RACE 8 - Clm $32k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Diamond of Blue (Morning Line 5-2)
# 5 Warren's Joe T. (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Motown Men (ML 6-1)
Diamond of Blue grabbed the early lead his last time out over this main track and never let go, winning by over a half dozen lengths. Diamond of Blue is three-for five for his career over the Del Mar main track, but this is a pretty significant rise in class.
Warren's Joe T. has four lifetime Wins, three of which came over a synthetic surface. Warren's Joe T. took the Place at Sacramento last month on dirt in an Optional Claimer, and followed that up with a bullet work over the Golden Gate synthetic track on August 1. Steady works since suggest that he has kept his form, and his running style of pressing the pace should work well in this field. The addition of Victor Espinoza as rider is a plus.
Dr Action (Arg) was a Graded Stakes winner in Peru, but couldn't hit the board in three tries here in California; so this is a logical move down the class ladder. I don't know if Dr Action will take to the synthetic surface, but you have to respect a horse getting this kind of class relief.
Motown Men won at this level three starts back, and is one-for-two lifetime over the Del Mar main track. If Diamond of Blue falters, it could be Motown Men leading the pack around the track today.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Talco (Fr) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Enterprising (ML 9-5)
# 7 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 6-1)
# 6 Aventador (Fr) (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I see this one as a pretty wide open affair, as it's a Grade 2 stakes without a Grade 1 or Grade 2 winner in the field.
Talco (Fr) is stakes placed in his native France, and (based upon his relatively low Tomlinson Rating for Wet surfaces) should appreciate today's firm course. Note that the Trainer / Jockey tandem of John Sadler / Corey Nakatani has won approximately 23% of their mounts over the past couple of years.
Enterprising is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, having won the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course his last time out. Flamboyant (Fr) took the Show in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby his last time out. Flamboyant defeated both Home Run Kitten and Enterprising back in April in the La Puente.
Home Run Kitten has been in the Trifecta in all three of his turf starts. Home Run Kitten misses by just a neck of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Adventor (Fr) is Group Stakes placed in his native France, and was much the best as the Post Time Favorite in his last contest.
RACE 10 - Clm $10k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 10-1)
# 7 Hawk's Eyes (Brz) (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Gold Medallion (ML 7-2)
# 8 Two Is to Many (ML 10-1)
Woodmans Luck won the last race ever at Hollywood Park; and hasn't won since. But the abundance of early speed in this contest coupled with the drop in class makes him a contender in this field.
Hawk's Eyes (Brz) won at this level over this main track at today's distance his last time out. Hawk's Eyes has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; and the Beyer that he earned two starts back would also be the best last-out Beyer in this field. So why isn't Hawk's Eyes singled on my tickets? Because Hawk's Eyes needs the early lead in order to win; and I'm not so sure that he's going to get that early lead today.
Gold Medallion wired the field last time out against slightly less expensive, and with the rail draw could do a repeat performance today. Worth mentioning is that the Trainer / Jockey duo of Trainer Bob Hess / Jockey Kent Desormeaux has won approximately 23% of their starts over the past two years.
Two Is to Many won at this level three starts back, and won against slightly more expensive two starts back. Two Is to Many flopped horribly as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, which was also his debut on a synthetic surface. Perhaps he didn't like the surface; or perhaps he was too anxious to get the lead and couldn't relax. If it's the latter, taking the blinkers off today should help; if it's the former, watch for him when they get back to real dirt.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Halljoy (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Bijoux (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Charm Catcher (ML 6-1)
# 6 See Through (ML 9-2)
# 11 Nighttiming (ML 5-1)
See Through took the Place at this level last time out. This will be See Through's first race not charging down the Santa Anita hill. Halljoy (Ire) took the Place as the odds-on Favorite last time out in Great Britain; a good excuse as any to get out of town and go to the United States.
Charm Catcher finished in the money for the third time in her career at this level last time out; perhaps she just needed some time to figure things out. Bijoux took the Place as the Post Time Favorite at this level in her debut two starts back, and exits a key race. Nighttiming has taken the Place in two of her last three starts at this level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 7,10 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 7,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,6 with 5,7 with 7,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 1,8 with 7,10 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,5,7 with 5,7 with 5,6,11 $18.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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