3/8/15 SA R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Among the many other events that went on this past weekend at The Great Race Place, on Sunday City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, brought his act downstate from the Bay area.  Competing in Race 4 on March 8, City Chapel (Final Odds 1.70*) raced towards the rear in the backstretch, came five into the stretch, and proved himself to be second best in the field, crossing the wire four and three quarter lengths in front of Show horse Smart Ellis (9.70), but over three lengths behind the winner, Senor Rain (3.00).  For his Place finish City Chapel earned $4,200 in purse money for Owner and Trainer Victor Trujillo.

And with that race our following of City Chapel comes to an end; as City Chapel was claimed for the $12.5k price tag for which he ran, and now moves to the barn of Trainer Kelly Castaneda.  We charted City Chapel from the August 26, 2012 race in which he went to post at final odds of 29.80 and was claimed by Trujillo for $4k, through this past Sunday's contest; a total of thirty-five races that City Chapel ran for the Trujillo barn.  In those thirty-five races City Chapel finished in the money twenty-five times (7 Wins, 10 Place, 8 Show), bringing home a total of $119,925 in purse money.  Add in the $12.5k for which he sold Sunday, and that's a total return of $132,425 for the initial four thousand dollar claim.  Definitely a job well done by Trujillo.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Rocko's Wheel (Final Odds 3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Deputy Heat (3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Las Flores - # 1 Harlington's Rose (5.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Perfect Temptation (3.80) - "A" Selection

We should have shown more confidence in Deputy Heat in the second leg and made him a single; and we spread way too wide in the finale.  But despite those errors, this was our day to collect rather than contribute.  

The correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 1 / 2  paid $501.35 for a fifty cent wager.  I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Hope everyone remembered to turn their clocks ahead an hour (excepting, of course, those of you fortunate enough to live someplace that doesn't engage in such foolishness).  Keeping my action in SoCal on the day after Big Cap Day, and taking a run at The Late Pick Four.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Stormin Trick (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 4 Rocko's Wheel (ML 5-2)
# 7 Particleacelerator (ML 4-1)

C's

None

Stormin Trick made a nice move forward last time out in his second career start, taking the Place at this class level.  Rocko's Wheel returns to action for his second career start, having made his debut at Del Mar last September.  Trainer Phil D'Amato gets over twenty percent winners from both maidens making their second start and from runners returning from a greater than six month absence.  Particleacelerator is a first time starter sired by Cyclotron, whose progeny win at first asking approximately 12% of the time.  Note that Particleacelaerator also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.

RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Deputy Heat (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Brother Soldier (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

# 2 Silver Torch (ML 7-2) has been scratched.  # 8 Visitation (No Line) was a program scratch; so # 13 Silent Ruler (ML 12-1) draws in off the Also Eligible List, while # 14 Burning (ML 20-1) gets to stay in the barn.

Deputy Heat broke his maiden against non-claimers in his turf debut, and was able to take the Show against open (non-conditioned) $35k claimers in his turf debut, and then defeated non-claiming maidens in his second career start on the grass.

Like Deputy Heat, Silver Torch graduated against non-claiming maidens on the grass.  But unlike Deputy Heat, Silver Torch has already failed four times at this class level; not enough failures (in my opinion) to make Silver Torch a toss out, but enough to put up a red flag that this may be a horse that is content to settle for minor awards.

Brother Soldier seems to be returning to the form that he showed last year when he took the Place against $80k optional claimers (N1X) in his turf debut.

RACE 8 - (F) The Las Flores (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Global Hottie (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Harlington's Rose (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Global Hottie, trained by Bob Baffert, took a big step forward last time out in defeating OC $62k N2X company over this main track.  The question now is can she maintain that form against stakes company.  Harlington's Rose won The Kalookan Queen three starts back (defeating, among others, # 7 Tribal Gal (ML 5-2)) and took the Show in the Grade 2 Santa Monica two starts back; both over this main track.

RACE 9 - Md $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Perfect Temptation (ML 4-1)
# 5 Go Trumpy Go (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Paythebank (ML 12-1)
# 6 Vicious (ML 6-1)
# 7 Big Hat Charlie (ML 5-1)
# 8 Unusually Big (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ink Well (ML 12-1)
# 10 Passinaflash (ML 5-1)

C’s

None

The Also Eligibles, # 13 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1) and # 14 Midnight City (ML 15-1), don't draw in, and get to enjoy a day of rest.

Perfect Temptation and Go Trumpy Go both acquitted themselves well in their respective turf debuts charging down the hill last month.  Paythebank, also in that field, did not fare as well; but Paythebank is the only runner in this field with experience routing on the grass.

Vicious, Big Hat Charlie, Ink Well, and Passinaflash are all making their turf debuts while simultaneously dropping in for a tag for the first time.  Unusually Big is also making his debut on the grass.  Unusually Big's grandsire is Dynaformer, while his dam sire is Unusual Heat; so it's fair to presume that Unusually Big will improve with the switch to grass.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 2,5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10 $48.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EDT / 2:57 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/7/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Three year olds coast-to-coast will be prepping today for the first Saturday in May, as The Road to the Kentucky Derby makes stops in New York, Florida, and SoCal for The Gotham, The Tampa Bay Derby, and The San Felipe.  SoCal is where we'll  be playing today, as it's Big Cap Day at The Great Race Place, with the million dollar Santa Anita Handicap closing out Saturday's card.

RACE 8 - (F) The China Doll $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 She's a Big Winner (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 6 Lutine Belle (ML 8-1)

C’s

# 8 Bobbi Grace (ire) (ML 3-1)

# 9 Minks Aprise (No Line) was a program scratch.  # 10 Jaded Glory (ML 20-1) has also been scratched.

Turf sprints down the Santa Anita hill tend to favor runners coming off the pace.  She's a Big Winner has twice won against that type by charging down the hill and winning in races where she was within a length of the lead at first call, including last time out in The Sweet Life.  I don't think the switch to the flats nor the added distance today will present any problems for She's a Big Winner, and she should be quick enough to not have any traffic issues despite the inside draw.

Lutine Belle won The Blue Norther two starts back before her connections tried yet again to see if she could compete against Grade 1 company on real dirt.  If you toss those two Grade 1 dirt routes from her record then Lutine Belle has yet to finish out of the money in her career.

Bobbi Grace (Ire) has earned Beyer Speed Figures this year that have cycled up to the Beyers that she earned as a juvenile; a possible sign that she is ready to make a forward move today.

RACE 9 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Conquest Two Step (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Wild Dude (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

# 1 Chitu (ML 2-1) and # 8 Midnight Hawk (ML 6-1) have been scratched.

Conquest Two Step won The Grade 2 Palos Verdes last time out, crossing the wire three and a half lengths in front of Wild Dude, who took the Show.  Two starts back Conquest Two Step took the Place behind Shared Belief in the Grade 1 Mailbu, crossing the wire a half length in front of Chitu, who took the Show.  If Conquest Two Step runs back to his effort in those two events, then he should be the one getting his picture taken today.

Wild Dude is likely to improve in his second start of 2015 after the long layoff, though it's fair to wonder if Wild Dude's best days may be behind him.

RACE 10 - The Frank E Kilroe  Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Summer Front (ML 7-2)

# 9 Home Run Kitten (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 4-1)

# 4 Holy Lute (ML 8-1)

# 11 Za Approval (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 6 Silentio (ML 8-1)

# 7 Mega Heat (ML 8-1)

# 10 Ring Weekend (ML 8-1)

# 1 Talco (Fr) (No Line) has been scratched.

There are eleven runners going to Post in this contest, and we've using eight of them.  So, yeah, it's fair to say that I consider this event to be pretty wide open.

Summer Front has been performing well against much stiffer competition, so despite this being a Grade 1 event one could make the point that Summer Front is getting some class relief here.  Home Run Kitten has finished in the money in eight of his nine career starts on the Santa Anita grass, and may move forward with the rider change to Gary Stevens.

Winning Prize (Arg) was the winner of this event last year, and that's an angle that should be respected.  More pointedly, Winning Prize is the only runner in this contest to show a Grade 1 win in any of their previous ten starts.

Holy Lute has been markedly improved since moving from dirt to turf.  Za Approval seems to be rounding back into top form.

Silentio should improve with the return to eight furlongs.  Mega Heat is a lifetime five-for-ten on the Santa Anita turf.  Ring Weekend, winner of a pair of Grade 3's on the turf in New York, seems to prefer a softer footing.

RACE 11 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Shared Belief (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C’s

None

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in an abbreviated Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 8,9 with 5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 4,7 with 3,4,8,9,11 with 5 $10.00

All A Entries with All B Entries with All C Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 4,7 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 5 $24.00

Total: $38.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:30 EST / 3:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/1/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 4 - # 5 Moonshine Bay (Final Odds 2.60) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 4 Morning Storm (6.90) No Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Blu Jon (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 I Will Follow (4.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Aalsmeer (2.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Estellara (27.70) - No Selection

We were only able to get one out of six, and that one was the only Post Time Favorite in the sequence to cross the wire first.  When you have a day like that, about the only thing there is to do is to say,

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of  5 / 4 / 3 / 6 / 9 / 2  were, well, non-existent.  No one picked six.  No one.  So, for today, those who correctly picked five of the six winners were rewarded with a payout of $576.90 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/1/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

More rain is forecast for Sunday in SoCal, so let's just keep it in the Bay Area and take another crack at Golden Gate's Golden Pick Six.

RACE 4 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Califo Cat (Morning Line 3-1)

C’s

None

Califo Cat misses by just a length of entering this contest with a four race winning streak.  This is a step up the class ladder for Califo Cat, but he's accomplished all that he can at the ALW N1X level, and the Beyer Speed Figures that he's been been earning of late fit with the contenders at this class level.

RACE 5 - Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Tudor Blue (ML 7-2)
# 6 Simply Sharp (ML 6-5)
# 7 Sidepocket Lou (ML 15-1)

C’s

None

The conditions for this one limit it to runners that have not won a race since Dec 15, 2014, OR which have never won four races in their career.

Tudor Blue and Simply Sharp each took the Place in their respective last out race at this class level.  Sidepocket Lou drew the Number One Post Position in four of his last five races; in the one race in which he didn't draw the rail, Sidepocket Lou missed by just a length of winning at this class level.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Blue Jon (ML 9-5)
# 4 Malibu Rum (ML 8-1)
# 5 Funny How (ML 3-1)
# 6 Six Votes (ML 7-2)

C’s

None

# 7 Pocket Prince (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Blue Jon has finished in the Exacta in all three of his contests on the Golden Gate main track.  Blue Jon defeated more expensive last time out; but those were conditioned claimers (N2X) while this is open; so this is closer to a lateral move than a true drop.

Malibu Rum, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, appears to be rounding into form, having earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three races.  Funny How has missed winning by a length or less in each of his last two starts, both at this class level.  Six Votes won by a nose at this class level last time out.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Justa Splash (ML 2-1)
# 3 Mr. Disipline (ML 5-2)
# 4 Fantastic Atticus (ML 5-1)
# 7 Valentino Bill (ML 15-1)

C’s

None

Justa Splash and Mr. Disipline were both recent winners at the $12.5k N2L level (Mr. Disipline last time out; Justa Splash two back) and both earned Beyer Speed Figures in the course of their respective victories that fit well at this class level.  Fantastic Atticus drops in for the lowest tag of his career.  Valentino Bill has proven to be competitive at this class level.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Elmonte Cristo (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Elmonte Cristo, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russell Baze, won at this class level two starts back (the conditions allow him to take another crack at the ALW N1X level because he is a California bred).  Elmonte Cristo is a lifetime three-for-seven over the Golden Gate main track.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Thru the Ages (ML 12-1)
# 3 Ekatitude (ML 8-1)
# 5 One Gun (ML 2-1)
# 6 Lady Harbinger (ML 6-1)
# 9 Dolly (ML 4-1)
# 10 Spot Special (ML 10-1)

C's

None

One Gun took the Place as the Post Time Favorite last time out; Lady Harbinger took the show behind her.  Thru the Ages, Ekatitude, Dolly, and Spot Special are the four first time starters in this field.  All four have been working well for this one, and there doesn't appear to be a standout among the experienced runners.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 4 with 3,6,7 with 3,4,5,6 with 2,3,4,7 with 6 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 $57.60

Total: $57.60

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:12 EST / 2:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo