5/15/15 Pimlico All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

It's Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico, a.k.a. Preakness Eve, and they've put together an excellent card, with a wide variety of wagering options.  I originally planned to take a shot at today's ten cent Rainbow Pick Six, or perhaps the low takeout Pick Five; but I found the two Allowance Races starting the Pick Six sequence (Races 6 and 7) pretty inscrutable, and figured that I would have to go at least four deep in each.  Since I couldn't find a suitable single in the subsequent stakes races, I concluded that playing either the Pick Six or the Pick Five would be too much of a budget buster; so I decided instead to focus my attention of the All-Stakes Pick Four.

RACE 8 - (F) The Miss Preakness (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Irish Jasper (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 6 Divine Dawn (ML 5-1)

# 11 Huasca (ML 8-1)

# 1 Enchanting Lady (ML 3-1); # 3 Miss Ella (ML 4-1); and # 5 Regina Christina (ML 30-1) have all been scratched.

Irish Jasper, a two time stakes winner, should get a nice press-and-pounce trip from the outside.  Divine Dawn, trained by Larry Jones, took the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Beaumont.  Divine Dawn should appreciate the turn back in distance today.  Huasca has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.

RACE 9 - The Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Amelia's Wild Ride (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Ben's Cat (ML 2-1)

# 7 Bold Thunder (ML 7-2)

Amelia's Wild Ride, winner of the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint back in February, should appreciate the return to a firm turf surface today.  Ben's Cat won the running of this event last year; albeit when it was taken off the grass.  Look for Ben's Cat to be doing his best running late, while Bold Thunder could be the one leading the field early, and possibly all the way to the wire.

RACE 10 - (F) The DuPont Distaff (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Stopchargingmaria (ML 9-5)

B's

# 5 Fortune Pearl (ML 8-1)

# 10 Yahilwa (ML 9-2)

# 7 Before You Know It (ML 10-1) has been scratched.

Stopchargingmaria is that class of this field, and she'll be getting some class relief today after taking the Place in the Grade 1 Madison last time out.  Fortune Pearl, trained by Graham Motion, could be cycling up to a big number.  Yahilwa, winner of the Grade 3 Sixty Sails last time out, shares with Stopchargingmaria the honor of having the best last out Beyer Speed Figure.

RACE 11 - (F) The Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Include Betty (ML 5-1)

# 8 Luminance (ML 9-5)

B's

# 1 Danessa Deluxe (ML 9-2)

# 3 Ahh Chocolate (ML 6-1)

Include Betty, trained by Tom Proctor and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, took the Grade 3 Fantasy two starts back.  Luminance, trained by Bob Baffert, took the Place in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks last time out.  

Danessa Deluxe shares with Luminance the honor of having the best last out Beer Speed Figure.  Look for Danessa Deluxe and Ahh Chocolate to be doing their best running late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 9 with 9 with 2 with 5,8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,9,11 with 3,7,9 with 2,5,10 with 1,3,5,8 $54.00

Total: $55.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 3:23 EDT / 12.23 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Keegers (Final Odds 10.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Lazaro Barrera - # 7 Kentuckian (1.00*) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Famous Alice (5.40) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Cook Inlet (67.90) - No Selection

As we've often said in this space, miss one or miss 'em all, it's all the same to the bottom line.  Well, today we managed to miss 'em all.  Keegers got up in the final strides of the opening leg to defeat our "B" Selection, # 1 Hye I'm Jack (1.90) by a head; and it was all downhill from there.  

We made a deliberate point of playing against the Favorite Kentuckian in the featured race, and he won by over a half dozen lengths.  We had no part of any of the horses that finished in the Superfecta in Race 8; and, despite going eight deep in a ten horse field, we managed to whiff on the winner in the finale.  There are days when this sport can truly humble you, and today was definitely one of those days.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 7 / 3 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $8,485.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/10/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Happy Mother's Day everyone!  I hope everyone is enjoying the day in their own personal manner of choosing; which is exactly what I'll be doing as we take a run at today's Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Soul Crusher (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 1 Hye I'm Jack (ML 5-2)

Soul Crusher drops back down into the Maiden Claiming ranks after earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure against non-claiming Maidens.  Hye I'm Jack moves from state bred restricted fields into open company, so the lower price tag really isn't a class drop; but Hye I'm Jack does project to be early speed on the rail, and that could prove to be dangerous in this field.

RACE 7 - The Lazaro Berrera (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Yiannis (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Forest Blue (ML 8-1)

# 5 The Gomper (ML 4-1)

# 2 The Man (ML 4-1) has been scratched.

Yiannis, the only runner in this contest not trained by either Jerry Hollendorfer or Peter Miller, is also the only runner in this contest to have won against stakes competition, having crossed the wire first last time out in the San Pedro.  Forest Blue is a second time starter who was pulling away from the field in the stretch in his debut win at six furlongs.  The Gomper, moving from the barn of Trainer Ron Ellis to Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the one that could be running best late.

# 7 Kentuckian (ML 5-2), trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Mike Smith, is sired by Tiznow out of an Unbridled's Song mare; to me, that means that this horse is much better suited to grass than to a fast dirt track.  That's not to say that Kentuckian can't win today, as he is a talented horse; but it does mean that I won't be using him in our Late Pick Four play; so if Kentuckian wins today, he will turn our Late Pick Four tickets into trash.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Moanin (Fr) (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Diamond Stilettos (Ire) (ML 6-1)

Moanin (Fr) took the Place last time out at this class level in her North American debut.  Moanin was a two time Allowance company winner in her native France.  Diamond Stilettos missed by just a length at this class level last time out; the turnback in distance could prove beneficial.

RACE 9 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Buffalo (Brz) (ML 5-1)

# 7 Trucial State (ML 8-1)

# 12 Bixley (ML 5-2)

# 13 On the Key (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 1 Fonz (ML 3-1)

# 5 Broadway Nika (ML 6-1)

# 8 Relentless Heat (ML 4-1)

# 10 Titled Nobility (ML 15-1)

# 4 Dekko (Arg) (No Line), # 6 Two Is to Many (NL), and # 11 Pioneer Charlie (NL) are all program scratches.

Buffalo (Brz), a stakes winner in his native Brazil, drops into the lowest price tag of his career.  Trucial State took the Place at this class level last time out.  Four starts back, Trucial won at this class level.  On the Key ships in from out of state, having earned this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure.

Bixley is pretty much the definition of a suspicious class drop, returning as he is to competition after a ten month layoff after having defeated much more expensive stock last time out.  Still, Trainer Robertino Diodoro wins frequently enough with those coming back from an extended holiday that Bixley must be respected here.

Fonz has finished in the money each of the last three times that today's jockey, Rafael Bejarano, was on his back.  However, Fonz is moving today from conditioned claimers to the open claiming ranks, so the lower price tag really isn't a true class drop.

Broadway Nika won by the length of the grandstand three starts back against more expensive stock.  In two of the three starts prior to that one, Broadway Nika recorded victories at today's class level.  Relentless Heat took the Show at this class level last time out.  Titled Nobility took the Show against more expensive three starts back.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 1 with 2,7,12,13 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,9 with 1,4,5 with 1,2 with 1,2,5,7,8,10,12,13 $48.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/9/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 11 Oligarch (Final Odds 2.40) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Cherubim (8.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The American - # 8 Bal a Bali (Brz) (1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Momma Tried (13.70) - No Selection

We were wrong about just how good Bal a Bali (Brz) was, as he proved quite adept in winning his North American debut.  But that was not a problem, as we still had Bal a Bali on our tickets.  We were also wrong about the winning capabilities of Momma Tried in the finale, and that was a problem, as we did not have Momma Tried on any of our tickets.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 Hired Gun (15.90) - $1311.45

# 4 Practical (7.40) - $632.85

# 5 Go Jeremiah (5.10) - $443.10

# 10 Sure Victory (3.30) - $179.15

But such was not to be.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  11 / 8 / 8 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $1,266.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/9/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

We're at the off week between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes; still, there's plenty of great racing today on both coasts.  On the East coast Belmont Park is running The Man o' War Stakes as well as The Peter Pan, while Monmouth Park is enjoying it's Opening Day.  As for us, we'll be turning our attention to the West, and taking a run at The Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Nextdoorneighbor (Morning Line 8-5)

B’s

# 11 Oligarch (ML 5-1)

# 1 I'm Not Gray (NL) and # 7 Grazen's Hope (NL) are program scratches.

Nextdoorneighbor misses by just half a length of entering this contest with a five race winning streak.  Nextdoorneighbor's one loss during that stretch came at this class level in February to Oligarch.  These two appear to be a few strides ahead of the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 13 May B (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 5 Pat the Bear (ML 4-1)

# 8 Cherubim (ML 5-1)

# 9 Success Rate (ML 15-1)

C's

# 10 Bronze Star (ML 12-1)

# 3 Back to Bako (NL) is a program scratch.

May B took the Place at this class level over this main track last time out, in the process earning a Beyer's Speed Figure equaling his career best, which had been earned in his debut last June.  Pat the Bear has finished in the Exacta in all three of his prior career races over this main track.

Cherubim returns to action after a six month vacation; Trainer Phil D'Amato wins with nearly one third of such.  Cherubim also posted a nice bullet work over this main track last Saturday, so he should be ready to roll today.  

Success Rate did a fine job rating last time out over this main track, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that fits in well with the contenders in this field.  Bronze Star probably needs a race, but the possibility of getting double digit odds on the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith is just too tempting to completely pass up.

RACE 8 - The American (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Talco (Fr) (ML 5-2)

# 8 Bal a Bali (Brz) (ML 9-5)

Winning Prize (Arg) was just a head behind Talco (Fr) at the wire last time out over this turf course in the Thunder Road Stakes.  I expect Winning Prize to turn the tables on Talco today because I feel that Winning Prize is more likely to move forward off of last month's effort, because Winning Prize has shown in the past the ability to do better than he did in the Thunder Road; meanwhile, Talco's effort in that contest was a career best for him, so I would not be surprised to see Talco take a step back off that effort today.  Still, these are both two talented horses who fit well at this level, and either of them could win today.

Bal a Bali (Brz) is listed as the Morning Line Favorite here; and to be honest, I certainly wouldn't bet him in the Win Pool at odds of 9-5.  Bal a Bali, in addition to making his North American debut, is also making his first start in eleven months.  There is certainly talent here, as can be seen by all the Graded Stakes victories, which is why Bal a Bali is on this ticket; note especially the win in the Grade 1 Estado de Rio de Jeneiro, where Bal a Bali covered the eight furlongs in 1:31 1/5.  But for a Win Pool wager, I'd be looking to get longer odds than the Morning Line for a runner that seems to be merely prepping for bigger things later this Summer and Fall.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Go Jeremiah (ML 6-1)

# 10 Sure Victory (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Hired Gun (ML 10-1)

# 4 Practical (ML 6-1)

# 9 Smooven Square (ML 5-1) has been scratched.

Go Jeremiah took the Place at this class level last time out.  Sure Victory makes his first start after an extended layoff for Trainer Phil D'Amato.  Hired Gun drops in class for his second career start for Trainer Doug O'Neill.  Practical lead most of the way at this class level last time out before settling for the Show; perhaps the turn back in distance will be enough to get him into the Winner's Circle today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 13 with 3 with 5.10 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 9,11 with 5,8,9,13 with 3,5,8 with 1,4,5,10 $48.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 9 with 10 with 3 with 5,10 $1.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EDT / 3:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2015 Kentucky Derby Wrap Up

And we're back.

First things first: it was, as in years past, yet another wonderful reunion with the Derby Crew.  There are few things in life more rewarding than reconnecting with old friends, and this occasion was no exception.  Sadly, this year's get-together was, as it seems every year, much too brief; indeed, it felt as if only a few blinks of the eye had passed from the time we were saying our hellos to the moment it was time to say good-bye.  Sadder still, not all members of the crew were able to make it this year; hopefully that will change with our next scheduled gathering.

I would be remiss were I to not thank the wonderful people at Green Valley Ranch for the splendid job they all did in yet again taking care of the Derby Crew.  Indeed, the consistency with which the crew receives outstanding customer service from the staff of Green Valley Ranch makes it tempting for me to simply cut and paste everything that I wrote last year upon my return.  

Yes, as always the grounds at Green Valley Ranch were strikingly beautiful; and, yes, the rooms were yet again spacious and clean.  But as you should surmise from even a casual reading of this blog, it's the Race Book that draws the crew to Green Valley Ranch and keeps us coming back year after year.  Bert Cirincione (Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operation at Green Valley Ranch) and Celena Sams (Race and Sports Supervisor) did yet another wonderful job of seeing to it that all the Derby Crew needs were met throughout our stay, as they and the entire staff provided a level of customer service that simply cannot be surpassed.  So to Bert, Celena, our cocktail waitress Sharon, and indeed, all the waitresses, ticket writers, and each and every staff member of the Race Book in particular and GVR as a whole, thank you for all you did in adding to the crew's enjoyment of the Kentucky Derby.

As to the actual running of the Kentucky Derby, I wrote in my Derby preview post that I would be leaning heavily on # 3 Materiality (Final Odds 11.50).  So let me just state right up front that, as far as our Derby wagering was concerned, it was another case of:

Oh well; onto the next race.

But while he was not among the top finishers, it's hard to feel disappointment at the effort shown by Materiality.  The poor Post Position draw as well as his inexperience doomed Materiality from the start, as he hesitated at the break; indeed, you'll notice the remark at the top of the Equibase chart of the Kentucky Derby that the start was "Good for all except 3 [Materiality], 15 [Frosted (10.30)]".  But despite the poor beginning Materiality didn't quit, and he did a fine job of running late, gaining seven lengths on the leader in the stretch.  I don't know what plans Materiality's connections have for his future, but I believe that he showed that he is definitely a horse to keep your eyes on.

As to the winner, # 18 American Pharoah (2.90*), this marks the third year in a row that the Kentucky Derby winner was the Post Time Favorite.  Obviously the public is getting much smarter about selecting its Derby runners!  Seriously, this year's renewal of the Derby produced a very formful race, as five of the six runners who went to post at odds below 12-1 occupied the top half dozen slots on the chart.  # 5 Danzig Moon (22.60) was the only entrant with odds higher than 12-1 to finish in the top six, as he crossed the wire fifth; while # 2 Carpe Diem (7.70) was the only short priced horse to not hit the board.

So what key information can we take from the Derby to help us with our Preakness bets?  Well, as so many have already noted, the top three finishers in the Derby (American Pharoah; # 10 Firing Line (9.50); and # 8 Dortmund (4.30)) were also the top three runners at each and every call of the race.  So was this a case of the race shape heavily influencing the final result?  Or was this simply a case of the best three runners taking it to the rest of the field right from the opening bell?  Time will no doubt tell, but when I see a result where the horses that were first through fifth at the top of the stretch crossed the finish line in that exact same order, I tend to give a lot of consideration next time out to any horses that actually gained ground on the leaders during that stretch drive; and, lo and behold, that just leads us right back to Materiality, as well as # 14 Keen Ice (45.80).  As I type this, Materiality's participation in the Preakness is still unclear; while it appears that Keen Ice, a son of Curlin, is being pointed toward the Belmont.

So congrats to American Pharoah and his connections, including Jockey Victor Espinoza, who picks up his third career Kentucky Derby win; and good luck to all participants as we move forward towards the next jewel in the Triple Crown.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo