3/28/15 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview

Saturday The Road to the Kentucky Derby heads east, more east, and even further east, with the running of The Louisiana Derby, The Florida Derby, and The UAE Derby; and this week we're going to let our play travel on that road as well.  Not to all three destinations, mind you; but we are going to chase the East Coast version of The Great White Whale, and take a run at Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Abounding Legacy (Morning Line 7-2)
# 2 River Date (ML 6-1)
# 8 Scorch (ML 4-1)

C's

None

# 6 Summer Dancer (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Abounding Legacy is moving up from state bred competition to open non-claiming maidens; but since the state is Florida, it's really not all that big a jump, and Abounding Legacy's Beyer Speed Figures suggest that he belongs with the contenders here.  River Date has finished in the money in each of his last two races at this class level.  Scorch took the Place last time out at this class level in his debut.

RACE 10 - (F) The Honey Fox (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Sandiva (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 7 Istanford (ML 5-1)

# 8 Coffee Clique (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Sandiva (Ire) enters this contest with a two race winning streak, both over this turf course against stakes competition.  Sandiva's career record of oh-for-five at today's distance is a concern; but as she was able to make the lead well before the wire in each of her last two victories, I don't think the distance will be the determining factor in her result today.

Istanford, five for ten lifetime on the grass including a pair of Graded Stakes wins, should be up on the pace right out of the gate.  If she can get some soft fractions early they may not be able to catch her late.

Coffee Clique makes her 2015 debut, having won the Grade 1 Just A Game at Belmont Park her last time out back in June.  Coffee Clique appears to be the clear class of this field, but the long layoff is a concern, as is the decision by Jockey Javier Castellano (who was on board Coffee Clique in each of her last two wins) to jump off her back to ride Sandiva instead.

RACE 11 - (F) The Orchid (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 White Rose (ML 6-1)

# 4 Kitten's Point (ML 7-2)

# 7 Riposte (GB) (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

White Rose won The Dowager Stakes at Keeneland at today's distance two starts back.  Kitten's Point won The Astra Stakes at Santa Anita at today's distance two starts back.  Riposte (GB), a Graded Stakes winner here in North America, won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot at today's distance back in August 2013.

RACE 12 - (F) The Gulfstream Park Oaks (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Ekati's Phaeton (ML 4-1)

# 6 Eskenformoney (ML 5-2)

# 8 Birdatthewire (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Ekati's Phaeton, winner of the Grade 2 Davona Dale last time out, and the Grade 3 Old Hat three starts back, is a career four-for-five over this main track.  Interesting that Ekati's Phaeton has the highest odds of the trio, as Eskenformoney and Birdatthewire were her beaten foes in the Davona Dale.  Still, all three horse were within a half-length of each other at the wire last time out, so it would not take much for either Eskenformoney or Birdatthewire to turn the tables on Ekati's Phaeton today.

RACE 13 - The Pan American (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Imagining (ML 7-2)

# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 6-5)

C’s

None

I really wanted to make Twilight Eclipse a single on this ticket, as his nemesis Main Sequence is competing on the other side of the planet.  But Imagining has finished in front of Twilight Eclipse in the not-too-distant past, and Trainer Tom Albertrani (Twilight Eclipse's conditioner) has not been having the best of meets; so Imagining goes on the ticket as well.

RACE 14 - The Florida Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Materiality (ML 7-2)

# 9 Upstart (ML 8-5)

C’s

None

As with Twilight Eclipse in the previous race, I was hoping to make Upstart a single on my ticket in this contest, as he was much the best last time out in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth despite being disqualified.  But the far outside post at this trip on this main track is a concern, and the high Beyer Speed Figure Materiality earned in his second career start last time out is just too good to overlook.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,2,8 with 4,7,8 with 2,4,7 with 3,6,8 with 3,8 with 7,9 $64.80

Total: $64.80

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:53 EDT / 12:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo