RACE 8 - (F) The China Doll $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 She's a Big Winner (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 6 Lutine Belle (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 8 Bobbi Grace (ire) (ML 3-1)
# 9 Minks Aprise (No Line) was a program scratch. # 10 Jaded Glory (ML 20-1) has also been scratched.
Turf sprints down the Santa Anita hill tend to favor runners coming off the pace. She's a Big Winner has twice won against that type by charging down the hill and winning in races where she was within a length of the lead at first call, including last time out in The Sweet Life. I don't think the switch to the flats nor the added distance today will present any problems for She's a Big Winner, and she should be quick enough to not have any traffic issues despite the inside draw.
Lutine Belle won The Blue Norther two starts back before her connections tried yet again to see if she could compete against Grade 1 company on real dirt. If you toss those two Grade 1 dirt routes from her record then Lutine Belle has yet to finish out of the money in her career.
Bobbi Grace (Ire) has earned Beyer Speed Figures this year that have cycled up to the Beyers that she earned as a juvenile; a possible sign that she is ready to make a forward move today.
RACE 9 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Conquest Two Step (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Wild Dude (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 1 Chitu (ML 2-1) and # 8 Midnight Hawk (ML 6-1) have been scratched.
Conquest Two Step won The Grade 2 Palos Verdes last time out, crossing the wire three and a half lengths in front of Wild Dude, who took the Show. Two starts back Conquest Two Step took the Place behind Shared Belief in the Grade 1 Mailbu, crossing the wire a half length in front of Chitu, who took the Show. If Conquest Two Step runs back to his effort in those two events, then he should be the one getting his picture taken today.
Wild Dude is likely to improve in his second start of 2015 after the long layoff, though it's fair to wonder if Wild Dude's best days may be behind him.
RACE 10 - The Frank E Kilroe Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Summer Front (ML 7-2)
# 9 Home Run Kitten (ML 8-1)
B's
# 3 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Holy Lute (ML 8-1)
# 11 Za Approval (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 6 Silentio (ML 8-1)
# 7 Mega Heat (ML 8-1)
# 10 Ring Weekend (ML 8-1)
# 1 Talco (Fr) (No Line) has been scratched.
There are eleven runners going to Post in this contest, and we've using eight of them. So, yeah, it's fair to say that I consider this event to be pretty wide open.
Summer Front has been performing well against much stiffer competition, so despite this being a Grade 1 event one could make the point that Summer Front is getting some class relief here. Home Run Kitten has finished in the money in eight of his nine career starts on the Santa Anita grass, and may move forward with the rider change to Gary Stevens.
Winning Prize (Arg) was the winner of this event last year, and that's an angle that should be respected. More pointedly, Winning Prize is the only runner in this contest to show a Grade 1 win in any of their previous ten starts.
Holy Lute has been markedly improved since moving from dirt to turf. Za Approval seems to be rounding back into top form.
Silentio should improve with the return to eight furlongs. Mega Heat is a lifetime five-for-ten on the Santa Anita turf. Ring Weekend, winner of a pair of Grade 3's on the turf in New York, seems to prefer a softer footing.
RACE 11 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shared Belief (ML 3-5)
B's
None
C’s
None
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in an abbreviated Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 8,9 with 5 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 4,7 with 3,4,8,9,11 with 5 $10.00
All A Entries with All B Entries with All C Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 4,7 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 5 $24.00
Total: $38.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:30 EST / 3:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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