Having written about the three year old filly Applauding on this blog back in July and then again in September, I don't think I need to repeat her whole story again. However, I do want to report the good news that she is back in training, having breezed four furlongs at Keeneland on Columbus Day (16/28) and then again earlier today, October 14 (19/34).
I still have no idea what caused the one month break in her workout pattern. Maybe she was injured; or maybe she needed the rest; or maybe Trainer Al Stall didn't like the way she was performing on the track. Or maybe she just doesn't like working out on Saturdays, and prefers Sundays and Holidays instead. The bottom line is that she is working over the track again, and that is good news for me and all other racing fans who would like to see this Florida bred return to action and (hopefully) once again demonstrate the form and potential that she showed as a two year old.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 14, 2012
10/14/12 WO - Race 10 - The Canadian International - Results
Joshua Tree (Final Odds 4.35-1), with Jockey Frankie Dettori on top, jumped to the early lead, set a leisurely pace (51.59 for the first half mile; 1:17.17 for the first six furlongs) and held tough at the end (23.58 for the final quarter) to wire the field in Sunday's running of the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. Dandino (25.4-1) took the Place, a half length behind Joshua Tree; while Forte Dei Marmi (8.35-1) finished a half length behind Dandino to take the Show.
Since Imperial Monarch (1.8-1) and Prince Will I Am (20.75-1) both finished out of the money, my flyer wager and exotic plays were total wipe outs, resulting in an eighteen dollar loss. However, with Joshua Tree paying $10.70 / $6.10 / $4.40, the five dollars I played across returned fifty-three dollars, making for a net profit on the race of twenty dollars.
Not bad for a prep race. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here. Video replay of the race is available in several places, including here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Since Imperial Monarch (1.8-1) and Prince Will I Am (20.75-1) both finished out of the money, my flyer wager and exotic plays were total wipe outs, resulting in an eighteen dollar loss. However, with Joshua Tree paying $10.70 / $6.10 / $4.40, the five dollars I played across returned fifty-three dollars, making for a net profit on the race of twenty dollars.
Not bad for a prep race. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here. Video replay of the race is available in several places, including here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/14/12 WO - Race 10 - The Canadian International - Preview
With the Breeders' Cup less than three weeks away, I thought it would be a good idea for me to analyze a race that closely resembles the BC Turf races that I'll soon be handicapping; the idea being to get accustomed to looking at Past Performances which include several European invaders, and where all the combatants are of Grade 1 caliber. Basically, I wanted a race where I could prep as a handicapper for the Breeders' Cup; one that I could examine, but not make a significant investment.
For that reason, I decided to take a look at Sunday's 75th running of the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes (Race 10 at Woodbine). The race is scheduled to be run at a distance of twelve furlongs over the (just outside) Toronto Turf. Eleven horses were entered, but (as I write this) there has been one scratch: # 9 Al Khali (Morning Line 10-1).
Since this is a DRF.com "Race of the Day", free Daily Racing Form Past Performances are available at the DRF.com home page, along with video analysis by Dan Illman and Mike Beer. You can also review some insightful analysis into the race here.
Before I go further, this seems as good a place as any to direct your attention to this site: Save Canadian Racing. If you're any fan at all of horse racing in Canada, you owe it to yourself to check it out.
Getting back to the race:
#10 Imperial Monarch (IRE) (ML 3-1) has only one loss in his four career tries; that came in the French Derby, and the unanimous consensus seems to be that Imperial Monarch received a nightmare trip.
# 6 Wigmore Hall (IRE) (ML 6-1) has two wins in two tries at this distance over this turf course; those victories coming last year and this year in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer (note that in both years, Wigmore Hall ran out of the money in the Arlington Million in his race immediately preceding the Northern Dancer; that could be a commentary on the different surfaces, or it could suggest that Wigmore Hall is better suited to races where the purse has fewer than seven digits to the left of the decimal point).
# 7 Reliable Man (GB) (ML 4-1) is winless in thirteen months and disappointed as the favorite in the Group 3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte his last time out. Reliable Man is making his North American debut today, as are # 1 Lay Time (GB) (ML 20-1); # 2 Dandino (GB) (ML 8-1); and the above mentioned Imperial Monarch.
# 11 Air Support (ML 10-1) has competed only once in his career at the Grade 1 level, that being at this Summer's United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park, where he took the Place. This will be Air Support's first try at a mile and a half; and while his Tomlinson rating for Turf/Distance suggests that he should handle it, color me skeptical.
I'm currently leaning towards # 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) (ML 5-1). I'm a sucker for prior winners of a race attempting to repeat, and Joshua Tree finished first (at 4.6-1) in the 2010 running of this event (he took the Place last year, at 11.45-1). The commentary lines in the Past Performances show that Joshua Tree was either on the lead or close up early in each of his prior two starts, which suggests that he enters this contest in top form.
As with the upcoming Breeders' Cup races, no matter which entrant you land on in this field, you'll be betting on a quality horse; which makes going for price an excellent strategy. Post time is scheduled for 5:44 EDT / 2:44 PDT; I'll try to have my play up before then, which I'll post in the Comments section. As always, I look forward to hearing what you have to say; preferably here, though you may feel free to email me instead, if you're more comfortable with that method of communication.
Finally, a little history: Secretariat's last race was in the 1973 running of the Canadian International (then run at a distance of thirteen furlongs). Below, courtesy of YouTube, is a documentary about that event.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For that reason, I decided to take a look at Sunday's 75th running of the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes (Race 10 at Woodbine). The race is scheduled to be run at a distance of twelve furlongs over the (just outside) Toronto Turf. Eleven horses were entered, but (as I write this) there has been one scratch: # 9 Al Khali (Morning Line 10-1).
Since this is a DRF.com "Race of the Day", free Daily Racing Form Past Performances are available at the DRF.com home page, along with video analysis by Dan Illman and Mike Beer. You can also review some insightful analysis into the race here.
Before I go further, this seems as good a place as any to direct your attention to this site: Save Canadian Racing. If you're any fan at all of horse racing in Canada, you owe it to yourself to check it out.
Getting back to the race:
#10 Imperial Monarch (IRE) (ML 3-1) has only one loss in his four career tries; that came in the French Derby, and the unanimous consensus seems to be that Imperial Monarch received a nightmare trip.
# 6 Wigmore Hall (IRE) (ML 6-1) has two wins in two tries at this distance over this turf course; those victories coming last year and this year in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer (note that in both years, Wigmore Hall ran out of the money in the Arlington Million in his race immediately preceding the Northern Dancer; that could be a commentary on the different surfaces, or it could suggest that Wigmore Hall is better suited to races where the purse has fewer than seven digits to the left of the decimal point).
# 7 Reliable Man (GB) (ML 4-1) is winless in thirteen months and disappointed as the favorite in the Group 3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte his last time out. Reliable Man is making his North American debut today, as are # 1 Lay Time (GB) (ML 20-1); # 2 Dandino (GB) (ML 8-1); and the above mentioned Imperial Monarch.
# 11 Air Support (ML 10-1) has competed only once in his career at the Grade 1 level, that being at this Summer's United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park, where he took the Place. This will be Air Support's first try at a mile and a half; and while his Tomlinson rating for Turf/Distance suggests that he should handle it, color me skeptical.
I'm currently leaning towards # 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) (ML 5-1). I'm a sucker for prior winners of a race attempting to repeat, and Joshua Tree finished first (at 4.6-1) in the 2010 running of this event (he took the Place last year, at 11.45-1). The commentary lines in the Past Performances show that Joshua Tree was either on the lead or close up early in each of his prior two starts, which suggests that he enters this contest in top form.
As with the upcoming Breeders' Cup races, no matter which entrant you land on in this field, you'll be betting on a quality horse; which makes going for price an excellent strategy. Post time is scheduled for 5:44 EDT / 2:44 PDT; I'll try to have my play up before then, which I'll post in the Comments section. As always, I look forward to hearing what you have to say; preferably here, though you may feel free to email me instead, if you're more comfortable with that method of communication.
Finally, a little history: Secretariat's last race was in the 1973 running of the Canadian International (then run at a distance of thirteen furlongs). Below, courtesy of YouTube, is a documentary about that event.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, October 12, 2012
7/5/12 BHP Race 8 - Key Race - Update
Key Race 7/5/2012 BHP Race 8, first noted here August 2, has now come back in full:
Rock Off - 5th 10/6/12 SA Race 7
Symphonic Cat - 7th 9/30/12 SA Race 10
Rintoo -WIN 8/3/12 DMR Race 2
St. Sincere - SHOW 8/17/12 DMR Race 2
You're Joking - WIN 8/1/12 DMR Race 4
Hammer the Bay - WIN 7/20/12 DMR Race 8
In High Regards - SHOW 8/23/12 DMR Race 8
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Rock Off - 5th 10/6/12 SA Race 7
Symphonic Cat - 7th 9/30/12 SA Race 10
Rintoo -WIN 8/3/12 DMR Race 2
St. Sincere - SHOW 8/17/12 DMR Race 2
You're Joking - WIN 8/1/12 DMR Race 4
Hammer the Bay - WIN 7/20/12 DMR Race 8
In High Regards - SHOW 8/23/12 DMR Race 8
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Winning Post Position Abnormalities - Update
And now we have numbers, and I can do a real update! But first, let me bring the folks that are new around here up to speed.
Back on June 30 I posted that there was something a little off about the winning post positions at Calder Race Course during its Calder (Summer) Meet; not in all races, but just in dirt sprints. Here's the chart that went with that post:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0
Notice how infrequently horses were winning from out of the Number Two hole? As to why this was happening, your guess is as good as mine; but it's obvious that Post Position 2 was not winning its fair share in dirt sprints.
On August 1, I posted an update; with chart (of course), which I reproduce here:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0
As you can see, things had gotten somewhat better for hoses running from the Number Two Post Position; not a whole lot better, but there was improvement: in the one hundred fifteen races between the two charts, PP2 won eleven times; slightly less than ten percent of the time. Again, an improvement; but still not even close to its fair share, especially when compared to its competitors to its immediate left and right (PP1 and PP3)
My plan was to update these numbers again soon after the close of the Calder Meet at the end of August. However, as I posted on September 20 the data that I was using, from Equibase.com, was no longer to be found on Calder's Track Profile Page. So I had no numbers with which to provide an update.
OK; now everyone's up to speed.
And now, thanks to the very helpful Jessica Knox at Equibase Company, I know where to obtain the numbers that I was looking for on the Equibase.com site.
Since I'm not much on keeping secrets, let me first fill all of you in on where to find the data. On pretty much any Equibase.com page you can click the "Store" button, which brings you to the Handicapper's Store (don't worry; none of this will cost you a dime). From that page, click on "Stats Central", which gives you quite a selection of free stuff. For the purposes of this post, clicking on "Meet Statistics" brings you to a couple of drop down menus where you can select a track and meet. In this case, we're clicking on "CRC-Calder Race Course" for Track, and then "4/9/2012 to 8/31/2012" for Meet. If you've done all that, you should find yourself inside a PDF file; and from that point, it's just a matter of scrolling on down to the last page to get the stats for Winning Post Positions at Calder; which are as follows:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through August 30, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........491.........93.......... 18.9
2.........491.........54...........11.0
3.........491.........72...........14.7
4.........490.........60...........12.2
5.........487.........58...........11.9
6.........457.........54...........11.8
7.........368.........38...........10.3
8.........222.........40...........18.0
9.........108.........11...........10.2
10.........50.........10...........20.2
11.........13..........1.............7.7
12..........6...........0.............0.0
That's quite an improvement for Post Position Number 2. PP2 won nineteen of the ninety-nine dirt spints in which it competed during the month of August at Calder. That's a winning percentage more than double what it had been for the previous four months of the Calder meet. And just to flesh out that picture a little bit more, let's take a look at the numbers so far in the Tropical Meet at CRC (again, courtesy of the good people at the Equibase Company):
CRC Tropical Meet Standings - Through October 10, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........164.........26.......... 15.9
2.........164.........23...........14.0
3.........164.........23...........14.0
4.........164.........27...........16.5
5.........160.........16...........10.0
6.........141.........23...........16.3
7.........101.........11..........10.9
8..........43.........11...........25.6
9..........22..........2.............9.1
10........11..........3............27.3
11.........2...........0.............0.0
If you combine the numbers for August with the Tropical Meet stats, you get PP2 winning forty-two times in two hundred sixty-three tries; or just a shade under sixteen percent.
So whatever was going on with Post Position Number Two during the early part of the Calder Meet seems to have corrected itself. Hopefully those of you who play the Miami track were sharp enough to sell PP2 when it was running cold and then buy in as soon as it got hot. And if anyone should ever figure out what was going on with PP2 in CRC dirt sprints during the early part of this Summer, I'd appreciate it if you'd post a comment here so as to let the rest of us know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Back on June 30 I posted that there was something a little off about the winning post positions at Calder Race Course during its Calder (Summer) Meet; not in all races, but just in dirt sprints. Here's the chart that went with that post:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0
Notice how infrequently horses were winning from out of the Number Two hole? As to why this was happening, your guess is as good as mine; but it's obvious that Post Position 2 was not winning its fair share in dirt sprints.
On August 1, I posted an update; with chart (of course), which I reproduce here:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0
As you can see, things had gotten somewhat better for hoses running from the Number Two Post Position; not a whole lot better, but there was improvement: in the one hundred fifteen races between the two charts, PP2 won eleven times; slightly less than ten percent of the time. Again, an improvement; but still not even close to its fair share, especially when compared to its competitors to its immediate left and right (PP1 and PP3)
My plan was to update these numbers again soon after the close of the Calder Meet at the end of August. However, as I posted on September 20 the data that I was using, from Equibase.com, was no longer to be found on Calder's Track Profile Page. So I had no numbers with which to provide an update.
OK; now everyone's up to speed.
And now, thanks to the very helpful Jessica Knox at Equibase Company, I know where to obtain the numbers that I was looking for on the Equibase.com site.
Since I'm not much on keeping secrets, let me first fill all of you in on where to find the data. On pretty much any Equibase.com page you can click the "Store" button, which brings you to the Handicapper's Store (don't worry; none of this will cost you a dime). From that page, click on "Stats Central", which gives you quite a selection of free stuff. For the purposes of this post, clicking on "Meet Statistics" brings you to a couple of drop down menus where you can select a track and meet. In this case, we're clicking on "CRC-Calder Race Course" for Track, and then "4/9/2012 to 8/31/2012" for Meet. If you've done all that, you should find yourself inside a PDF file; and from that point, it's just a matter of scrolling on down to the last page to get the stats for Winning Post Positions at Calder; which are as follows:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through August 30, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........491.........93.......... 18.9
2.........491.........54...........11.0
3.........491.........72...........14.7
4.........490.........60...........12.2
5.........487.........58...........11.9
6.........457.........54...........11.8
7.........368.........38...........10.3
8.........222.........40...........18.0
9.........108.........11...........10.2
10.........50.........10...........20.2
11.........13..........1.............7.7
12..........6...........0.............0.0
That's quite an improvement for Post Position Number 2. PP2 won nineteen of the ninety-nine dirt spints in which it competed during the month of August at Calder. That's a winning percentage more than double what it had been for the previous four months of the Calder meet. And just to flesh out that picture a little bit more, let's take a look at the numbers so far in the Tropical Meet at CRC (again, courtesy of the good people at the Equibase Company):
CRC Tropical Meet Standings - Through October 10, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........164.........26.......... 15.9
2.........164.........23...........14.0
3.........164.........23...........14.0
4.........164.........27...........16.5
5.........160.........16...........10.0
6.........141.........23...........16.3
7.........101.........11..........10.9
8..........43.........11...........25.6
9..........22..........2.............9.1
10........11..........3............27.3
11.........2...........0.............0.0
If you combine the numbers for August with the Tropical Meet stats, you get PP2 winning forty-two times in two hundred sixty-three tries; or just a shade under sixteen percent.
So whatever was going on with Post Position Number Two during the early part of the Calder Meet seems to have corrected itself. Hopefully those of you who play the Miami track were sharp enough to sell PP2 when it was running cold and then buy in as soon as it got hot. And if anyone should ever figure out what was going on with PP2 in CRC dirt sprints during the early part of this Summer, I'd appreciate it if you'd post a comment here so as to let the rest of us know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
10/8/12 FNO Race 5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, a three year old gelding by Chapel Royal, is one of the longshot claims whose story we've been following. City Chapel was scooped up by Trainer and Owner Victor Trujillo for $4,000 out of Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields on August 26, a race for non-winners of two lifetime (NW2L) in which City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.8-1, and finished fifth. City Chapel made his first start for his new connections in Race 9 at Golden Gate on September 15, again for NW2L, but this time with a price tag of $12.5k. Racing at Final Odds of 30.3-1, City Chapel closed late but finished fifth, a little less than four lengths behind the winner.
This past Monday, October 8, City Chapel made his second start for his new connections. Running in the fifth race at Fesno ($8k Claiming NW2L) City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 6.9-1, broke fifth, came four wide into the stretch, and took the Place, one length behind the winner, Legal Victory (2.9-1). In addition to paying $6.40 / $3.00 to Place and Show, along with being 50% of a Quinella that returned $29.60 for every two dollars bet, City Chapel's second place finish brought back $2,050 in purse money for Owner/Trainer Trujillo.
So City Chapel has, in about six weeks time, earned back over half his original purchase price for his new connections. Congrats to Victor Trujillo on making good on his claim, turning a horse that was an also ran at nearly 30-1 odds in a $4k Claimer into a Place finisher at twice that price in less than two months. Meanwhile, we'll continue to follow City Chapel, and report back regarding how he builds upon that success.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
This past Monday, October 8, City Chapel made his second start for his new connections. Running in the fifth race at Fesno ($8k Claiming NW2L) City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 6.9-1, broke fifth, came four wide into the stretch, and took the Place, one length behind the winner, Legal Victory (2.9-1). In addition to paying $6.40 / $3.00 to Place and Show, along with being 50% of a Quinella that returned $29.60 for every two dollars bet, City Chapel's second place finish brought back $2,050 in purse money for Owner/Trainer Trujillo.
So City Chapel has, in about six weeks time, earned back over half his original purchase price for his new connections. Congrats to Victor Trujillo on making good on his claim, turning a horse that was an also ran at nearly 30-1 odds in a $4k Claimer into a Place finisher at twice that price in less than two months. Meanwhile, we'll continue to follow City Chapel, and report back regarding how he builds upon that success.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)