 Friendswith K Mill (ML 5-1)
# 9 Stormberg (ML 15-1)
Friendswith K Mill misses by a half length of being perfect in his last three starts that weren't Graded Stakes. A concern is that this is his first time facing older. Blue Tone hasn't competed since October; but he has worked well over this track (note the seven furlong move on July 20) and is the only runner in this contest with a win over this main track.
Patrioticandproud has three wins in his career on the synthetics, and has finished in the money in ten of his fourteen career starts on the plastic. Patrioticandproud was also a winner in two of his last three races that weren't Graded Stakes. Stromberg runs first time for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Story to Tell (ML 5-2)
# 7 Skyway (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 3 Two Six Wins (ML 20-1)
# 2 Conquest Bigluck E (ML 5-1) and # 5 Rowdy Dylan (ML 7-2) have been scratched.
Story to Tell misses by less than a length of being a perfect three-for-three for his career. Story to Tell is also the only non-restricted stakes winner in the field. Skyway is the only runner in this contest with a win on a synthetic surface. Skyway also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. Two Six Wins has been working well over the Del Mar surface.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Wrightwood (ML 5-1)
# 4 Hall of Fame (ML 4-1)
# 5 Noble Bird (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Opsec (ML 6-1)
# 3 Surfer Moon (ML 15-1)
# 6 Clickjab (ML 10-1)
# 7 J Serino (ML 6-1)
# 8 Alamo (ML 5-2)
# 9 Native Ride (ML 15-1)
Wrightwood has finished in the money both times that he's tried today's distance at this class level. Hall of Fame both took the Place at this level their last times out, and come back after not competing in July. The "C" Selections are everyone else, as I think this one is completely wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 9,10,11 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,9 with 1,7 with 1,4,5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 3 with 1,4,5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2,3,6,7,8,9 $12.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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