9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 11 - The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile - # 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (Final Odds 8.40) - "C" Selection

Race 12 - The Derby City Distaff - # 4 Bell's the One (4.20) - "C" Selection

Race 13 - The Turf Classic - # 4 Digital Age (Ire) (8.60) - "C" Selection

Race 14 - The Kentucky Derby - # 18 Authentic (8.40) - "B" Selection

Congrats to Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey John Velazquez, and all the winner's connections.  Just a tremendous effort by a great horse.  And hat's off to Tiz the Law, who ran a fine race in defeat.  Truly a memorable Kentucky Derby; unlike my play, which was quite forgettable.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  6 / 4 / 4 / 18  were rewarded with a payout of $2,789.30 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"You don't become enormously successful without encountering and overcoming a number of extremely challenging problems." - Mark Victor Hansen

It's here at last, the first Saturday in, well, not May; but September.  So it goes.  But though it certainly isn't what we're used to, the Kentucky Derby is still the Kentucky Derby, North America's biggest horse race of the year.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 11 - (F) The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Morning Line 4-5)

B's

# 2 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 7 La Signare (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Belle Laura (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 She'sonthewarpath (ML 15-1) and # 5 Harmless (ML 12-1)

Newspaperofrecord (Ire) appears to have returned to the form that she displayed as a juvenile back in 2018.  Indeed, toss out her 2019 starts and Newspaperofrecord is five-for-five in her career, with four of those five victories coming in Graded Stakes.

Daddy Is a Legend probably needed that last race, which was her 2020 debut.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - (F) The Derby City Distaff (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Ce Ce (ML 3-1)

B's

# 8 Serengeti Empress (ML 9-5)

# 9 Bellafina (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Shesomajestic (ML 30-1)
# 3 Wildwood's Beauty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Bell's the One (ML 10-1)

# 6 Sally's Curlin (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Mia Mischief (ML 6-1); # 5 Crazy Sexy Munny (ML 50-1); and # 7 Lady Kate (ML 20-1)

Ce Ce, Show finisher in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar last time out, should improve with the cutback in distance.  An added plus is that Ce Ce defeated Serengeti Empress earlier this year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.

Serengeti Empress will almost certainly be quickest out of the gate.  Bellafina has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in six of her last nine starts; but Bellafina is just too talented for me to leave her off the main ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 13 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Factor This (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 6-1)

# 8 Sacred Life (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Somelikeithotbrown (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 4 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dontblamerocket (ML 15-1)
# 6 Mr Dumas (ML 12-1)

# 7 True Valour (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Spectacular Gem (ML 10-1)

Factor This enters this event with a four race winning streak; and Factor This should benefit from the rail draw.  Bowies Hero could move up going third off the layoff.

Sacred Life (Fr) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Somelikeithotbrown seems well suited to Saturday's distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 14 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 17 Tiz the Law (ML 3-5)

B's

# 10 Thousand Words (ML 15-1)

# 16 Honor A. P. (ML 5-1)

# 18 Authentic (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Max Player (ML 30-1)
# 3 Enforceable (ML 30-1)
# 4 Storm the Court (ML 50-1)
# 5 Major Fed (ML 50-1)
# 7 Money Moves (ML 30-1)
# 8 South Bend (ML 50-1)
# 9 Mr. Big News (ML 50-1)
# 11 Necker Island (ML 50-1)
# 12 Sole Volante (ML 30-1)
# 13 Attachment Rate (ML 50-1)

# 14 Winning Impression (ML 50-1)
# 15 Ny Traffic (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 50-1) and # 6 King Guillermo (ML 20-1)

While so much is different about the 2020 version of the Kentucky Derby, one thing that has remained the same is that, as it was in so many prior Derbies, the Morning Line Favorite and most likely winner Saturday is the horse that won the Florida Derby; in this case, Tiz the Law.  Indeed, Tiz the Law has put together an impressive resume, racking up six Wins in his seven career starts.

Tiz the Law looks to be a legitimate Favorite, and probably should be a big ticket single in my play.  But Tiz the Law's one defeat was also his one prior start over this main track.  Which, quite frankly, probably means nothing.  But it could mean everything.

Anyway, if Tiz the Law repeats his performance from last time out, when he won the Travers by as many as he wanted, then he's going to win Saturday.  But if Tiz the Law should regress off that effort, then I think he can be defeated.

Thousand Words is the "other" Baffert; and it would be perhaps the most fitting result for 2020 that the lesser regarded Bob Baffert trainee would win the Kentucky Derby.  Honor A. P. should improve with the increase in distance.

Contrary to many other handicappers, I think Authentic can handle ten furlongs just fine.  In my opinion Authentic's problem last time out was that he was winning too easily and got distracted.  If Authentic keeps his mind on his work, I think Authentic can spring the upset.  So it's four deep for this leg on my main ticket, with everyone else being used as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 17 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 8,9,10 with 1,2,8,9 with 10,16,17,18 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,7,8 with 10 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 3,4,5,6,7,10 with 17 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15 $6.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 11 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/29/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 1 Microrithms (Final Odds 1.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Gregorian Chant (GB) (7.70) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Pat O'Brien - # 5 C Z Rocket (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Facts Matter (3.50) - "B" Selection

Gregorian Chant (GB), winner of the second leg of the sequence, is an entrant that would usually have find his way onto my main ticket, by virtue of having taken the Show at Saturday's class level his last time out.

However, Gregorian Chant had finished behind # 2 Maestro Dearte (9.10) in each of Gregorian Chant's last two starts, as well as finishing behind # 4 Order and Law (11.40) in his most recent start prior to Saturday.  But the betting public was able to discern what I did not, which was that of that trio Gregorian Chant would be the one to run best; and Saturday became another day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 1 / 5 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $158.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/29/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"As long as one keeps searching, the answers will come." - Joan Baez

The Grade 2 Pat O'Brien, a seven furlong contest for runners three years old and up, is Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - OC 80k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Desert Law (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Microrithms (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tiger Dad (ML 6-1)
# 8 Surfing Star (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Champagneonme (ML 6-1)
# 3 Fight On (ML 4-1)
# 5 Little Juanito (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 4 McKale (ML 5-1)

For those who note such things, three runners in this field are in for the $80k tag: Microrithms, Champagneonme, and Fight On.

Desert Law was through early last time out in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, and two starts back Desert Law was two lengths back of stablemate Tiger Dad at the wire in the Thors Echo.  But Desert Law was quick in that Grade 1 effort, and Desert Law has won previously over this track; so, while I'm using both on the main ticket, I prefer Desert Law today over Tiger Dad.

Microrithms, trained by Bob Baffert, moves up in class after winning a tight one over this track last time out.  Surfing Star has been on the bench for over a year; but Surfing Star had a sharp five furlong work over this track back on the 15th, and Surfing Star has run well in the past when traveling around just one turn.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 Lincoln City (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 3 One Bad Boy (ML 4-1)
# 4 Order and Law (ML 6-1)
# 9 Border Town (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Gregorian Chant (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 2 Maestro Dearte (ML 12-1)
# 5 Route Six Six (ML 15-1)
# 6 King of Speed (ML 12-1)
# 7 Untamed Domain (ML 15-1)
# 8 Brandothebartender (ML 5-1)
# 10 Kazan (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 12 Fly to Mars (ML 3-1)

Those seeking to make a purchase at the claim box will have to look elsewhere, as (with the scratch of Fly to Mars) none of these runners are in for a tag.

Lincoln City has put together back-to-back solid efforts in his prior two starts, which suggests that Lincoln City might be able to handle the rise in class.  One Bad Boy, winner of the 2019 Queen's Plate, returns to California after being on the bench for an extended period, and has to be respected here.

Order and Law was victorious at this class level over this turf course last time out.  Border Town could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 C Z Rocket (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 5-1)
# 4 Flagstaff (ML 5-2)
# 7 Giant Expectations (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 P R Radio Star (ML 6-1)
# 3 Manhattan Up (ML 15-1)
# 8 Blameitonthelaw (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 Vertical Threat (ML 8-1)

C Z Rocket enters this event with a three race winning streak, all coming since C Z Rocket joined the barn of Trainer Peter Miller.  Law Abidin Citizen can be expected to be speed on the rail.

Flagstaff has been working well for this contest, and can be expected to improve off his prior effort in the Grade 2 Triple Bend.  Giant Expectations missed victory be just a head in last year's running of this event.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - Clm $32k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Call You Tomorrow (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 3 Facts Matter (ML 6-1)
# 10 Jan's Reserve (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Restoring Dreams (ML 15-1)
# 2 Blackout (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Pure Comedy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Truth Seeker (ML 6-1)
# 7 Alleva (ML 9-2)
# 9 Combat Zone (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 8 Ultimate Bango (ML 3-1)

Needless to say, the scratch of the Morning Line Favorite has certainly changed the complexion of this contest.  Call You Tomorrow has been working well for his return to competition, and Call You Tomorrow can be expected to improve with the return to one turn racing.

Facts Matter and Jan's Reserve are two that could improve with the cutback in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 5 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,6,7,8 with 3,4,9,11 with 1,4,5,7 with 3,5,10 $96.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5 with 11 with 5 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,2,5,6,7,8,10 with 5 with 5 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2,3,8 with 5 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 5 with 1,2,4,6,7,9 $3.00

Total: $106.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/22/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 4 Take the One O One (Final Odds 3.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 7 Red Lark (Ire) (19.10) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 5 Maximum Security (0.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Salvator Mundi (4.60) - "B" Selection

Not using Take the One O One on the main ticket was an amateurishly bad error on my part; as it's quite clear (certainly in retrospect) that Take the One O One projected to be lone speed in the contest.  But I find it difficult to blame myself for not using Red Lark (Ire) on the main ticket; as Red Lark had finished behind two others in the field last time out, and behind at least two more in her three starts prior to that.  But misses are misses, regardless of their level of reasonableness; and their presence in my play made Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 7 / 5 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $524.80 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/22/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"If you can find a path with no obstacles, it probably doesn't lead anywhere." - Frank A. Clark

It's Pacific Classic Day in Southern California, and the good people at Del Mar have put together an excellent card featuring five Graded Stakes.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Extra Hope (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 3 Potantico (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kershaw (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Unbroken Star (ML 12-1)
# 2 Respect the Hustle (ML 12-1)
# 4 Take the One O One (ML 8-1)
# 7 Loud Mouth (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 El Tigre Terrible (ML 4-1)

Extra Hope is getting significant class relief here, and probably would be a big ticket single were he not coming off an extended layoff, this being Extra Hope's 2020 debut.  Potantico and Kershaw filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this track at today's distance last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 10 Laura's Light (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Miss Extra (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 4 Warren's Showtime (ML 6-1)
# 8 Neige Blanche (Fr) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Carpe Vinum (ML 15-1)
# 2 California Kook (ML 15-1)
# 5 Aqua Seaform Shame (ML 12-1)
# 7 Red Lark (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Parkour (ML 15-1)
# 11 Guitty (Fr) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 6 Trickle In (ML 6-1)

Laura's Light, four-for-five lifetime on the grass, appears to be in top form entering this contest.  Miss Extra (Fr) and Neige Blanche (Fr) are both making their first career start outside their native France; and, in my opinion, both deserve serious consideration based upon the quality of competition that they each defeated overseas.

Warren's Showtime took the Show behind Laura's Light last time out in the Grade 2 San Clemente; and while Warren's Showtime also finished behind Guitty (Fr) in that contest, I think Warren's Showtime stands the better chance of moving up with the added distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Higher Power (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Maximum Security (ML 1-1)

C's

# 1 Midcourt (ML 7-1)
# 3 Mirinaque (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Dark Vader (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sharp Samurai (ML 8-1)

Note sure why, but for whatever reason my Brisnet Past Performances don't list Jason Servis as the previous trainer of Maximum Security.  Probably just an oversight; but a rather odd and conspicuous oversight.

Anyway, a strong case could be made that Maximum Security should be the top selection here.  Indeed, a strong case could be made that Maximum Security should be a big ticket single here.  And later this evening, I may find myself wishing that I had made that case.

I certainly think that the added distance today will help Maximum Security increase his advantage over Midcourt, who was just a nose behind Maximum Security at the wire in the Grade 2 San Diego last time out.  But I also think that Higher Power, Show finisher in the aforementioned San Diego, and winner of last year's running of this event, could very much benefit from the stretch out to ten furlongs; so much so that I like Higher Power's chances of winning today more than I like Maximum Security.

So that's how I'm playing this leg of the sequence; two deep on the big ticket, Higher Power over Maximum Security; with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Shadow Sphinx (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Tiberius Mercurius (ML 5-1)
# 3 Ostini (ML 15-1)
# 5 Salvator Mundi (ML 9-2)
# 7 Three Ay Em (ML 8-1)
# 10 Desmond Doss (ML 8-1)
# 13 Navy Armed Guard (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Bold Endeavor (ML 20-1)
# 6 Colosi (ML 15-1)
# 9 Of Good Report (ML 20-1)
# 11 M Town Gem (ML 12-1)
# 12 Kneedeepinsnow (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 8 Southern King (ML 8-1)

Shadow Sphinx was a clear winner last time out in a Starter Optional Claimer at Santa Anita; and Shadow Sphinx has run well in the past over this turf course.  Salvator Mundi and Tiberius Mercurius filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.

Ostini is moving up in class after defeating state bred rivals over this turf course last time out; but Ostini has run well in the past against open company.  Three Ay Em could move up with a cleaner trip.

Desmond Doss could improve going second off the layoff.  Navy Armed Guard ships in from the east and may enjoy being stationed in San Diego.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 10 with 2 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 3,4,8,10 with 2,5 with 2,3,4,5,7,10,13 $84.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,7 with 10 with 2 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,5,7,9,11 with 2 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 10 with 1,3,4,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 10 with 2 with 1,6,9,11,12 $2.50

Total: $94.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:36 EDT / 5:36 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo