Race 10 at Saratoga Saturday is The Whitney Invitational Handicap, a Grade 1 contest for three year olds and upward, run at a distance of nine furlongs over God-made dirt. Today's race marks the 39th anniversary of one of horse racing's most dramatic upsets, as it was on this day in the 1973 running of The Whitney that Onion defeated Secretariat (see my post of July 7 for video of that race).
# 6 Ron the Greek (Morning Line 3-1) has one career race over the Saratoga track, a top level Optional Claimer back on July 29 of last year. That race was Ron the Greek's first for Trainer Bill Mott; it's no coincidence that race also marks the start of a successful run for this five year old horse, as he has yet to finish out of the Exacta in his seven races under Mott's care. That streak includes a pair of Grade 1 victories, as Ron the Greek got his picture taken after both The Santa Anita Handicap in March and The Stephen Foster Handicap in June. Ron the Greek will be the high weight in today's event, carrying 120 pounds (yeah, high weights just ain't what they used to be). Needless to say, this is the horse to beat.
# 9 Fort Larned (ML 7-2) has the highest last-time-out Beyer Speed Figure of today's field, with the 108 that he posted while winning the Grade 3 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap on June 30. Fort Larned has hit that 108 mark two other times this year, in the Grade 3 Skip Away and the Grade 2 Alysheba (where he took the Place behind Successful Dan; who, in turn, was second behind Fort Larned in The Cornhusker); but in his one career Grade 1 start, Fort Larned finished last in the Stephen Foster, a dozen lengths behind Ron the Greek.
# 8 Hymn Book (ML 4-1) won the Grade 1 Donn Handicap back in February, just getting his nose in front of Mission Impazible at the wire. John Velazquez, who was on board for that Donn HC victory, gets the ride today. Note that Hymn Book has yet to win on a fast dirt track, taking the Place three times in five attempts.
# 1 Rule (ML 5-1) and # 7 Flat Out (ML 4-1) finished one-two last month in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup (interesting that the Saratoga odds maker expects today's bettors to prefer them in reverse of their order of finish). Rule is one of only three horses in today's field with a win over this Saratoga track, coming in first in the Birdstone Stakes exactly one year ago today. Meanwhile, Flat Out's last start was his first for Trainer Bill Mott; time will tell if Mott can coax the same level of improvement from Flat Out that he has for Ron the Greek.
# 5 Trickmeister (ML 15-1) has six victories in his eight career races; unfortunately, his two career losses have come the two times that he's tried Graded Stakes competition. Look for him early, between Rule and Fort Larned.
# 3 Caixa Eletronica (ML 15-1) is the only horse in the field with two wins at Saratoga. One of two entries trained by Todd Pletcher, Caixa Electronica has picked up a pair of Grade 2 victories this year, and is a perfect two-for-two at today's distance. Jockey Javier Castellano, who was on top for both of the Grade 2 wins this year, will be riding again today.
# 2 Hunters Bay (ML 20-1) has won his last four starts at Woodbine, including a couple against Grade 3 competition. Hunters Bay has two wins on real dirt; but both of those are back from when he was trained by Todd Pletcher. Jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson, who has ridden Hunters Bay in each of his last five starts, makes the trip from Toronto to be on board today.
# 4 Endorsement (ML 20-1) winner of the Grade 3 Texas Mile Stakes at Lone Star Park earlier this year, looked completely over-matched last month in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont. Endorsement did post a bullet workout July 23 over this track; so if he does return to form today, expect him to be a part of the early pace.
Playing against legitimate favorites is not a good strategy; and Ron the Greek seems as legitimate as they come. He's won at this level, and today's expected pace scenario seems perfectly suited to his talents. I would consider any price above even money to be generous. If I absolutely had to play for price, I would roll the dice with Caixa Eletronica.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment