RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Always a Chance (Morning Line 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Nero's Pleasure (ML 5-2)
# 7 Nazareth (ML 8-1)
# 6 Kerrilynn (Morning Line 4-1) has been scratched.
Always A Chance switches to the hill after showing good early speed while routing on the flat turf course. Nero's Pleasure took the Show at this class level two starts back. Nero's Pleasure gets a rider switch back to Drayden Van Dyke, who was on board for both of Nero's Pleasure's two career Wins. Nazareth gets some much needed class relief.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) The Dream of Summer $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Wild in the Saddle (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
# 1 Anniversary Kitty (ML 6-1) and # 4 Sweet Marini (ML 8-5) have been scratched.
Wild in the Saddle, going third off the layoff for Trainer Richard Baltas, was a clear winner last time out at today's distance over this main track, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that should get the job done today.
Had she not scratched, Sweet Marini would have been an "A" Selection here. The scratches make this a four horse field. My personal opinion is that not using Wild in the Saddle as a single makes it hard to justify not hitting the "ALL" button in this leg, as the other three runners strike me as inseparable in terms of their current class and condition. Since it seems to me a better strategy to spread wider in legs other than this one, our ticket today hinges on Wild in the Saddle; if she loses, then we lose too.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 80k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Birdlover (GB) (ML 9-5)
# 2 Customer Base (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Industrial Party (ML 8-1)
# 9 Hijra (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 5 Indecise (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
The conditions for this one limit it to runners:
1) Which have never won $10k three times other than Maiden, Claiming, or Starter; OR
2) That are California breds which have never won four races; OR
3) Which have not won a race other than Closed, Claiming, or Starter at a mile or longer since March 1, 2014; OR
4) Which will run for an Optional Claiming price of $80k
Note that none of the runners here are in for the $80k claiming price, so all meet at least one of the other three conditions.
Birdlover (GB) misses by just a head of entering this contest with a three race winning streak. Birdlover has finished in the Exacta in all seven of her career races on the Santa Anita grass.
Customer Base seems to prefer longer, as she is a career oh-for-seven at today's distance. But Customer Base has finished in the money four of those seven times, and several of those contests were against much tougher company than she will be facing here today.
Expect Industrial Party to be running late, and there should be enough pace here for her to chase. Hijra (Ire) has finished in the money four of the five times that she's tried this distance on the grass. Note also that Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins approximately 23% of the time that he sends a last out winner out for a repeat.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Gold Journey (ML 4-1)
# 7 Just Bookin (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Gold Locket (ML 8-1)
# 5 Coded Message (ML 7-2)
# 8 Miserable Blue (ML 4-1)
# 10 Pocketfullofgreen (ML 3-1)
# 9 Glendas Grace (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Gold Journey and Just Bookin both took the Place at this class level in their respective last out races. Gold Locket took the Place at this class level two starts back. Coded Message has finished in the money in each of her two career starts, both at this class level.
Miserable Blue makes her second career start after showing good early speed in her debut. Pocketfullofgreen drops in class for her second career start. Note that Pocketfullofgreen's trainer Phil D'Amato wins one out of every four times that he sends a maiden out for their second start.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,2 with 6,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All C Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 5 with 1,2,6,9 with 3,5,6,7,8,10 $36.00
Total: $40.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EST / 2:57 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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