I was afraid that this was going to be another washout weekend in the east, especially with Monmouth Park announcing they were off the turf almost right at sunup. But Weather Underground is offering a reasonably dry forecast for Saratoga this afternoon, with only a slight chance of thunderstorm; so with it being Whitney Day up at the Spa, let's pray for sunshine and take a run at the all-stakes Late Pick Four.
RACE 8 - The Alfred G Vanderbilt (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Bahamian Squall (ML 8-1)
# 5 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 8 Bakken (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
Palace, winner of the Grade 2 True North, has finished in the money all but once in the dozen times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Palace has also been in the money all three times that he's run at Saratoga. Bahamian Squall took the Place in this event last year, earning his best career Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
Happy My Way has earned triple-digit Beyers in each of his last five races, and (with the scratch of Bakken) could find himself all alone on the front end today. But this will be the first time that Happy My Way is competing at this level and at Saratoga, and his work over this track on July 27 was far from impressive.
RACE 9 - (F) The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Fiftyshadesofgold (ML 8-1)
# 5 Southern Honey (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sweet Reason (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Fiftyshadesofgold turns back to her preferred distance; note that she's four-for-five in her career in races at less than a mile. Fiftyshadesofgold also shows a series of bullet works heading into this one.
Southern Honey owns the best career Beyer in a Grade 1 field where none of the entrants has ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer Speed Figure. Note also that Southern Honey earned that figure defeating older in the Grade 3 Winning Colors. The only question is how much did that race take out of her.
Sweet Reason is the only Grade 1 winner in this field, and she's done it twice. Sweet Reason has also won both times that she's competed at Saratoga.
RACE 10 - The Whitney (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Palace Malice (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 4-1)
Palace Malice is the clear class standout here, having matured into an even better runner than he was in his three year old campaign. Will Take Charge has never finished out of the Exacta with Luis Saez on his back; nor has Will Take Charge ever finished out of the Exacta when competing at today's distance.
RACE 11 - [R] The Lure $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 4 Big Blue Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Swift Warrior (ML 10-1)
# 6 Plainview (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bio Pro (ML 12-1)
# 11 Rouge Romance (ML 20-1)
Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field; but he's been on a nine month vacation, and it's fair to presume that his connections have him pointed towards bigger races than this restricted stakes.
Swift Warrior won a pair of Graded Stakes on the grass last year. Plainview is three-for three on the Saratoga grass, and his front-running style tends to play well on this inner turf course. Bio Pro is another that should be forwardly placed, and seems to have responded well to the move from West to East.
Rogue Romance has run just one race since finishing two lengths behind Ron the Greek in the 2012 Stephen Foster Handicap. But Rogue Romance is a Graded Stakes winner on the grass, and has won on the Saratoga grass (albeit on the outer turf course). In addition, Rogue Romance has won after a long hiatus, winning an Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park after having not run since taking the Show in the prior year's Risen Star.
Again, Big Blue Kitten is the clear class of this field, and should win easy; but if he doesn't fire, this becomes a wide open affair.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to play our tickets a little differently today. We'll have our usual "All A Entries"; but in addition to that we'll have just one other ticket combing all entries. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 5 with 4 $9.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5 with 2,5,7 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,9,11 $45.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:40 EDT / 1:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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