Race 7 - # 3 Shallot (Final Odds 5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Who's Out (3.90) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Del Mar Ann (8.70) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 7 Soul Flyer (3.20*) - "B" Selection
In a little bit of deja vu we again see our Pick Four play open with one of our "A" Selections, in this case # 12 Gold Journey (5.00), dump her rider right out of the gate; an occurrence which again gave us an early warning signal that today was not going to be our day. Incidentally, kudos to Betamerica.com for refunding WPS wagers to their clients who bet on Gold Journey, as the Del Mar stewards clearly erred in not declaring her a non-starter. While it had no effect on our bottom line, such an exemplary customer service act is deserving of high praise indeed. As for our play, it falls significantly short of earning high praise; for while we had 'em all. we didn't have 'em all on any one ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 6 / 3 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $1,360.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 29, 2015
8/29/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Yest, it's true: there really are horse races in the United States today outside of Saratoga. While we wish all the best to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, as well as the best of luck to all those playing the Saratoga card, we'll be focusing our attention on the opposite coast, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Matter of Luck (Morning Line 9-2)
# 12 Gold Journey (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 10 Little But Lucky (ML 5-1)
C's
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Matter of Luck (Morning Line 9-2)
# 12 Gold Journey (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 10 Little But Lucky (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Shallot (ML 5-1)
# 5 Sweet Mz. Poppet (ML 6-1)
# 7 Rock N Bunny (ML 15-1)
# 4 Lady Dash (ML 20-1) is a program scratch; so bring in # 13 Beyond Lucky (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible List; but let # 14 Belle Evon (ML 5-1) stay in the barn.
Matter of Luck tries winners for the first time after winning by daylight last time out while earning the best dirt last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Gold Journey took the Place at this class level last time out. Little But Lucky's form looks much better if you toss out her two turf starts.
Shallot has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, though it was earned while sprinting on the grass. Shallot showed good early speed while winning two starts back, and Trainer Ed Freeman does quite well when moving his runners from turf to dirt.
Sweet Mz. Poppet showed good early speed against more expensive stock last time out. Rock N Bunny crossed the wire first at this class level last time out, but had her number taken down due to an inability to run in a straight line.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Semper Fortis (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Oppidum (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Who's Out (ML 9-2)
# 1 Justin Squared (ML 3-1) and # 5 Go Ghetto (ML 12-1) are program scratches.
Semper Fortis took the Place in his debut last time out at this class level. The concern with Semper Fortis is that runners trained by Doug O'Neill often don't move forward in their second career starts.
Oppidum, trained by Bob Baffert, was sired by Speightstown, whose progeny tend to do rather well at first asking. Who's Out, who debuted in the same contest as Semper Fortis, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, whose runners often improve off their initial efforts in their second career tries.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Holograeme (ML 3-1)
# 6 Pammy Whammy (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Foolish Ways (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 3 Del Mar Ann (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Miss Boom Boom (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sweet (ML 4-1)
Pammy Whammy and Holograeme took the Place and the Show, respectively, their last time out at this class level. Foolish Ways (Ire) has yet to finish out of the money on grass since adding the blinkers. Del Mar Ann had to put a price tag on her head in order to graduate, but she did close exceptionally well in that contest (her first try on grass) while winning by daylight.
Miss Boom Boom took the Place against stakes company last time out, a marked improvement over her previous effort, which saw her finish out of the money at this class level. Sweet took the Place at this class level last time out, despite losing ground on the winner in the final furlong.
RACE 10 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Moonie (ML 4-1)
B's
# 7 Soul Flyer (ML 7-2)
# 12 Parasail (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Lacey's Rainbow (ML 6-1)
# 13 Bella Sierra (ML 5-1)
# 11 West Mid (ML 20-1) is a program scratch; so bring in Bella Sierra off the Also Eligible List.
Moonie took the Place at this class level two starts back, which was also Moonie's most recent start on dirt and with blinkers on.
Soul Flyer has finished in the money in all three of her career starts, all at this class level. Parasail, a first time starter, has been firing bullets in her morning workouts over this main track. Lacey's Rainbow closed well in her debut last time out. Bella Sierra missed by less than two lengths when she competed at this class level two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,12 with 4 with 4,6 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,10,12 with 4,7 with 2,3,4,6 with 7,10,12 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 4 with 4,6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6,12 with 6 with 4,6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,12 with 4 with 1,5 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,12 with 4 with 4,6 with 5,13 $4.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 23, 2015
8/23/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 10 Finest City (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Del Mar Mile Handicap - # 10 Avanzare (6.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Gloryzapper (0.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 With a Twist (3.30) - "A" Selection
We used four runners in the Opening Leg of the sequence just to find the 7-10 Favorite; certainly not our finest job of handicapping (see what I did there?). We similarly used five runners in the third leg of the sequence just to find the 9-10 Favorite; but at least that contest gave us the thrill of just missing by half a length with one of our "C" Selections, # 6 Josephine's Moment (29.40), with whom we still would have cashed, as we brought home "A's" in the other three legs.
Oh, and speaking of that third leg, it looks as if we were the only ones who were curious as to how # 2 Tatum's Gold would run. I say that because apparently everyone else wagering knew that she wouldn't, as she was heavily un-bet from her Morning Line of 4-1 up to Final Odds of 22-1.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 4 An Unusual Group (6.50) - $200.10 Finish: 4th
# 6 Redressthebalance (Ire) (3.00*) - $101.20 Finish: 6th
# 9 Aunty Pearl (4.60) - $135.00 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Four sequence of 10 / 10 / 4 / 3 paid $92.15 for a fifty cent wager, making for the ridiculously tiny approximate odds of 3-20 on our $80 investment. For the record, that's only slightly better than if we had just put the whole eighty bucks on Finest City to Show. Still, tiny as our profit may be, it is still profit; and speaking as someone who has on occasion cashed at a loss, and on even more occasions not cashed at all, I will gladly take it.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Del Mar Mile Handicap - # 10 Avanzare (6.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Gloryzapper (0.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 With a Twist (3.30) - "A" Selection
We used four runners in the Opening Leg of the sequence just to find the 7-10 Favorite; certainly not our finest job of handicapping (see what I did there?). We similarly used five runners in the third leg of the sequence just to find the 9-10 Favorite; but at least that contest gave us the thrill of just missing by half a length with one of our "C" Selections, # 6 Josephine's Moment (29.40), with whom we still would have cashed, as we brought home "A's" in the other three legs.
Oh, and speaking of that third leg, it looks as if we were the only ones who were curious as to how # 2 Tatum's Gold would run. I say that because apparently everyone else wagering knew that she wouldn't, as she was heavily un-bet from her Morning Line of 4-1 up to Final Odds of 22-1.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 4 An Unusual Group (6.50) - $200.10 Finish: 4th
# 6 Redressthebalance (Ire) (3.00*) - $101.20 Finish: 6th
# 9 Aunty Pearl (4.60) - $135.00 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Four sequence of 10 / 10 / 4 / 3 paid $92.15 for a fifty cent wager, making for the ridiculously tiny approximate odds of 3-20 on our $80 investment. For the record, that's only slightly better than if we had just put the whole eighty bucks on Finest City to Show. Still, tiny as our profit may be, it is still profit; and speaking as someone who has on occasion cashed at a loss, and on even more occasions not cashed at all, I will gladly take it.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/23/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
It's the day after Pacific Classic Day, and all the talk is still about Beholder and her huge win and her possibly competing against American Pharoah and man what a bad break for the fans that this is the year that the Breeders' Cup is not being held in California. But all that is well into the future; meanwhile we've got races that we need to sort out today, as we take yet one more run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Lily Pod (Morning Line 7-2)
# 10 Finest City (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Ponder Lea (ML 4-1)
# 9 She'soverthemoon (ML 6-1)
Lily Pod has finished in the Trifecta in each of her first two career starts, both against non-claiming maidens. Finest City took the Place in her debut last time out against Gloryzapper, the Morning Line Favorite in Race 9 below.
Ponder Lea is a first time starter sired by More Than Ready, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their initial tries. She'soverthemoon, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, had to go on the shelf after her debut effort back in February; but She'soverthemoon does show steady works leading into today's contest.
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Mile Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Talco (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Avanzare (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Pure Tactics (ML 8-1)
# 4 Bal a Bali (Brz) (ML 3-1)
C's
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Lily Pod (Morning Line 7-2)
# 10 Finest City (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Ponder Lea (ML 4-1)
# 9 She'soverthemoon (ML 6-1)
Lily Pod has finished in the Trifecta in each of her first two career starts, both against non-claiming maidens. Finest City took the Place in her debut last time out against Gloryzapper, the Morning Line Favorite in Race 9 below.
Ponder Lea is a first time starter sired by More Than Ready, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their initial tries. She'soverthemoon, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, had to go on the shelf after her debut effort back in February; but She'soverthemoon does show steady works leading into today's contest.
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Mile Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Talco (Fr) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Avanzare (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Pure Tactics (ML 8-1)
# 4 Bal a Bali (Brz) (ML 3-1)
C's
None
# 11 Obviously (Ire) is a program scratch. Look for Obviously's next start to be north of the border.
Talco (Fr), winner of the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile last time out, enters this contest with the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Avanzare, winner of the Grade 2 Arcadia last time out, has finished in the Trifecta in nine of his ten career grass starts.
Pure Tactics is taking a pretty big jump up the class ladder today, but Pure Tactics closed extremely well into incredibly soft fractions while winning The Wickerr in his last start. Bal a Bali (Brz) defeated Talco in the Grade 3 American two starts back; the concern is that Bal a Bali failed to show anything in the drive in his last start.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Exposure (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Sweetrayofsunshine (ML 7-2)
# 4 Gloryzapper (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Tatum's Gold (ML 4-1)
# 6 Josephine's Moment (ML 12-1)
Exposure enters this contest with a two race winning streak. Exposure projects to be the speed of the speed in this event.
Sweetrayofsunshine shares the honor of best last out Beyer Speed Figure with Exposure. Gloryzapper, trained by Phil D'Amato, faces winners for the first time after winning her debut last time out. Josephine's Moment should appreciate the drop in class as well as the turn back in distance.
I mentioned that Exposure is entering this contest with a two race winning streak. What I didn't mention is that Exposure's rider for those two wins, indeed, for her entire four race career, has been Martin Garcia. But Garcia won't be riding the Bob Baffert trained Exposure today. That honor instead will go to Rafael Bejarano. Meanwhile Garcia will be taking the mount today on Tatum's Gold, trained by Steve Miyadi. Today will be the first time in her eight race career that Tatum's Gold will have Garcia on her back.
Now I have no idea whose decision (jockey, trainer, or owner) it was for Garcia to not ride Exposure today. But it does make me more than a little bit curious as to how Tatum's Gold will run today in this, her first effort in an open (non-state bread restricted) contest.
RACE 10 - (F) Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 With a Twist (ML 7-2)
# 4 An Unusual Group (ML 8-1)
# 6 Redressthebalance (Ire) (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 9 Aunty Pearl (ML 6-1)
C's
# 8 Zuzu's Petals (ML 10-1)
# 1 Love Blind (Arg) (No Line), # 12 Mailbaby (Ire) (NL), # 13 Wild Bella (NL), and # 14 Forever a Fan (NL) are all program scratches.
With a Twist took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit for different connections. An Unusual Group was sired by Unusual Heat, whose progeny seem to do rather well on this turf course. Redressthebalance (Ire) took the Show against more expensive stock two starts back.
Aunty Pearl could have things all her own way in the early going. Zuzu's Petals is making her turf debut today. Zuzu's Petals damsire, General Meeting, won the Grade 3 Volante Handicap on the Santa Anita grass back in 1991.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,10 with 2,10 with 8 with 3,4,6 $12.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 1,2,4,10 with 3,4,8 with 3,4,6,9 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,9 with 2,10 with 8 with 3,4,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,10 with 2,6 with 3,4,6 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,10 with 8 with 8 $2.00
Total: $80.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 22, 2015
8/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Del Mar Handicap - # 4 Big John B (Final Odds 2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Pacific Classic - # 9 Beholder (2.00) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 5 K Thirty Eight (11.80) - No Selection
Race 11 - # 10 Kafister (6.40) - "B" Selection
We were wrong about Beholder.
Very wrong.
Ridiculously wrong.
In a performance that can best be described as "Wow!" Beholder saw # 5 Red Vine (4.60) gaining on her in the turn and took off as if she had a rocket under her tail, going on to win the Pacific Classic by as many as she wanted. Just a truly remarkable effort, and one that stamps her as a legitimate contender in this Fall's Breeders' Cup Classic. Hopefully we'll do a better job then of assessing her abilities than we did today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $1,267.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Pacific Classic - # 9 Beholder (2.00) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 5 K Thirty Eight (11.80) - No Selection
Race 11 - # 10 Kafister (6.40) - "B" Selection
We were wrong about Beholder.
Very wrong.
Ridiculously wrong.
In a performance that can best be described as "Wow!" Beholder saw # 5 Red Vine (4.60) gaining on her in the turn and took off as if she had a rocket under her tail, going on to win the Pacific Classic by as many as she wanted. Just a truly remarkable effort, and one that stamps her as a legitimate contender in this Fall's Breeders' Cup Classic. Hopefully we'll do a better job then of assessing her abilities than we did today.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $1,267.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/22/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
It's Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar Saturday, with the featured event being one of three Graded Stakes on the card. We'll be looking closely at two of those contests, as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ashleyluvssugar (Morning Line 3-1)
# 3 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 20-1)
B's
# 2 Ganesh (Brz) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big John B (ML 5-2)
# 5 Little Jerry (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Power Ped (ML 12-1)
# 8 Finnegans Wake (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Ashleyluvssugar was simply out-classed last time out in the Grade 1 United Nations. The scratch of Finnegans Wake puts today's contest back on a competitive level that Ashlevlussugar should handle well.
Flamboyant (Fr) is much improved since the removal of the blinkers and the removal of, well, since he was gelded back in late April. Flamboyant has shown a closing kick that should appreciate the stretch out in distance today. I don't know if Flamboyant can win at this level, but I am confident that he will outrun his Morning Line odds.
Ganesh (Brz) enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, earned while taking the Place behind Ashleyluvssugar in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham. Big John B is the defending champ, having won this contest last year, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure in the process that he has yet to equal or surpass.
Little Jerry could be all alone on the lead for a significant portion of this contest, meaning that Little Jerry is more likely to steal this one on the front end than his Morning Line odds would suggest. Power Ped had some trouble early last time out; expect him to be more forwardly placed in the opening stages today.
RACE 9 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Red Vine (ML 6-1)
# 7 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 9-2)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Bayern (ML 6-1)
# 8 Hoppertunity (ML 5-1)
Red Vine ships in from the East for Trainer Christophe Clement having earned Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races that are greater than those earned by any of the other entrants in this field in their respective last two races. Catch a Flight (Arg) has won three of his last four contests, all Graded Stakes events.
Bayern and Hoppertunity are the uncoupled entry of Trainer Bob Baffert. Bayern's form is easy to decipher: if he can get comfortable on the lead early, then he can win. Hoppertunity switches back to Jockey Martin Garcia, who was on board for each of Hopperturnity's last two victories.
You'll notice that # 9 Beholder (ML 5-2) is not on any of our tickets. I think Beholder is an exceptional horse; but I don't think she's fast enough to keep pace with this field. So if Beholder wins, then we lose.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 8 Roy H (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Labour (Arg) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Native Treasure (ML 12-1)
# 11 Bluegrass Bronco (ML 6-1) and # 12 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List and get the afternoon off.
Roy H was squeezed at the start last time out, but was able to close well enough to just miss winning at this class level, taking the Place a half length in front of Labour (Arg). While these two seem to be relatively equal in strength, if Roy H can get a clean break today, then he will be greatly advantaged, as this field does not contain the preponderance of early speed that one is used to seeing in turf sprints.
Native Treasure should improve with the return to turf. Based on his Tomlinson Rating, Native Treasure should also appreciate the turnback in distance.
RACE 11 - Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Unfettered (ML 12-1)
# 7 Buckleberry Grey (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 10 Kafister (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Oligarch (ML 6-1)
# 8 Second Proposal (ML 9-2)
Toss out his contests against Quarter Horses, and Unfettered has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three races that are superior to Beyer par for this class level. While I will be very much surprised if Unfettered goes to Post at odds even half that of his Morning Line, he should still be a very nice price.
Buckleberry Grey took the Place against more expensive at today's distance last time out. Kafister took the Show in that same contest.
Oligarch won at this class level two starts back, albeit for different connections. Second Proposal jumps up a few rungs on the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned last time out fits well with the contenders in this field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 8 with 2,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5 with 5,7 with 7,8 with 2,7,10 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5,7 with 8 with 2,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 3,8 with 8 with 2,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 6 with 2,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 8 with 3,8 $4.00
Total: $52.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Handicap (Grade 2) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ashleyluvssugar (Morning Line 3-1)
# 3 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 20-1)
B's
# 2 Ganesh (Brz) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big John B (ML 5-2)
# 5 Little Jerry (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Power Ped (ML 12-1)
# 8 Finnegans Wake (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Ashleyluvssugar was simply out-classed last time out in the Grade 1 United Nations. The scratch of Finnegans Wake puts today's contest back on a competitive level that Ashlevlussugar should handle well.
Flamboyant (Fr) is much improved since the removal of the blinkers and the removal of, well, since he was gelded back in late April. Flamboyant has shown a closing kick that should appreciate the stretch out in distance today. I don't know if Flamboyant can win at this level, but I am confident that he will outrun his Morning Line odds.
Ganesh (Brz) enters this contest with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, earned while taking the Place behind Ashleyluvssugar in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham. Big John B is the defending champ, having won this contest last year, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure in the process that he has yet to equal or surpass.
Little Jerry could be all alone on the lead for a significant portion of this contest, meaning that Little Jerry is more likely to steal this one on the front end than his Morning Line odds would suggest. Power Ped had some trouble early last time out; expect him to be more forwardly placed in the opening stages today.
RACE 9 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Red Vine (ML 6-1)
# 7 Catch a Flight (Arg) (ML 9-2)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Bayern (ML 6-1)
# 8 Hoppertunity (ML 5-1)
Red Vine ships in from the East for Trainer Christophe Clement having earned Beyer Speed Figures in his last two races that are greater than those earned by any of the other entrants in this field in their respective last two races. Catch a Flight (Arg) has won three of his last four contests, all Graded Stakes events.
Bayern and Hoppertunity are the uncoupled entry of Trainer Bob Baffert. Bayern's form is easy to decipher: if he can get comfortable on the lead early, then he can win. Hoppertunity switches back to Jockey Martin Garcia, who was on board for each of Hopperturnity's last two victories.
You'll notice that # 9 Beholder (ML 5-2) is not on any of our tickets. I think Beholder is an exceptional horse; but I don't think she's fast enough to keep pace with this field. So if Beholder wins, then we lose.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 8 Roy H (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Labour (Arg) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Native Treasure (ML 12-1)
# 11 Bluegrass Bronco (ML 6-1) and # 12 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1) do not draw in off the Also Eligible List and get the afternoon off.
Roy H was squeezed at the start last time out, but was able to close well enough to just miss winning at this class level, taking the Place a half length in front of Labour (Arg). While these two seem to be relatively equal in strength, if Roy H can get a clean break today, then he will be greatly advantaged, as this field does not contain the preponderance of early speed that one is used to seeing in turf sprints.
Native Treasure should improve with the return to turf. Based on his Tomlinson Rating, Native Treasure should also appreciate the turnback in distance.
RACE 11 - Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Unfettered (ML 12-1)
# 7 Buckleberry Grey (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 10 Kafister (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Oligarch (ML 6-1)
# 8 Second Proposal (ML 9-2)
Toss out his contests against Quarter Horses, and Unfettered has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three races that are superior to Beyer par for this class level. While I will be very much surprised if Unfettered goes to Post at odds even half that of his Morning Line, he should still be a very nice price.
Buckleberry Grey took the Place against more expensive at today's distance last time out. Kafister took the Show in that same contest.
Oligarch won at this class level two starts back, albeit for different connections. Second Proposal jumps up a few rungs on the class ladder, but the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned last time out fits well with the contenders in this field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 8 with 2,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5 with 5,7 with 7,8 with 2,7,10 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5,7 with 8 with 2,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 3,8 with 8 with 2,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 6 with 2,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 5,7 with 8 with 3,8 $4.00
Total: $52.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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