It's just about Post Time for the Breeders' Cup; which, as regular readers already know, means that this blog is about to go dark. Good Lord willing I will be spending the next few days at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, NV, enjoying great service courtesy of Bert Cirincione, the Director of the Race and Sports Operations, along with the company of great friends. I may be able to get a few Tweets out during that time; but I can virtually guarantee that, as usual, there just won't be enough time for a full blog post.
As regards advice, I recommend as always that you take advantage of the free resources offered on the internet. Be sure to check out the usual spots that I link to in my Saturday morning tweets, as I'm sure that they will each be filled with Breeders' Cup insights. I'll just mention a few here:
- Free DRF Formulator PPs for the Breeders' Cup Distaff as well as the Breeders' Cup Classic, along with video analysis by Dan Illman along with Mike Beer and/or Matt Bernier will be available at Drf.com's Race of the Day;
- Free Brisnet PPs for the Breeders' Cup races (along with a whole host of other contests) can be found by going to to this blog post and clicking the appropriate links by owner, trainer, or sire (for example, clicking the link for Trainer Graham Motion would lead you here, where you will find links for every race where a horse trained by Graham Motion is entered);
- If you're willing to divulge your email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free 2015 Breeders' Cup Wager Guide, a very fine piece of literature that offers some interesting tidbits as well as analysis and betting strategies from Steve Byk, Mike Battaglia, Bob Neumeier, and others;
- Candice Hare and Derbyologist host a Breeders' Cup Round Table discussion that's available here on You Tube, along with a Breeders' Cup preview that can be found here;
- Claire Novak, Ellis Starr, and Tom LaMarra preview the Breeders' Cup Classic on Blood-Horse's That Handicapping Show on You Tube.
As for me, I just have two bits of advice to offer. The first is to remember that, because of the nature of the Breeders' Cup races, virtually every horse entered has a legitimate chance to win. No one is prepping in these contests; all runners will be trying their best. Therefore, don't be afraid to take a shot on a horse that hasn't been heavily touted, and pay close attention to those runners that are being ignored on the board.
My second, and more important piece of advice, is HAVE FUN! The Breeders' Cup is the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; these are your days, carved out of the calendar just for you. Enjoy them! Because, quite frankly, if you're not having fun, why bother?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Sunday, October 25, 2015
10/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Carlsbad Mountain (Final Odds 4.00) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Win the Space (5.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Pay the Fine (3.30) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Cass in Stone (1.90*) - "B" Selection
We started well and ended well, but the in between was not so well. Not much to say about today other than to point out the obvious, which is that you're not going to cash a lot of tickets if you can't get any of your "A" Selections home.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 4 / 11 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $408.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Win the Space (5.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Pay the Fine (3.30) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Cass in Stone (1.90*) - "B" Selection
We started well and ended well, but the in between was not so well. Not much to say about today other than to point out the obvious, which is that you're not going to cash a lot of tickets if you can't get any of your "A" Selections home.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 4 / 11 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $408.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Since the Breeders' Cup will be elsewhere this year, Sunday is the final day of the current meet at Santa Anita. The Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy is on the card today; should be a good one, but since it'll be run as Race 5 it won't be a part of our play, as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 American Blend (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Planet Sunshine (ML 7-2)
# 8 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 6-1)
# 10 Qatar's Pearl (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Captain Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cant Do the Danse (ML 4-1) and # 6 Dekko (Arg) (ML 5-1) have been scratched.
American Blend was less than a length behind the winner at the wire while taking the Place two starts back at this class level. Planet Sunshine took the Show against more expensive two starts back; but that's been Plant Sunshine's only in the money finish since leaving the barn of Trainer Art Sherman.
Carlsbad Mountain could be the quickest in this field out of the gate. Qatar's Pearl missed by just a neck at this class level two starts back. Captain Corrigan had a nice bullet work over this main track last Sunday; but the jump up the class ladder is a concern.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 China Girl Lover (ML 4-1)
# 11 Chief of Staff (ML 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 7 Got Even (ML 9-2)
# 5 You Know I Know (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
China Girl Lover has won both of his 2015 starts, and has finished in the Exacta in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track. Chief of Staff missed winning at this class level last time out by just a neck. Perhaps today will be the day that Got Even decides not to settle for a minor award.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Odin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Global Magician (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Wildcat Sailor (ML 6-1)
# 6 Circle the Moon (ML 15-1)
# 9 Smokey's Legacy (ML 8-1)
Odin took the Place at this class level the last time he charged down the hill. Global Magician has shown the ability to compete at this level and higher; though Global Magician has also settled for more than his fair share of minor awards.
Wildcat Sailor tries the turf for the first time; his pedigree suggests that he should handle it well. Circle the Moon drops in cheap after an extended vacation; while that's certainly a red flag, the fact that Mike Smith will be on board means that Circle the Moon's chances must be respected. Smokey's Legacy should improve with the return to turf.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Travel Bound (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lucky Reality (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Popsracer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Cass in Stone (ML 7-2)
# 9 Resistanceisfutile (ML 6-1)
# 14 Where's Bubba (ML 4-1)
C's
# 7 Da Jenius (ML 12-1)
# 3 Born to Serve (No Line) and # 13 Cape Royal (NL) are program scratches.
Travel Bound should improve with the return to dirt, along with the drop in class. Lucky Reality may also improve with the return to dirt.
Popsracer wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve with the class drop. Cass in Stone has taken the Place in each of his last two races, both at today's class level. Where's Bubba looks to be quickest, but with the outside draw he may have to work out a stalking trip.
Resistanceisfutile took the Show at this class level last time out. Da Jenius drops in for a tag for the first time in his career.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,8,10 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 4,5,6,8,9,14 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 2,7 with 5,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 4,6,9 with 5,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 7 $2.00
Total: $70.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:43 EDT / 3:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 American Blend (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 3 Planet Sunshine (ML 7-2)
# 8 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 6-1)
# 10 Qatar's Pearl (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Captain Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cant Do the Danse (ML 4-1) and # 6 Dekko (Arg) (ML 5-1) have been scratched.
American Blend was less than a length behind the winner at the wire while taking the Place two starts back at this class level. Planet Sunshine took the Show against more expensive two starts back; but that's been Plant Sunshine's only in the money finish since leaving the barn of Trainer Art Sherman.
Carlsbad Mountain could be the quickest in this field out of the gate. Qatar's Pearl missed by just a neck at this class level two starts back. Captain Corrigan had a nice bullet work over this main track last Sunday; but the jump up the class ladder is a concern.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 China Girl Lover (ML 4-1)
# 11 Chief of Staff (ML 3-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 7 Got Even (ML 9-2)
# 5 You Know I Know (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
China Girl Lover has won both of his 2015 starts, and has finished in the Exacta in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track. Chief of Staff missed winning at this class level last time out by just a neck. Perhaps today will be the day that Got Even decides not to settle for a minor award.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Odin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Global Magician (ML 5-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Wildcat Sailor (ML 6-1)
# 6 Circle the Moon (ML 15-1)
# 9 Smokey's Legacy (ML 8-1)
Odin took the Place at this class level the last time he charged down the hill. Global Magician has shown the ability to compete at this level and higher; though Global Magician has also settled for more than his fair share of minor awards.
Wildcat Sailor tries the turf for the first time; his pedigree suggests that he should handle it well. Circle the Moon drops in cheap after an extended vacation; while that's certainly a red flag, the fact that Mike Smith will be on board means that Circle the Moon's chances must be respected. Smokey's Legacy should improve with the return to turf.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Travel Bound (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lucky Reality (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Popsracer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Cass in Stone (ML 7-2)
# 9 Resistanceisfutile (ML 6-1)
# 14 Where's Bubba (ML 4-1)
C's
# 7 Da Jenius (ML 12-1)
# 3 Born to Serve (No Line) and # 13 Cape Royal (NL) are program scratches.
Travel Bound should improve with the return to dirt, along with the drop in class. Lucky Reality may also improve with the return to dirt.
Popsracer wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve with the class drop. Cass in Stone has taken the Place in each of his last two races, both at today's class level. Where's Bubba looks to be quickest, but with the outside draw he may have to work out a stalking trip.
Resistanceisfutile took the Show at this class level last time out. Da Jenius drops in for a tag for the first time in his career.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,8,10 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 4,5,6,8,9,14 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 2,7 with 5,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 4,6,9 with 5,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 7 $2.00
Total: $70.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:43 EDT / 3:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 24, 2015
10/24/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 9 Jury (Final Odds 2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Twilight Derby - # 3 Om (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Big Bear - # 5 Dortmund (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Canada (3.90) - "B" Selection
We spread pretty wide in the first two legs in an effort to beat the chalk; so when the Favorites won each of those contests by daylight, we were left with a pretty large ticket promising some pretty small payouts.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Mr. Roary (19.80) - $ 119.85 Finish: 7th
# 3 Opening Roads (26.00) - $168.80 Finish: 9th
# 5 Strong Values (7.00) - $70.15 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Unapologetic (10.30) - $80.65 Finish: 6th
# 8 Quality Line (12.00) - $109.70 Finish: 5th
# 9 Above Board (12.30) - $81.05 Finish: 10th
# 10 British Bulldog (2.70*) - $37.05 Finish: 8th
# 11 Aztec Warrior (4.70) - $36.45 Finish: 4th
Since British Bulldog was our "A" Selection, we would have had his payout trebled courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket.
But all that is what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 3 / 5 / 7 which paid $41.15 for a fifty cent wager. As our investment was $57.00, we cash at a loss. Which, while significantly preferable to not cashing at all, was not our goal when we placed our wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Twilight Derby - # 3 Om (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Big Bear - # 5 Dortmund (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Canada (3.90) - "B" Selection
We spread pretty wide in the first two legs in an effort to beat the chalk; so when the Favorites won each of those contests by daylight, we were left with a pretty large ticket promising some pretty small payouts.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Mr. Roary (19.80) - $ 119.85 Finish: 7th
# 3 Opening Roads (26.00) - $168.80 Finish: 9th
# 5 Strong Values (7.00) - $70.15 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Unapologetic (10.30) - $80.65 Finish: 6th
# 8 Quality Line (12.00) - $109.70 Finish: 5th
# 9 Above Board (12.30) - $81.05 Finish: 10th
# 10 British Bulldog (2.70*) - $37.05 Finish: 8th
# 11 Aztec Warrior (4.70) - $36.45 Finish: 4th
Since British Bulldog was our "A" Selection, we would have had his payout trebled courtesy of our supplemental "All A Entries" ticket.
But all that is what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 3 / 5 / 7 which paid $41.15 for a fifty cent wager. As our investment was $57.00, we cash at a loss. Which, while significantly preferable to not cashing at all, was not our goal when we placed our wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/24/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
After a one week excursion to the East, our action returns to the left coast, just in time for the final weekend of the Santa Anita Fall Meet. The featured event Saturday is the former Oak Tree Derby, now known as The Twilight Derby; it's Race 7 on the card, so we'll be giving it a close look as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Iron Rob (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Jury (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Jes Jaa (ML 5-1)
# 2 Arabian Leopard (ML 7-2)
# 3 Police Escort (ML 8-1)
# 5 Papa Papa Papa (ML 10-1)
# 8 Oppidum (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Xanto (ML 15-1)
# 7 Nothingelsematters (ML 6-1)
Iron Rob has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field of juveniles; in fact, either of Iron Rob's Beyers from his past two races would be career bests for anyone else in this field.
So why the big spread? Well, while Iron Rob's Beyers stand above the rest of the field, they are a significant distance away from par for this class of competition. In addition, Iron Rob has finished in the Trifecta only once in his four race career; and that was two starts back, when he was a well beaten second, finishing close to a half dozen lengths behind the winner.
So Iron Rob has yet to earn a Beyer Speed Figure close to par, has finished out of the money in three of his four career starts, and, because he has already made four starts, does not appear to be a candidate to make a significant move forward. For what he's done so far combined with what should be good odds Iron Rob merits being an "A" Selection; but the unlikelihood of Iron Rob improving significantly over his past efforts means that we need to cover ourselves here with a wide spread.
Jury is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. The descendants of Jury's sire, Tale of the Cat, win more than their fair share of debut efforts.
Jes Jaa and Police Escort are a pair of first time starters trained by John Sadler and Bob Baffert respectively. Jes Jaa and Police Escort are both by sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.
Arabian Leopard, trained by Bob Baffert, has disappointed badly as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts. Still, Arabian Leopard merits another chance based upon the troubled trips he has received.
Papa Papa Papa, trained by Mark Glatt, and Oppidum, trained by Bob Baffert, are each making their second career start after having shown good early speed in their respective debuts. Xanto and Nothingelsematters are on the ticket because they're the only two runners left in the field who aren't "A" or "B" Selections; so now we'e got all bases covered.
RACE 7 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Om (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Mister Brightside (Ire) (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Hunt (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Soul Driver (ML 9-2)
# 4 Ground Rules (ML 6-1) and # 7 Daddy D T (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Om, winner of the Del Mar Derby last time out, probably won't get a trip as smooth as he did in that event; but Om looks to be at the top of his game, so he may not need it. Mister Brightside (Ire) makes his North American debut after winning a pair of Handicap Stakes at Newmarket. Mister Brightside showed good early foot in his contests in Great Britain; those who do so tend to do well in North America. Conversely, Hunt (Ire) and Soul Driver, look to be the ones who will be running best late if it should all fall apart on the front end.
RACE 8 - The Big Bear $70k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Dortmund (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Point Piper (ML 4-1)
# 1 Cat Burglar (ML 9-2) has been scratched.
Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert, makes his first start after finishing fourth in The Preakness back in May. Dortmund's works were far from sharp up to and including the five furlongs he put in on September 25; however, after skipping a week, Dortmund came back to scorch the morning track with a pair of bullets.
Dortmund is the clear class of this field, and has shown the ability in the past to win off just works. On the other hand, this will be Dortmund's first time facing older horses. It's also fair to wonder just how hard Dortmund will be ridden today, as his connections certainly didn't put him back into training just to win a $70k listed stake.
So for those reasons, it seems prudent to have a backup on the ticket. If Dortmund should fail to fire, Point Piper, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 British Bulldog (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Canada (ML 4-1)
# 8 Quality Line (ML 10-1)
# 9 Above Board (ML 8-1)
# 11 Aztec Warrior (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 12-1)
# 3 Opening Roads (ML 15-1)
British Bulldog took the Place at this class level at today's distance in his debut last time out, though he seemed to have had some difficulty making it the full eight furlongs.
Strong Values, Unapologetic, and Canada, each have two career starts, and each appears capable of making a significant move forward. Quality Line tries turf for the first time; if his early speed from the main track carries over, Quality Line could really smoke the grass today.
Above Board, trained by Bob Baffert, and Aztec Warrior, trained by Doug O'Neill and sired by Kitten's Joy, are a pair of first time starters who look to be ready to run. Mr. Roary and Opening Roads are another pair of debut runners who could find themselves in the Winner's Circle today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 with 2,3 with 5 with 5,6,7,8,9,10,11 $49.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 5 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 1,6 with 5 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 3 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 1,3 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Iron Rob (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Jury (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Jes Jaa (ML 5-1)
# 2 Arabian Leopard (ML 7-2)
# 3 Police Escort (ML 8-1)
# 5 Papa Papa Papa (ML 10-1)
# 8 Oppidum (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Xanto (ML 15-1)
# 7 Nothingelsematters (ML 6-1)
Iron Rob has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field of juveniles; in fact, either of Iron Rob's Beyers from his past two races would be career bests for anyone else in this field.
So why the big spread? Well, while Iron Rob's Beyers stand above the rest of the field, they are a significant distance away from par for this class of competition. In addition, Iron Rob has finished in the Trifecta only once in his four race career; and that was two starts back, when he was a well beaten second, finishing close to a half dozen lengths behind the winner.
So Iron Rob has yet to earn a Beyer Speed Figure close to par, has finished out of the money in three of his four career starts, and, because he has already made four starts, does not appear to be a candidate to make a significant move forward. For what he's done so far combined with what should be good odds Iron Rob merits being an "A" Selection; but the unlikelihood of Iron Rob improving significantly over his past efforts means that we need to cover ourselves here with a wide spread.
Jury is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. The descendants of Jury's sire, Tale of the Cat, win more than their fair share of debut efforts.
Jes Jaa and Police Escort are a pair of first time starters trained by John Sadler and Bob Baffert respectively. Jes Jaa and Police Escort are both by sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.
Arabian Leopard, trained by Bob Baffert, has disappointed badly as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts. Still, Arabian Leopard merits another chance based upon the troubled trips he has received.
Papa Papa Papa, trained by Mark Glatt, and Oppidum, trained by Bob Baffert, are each making their second career start after having shown good early speed in their respective debuts. Xanto and Nothingelsematters are on the ticket because they're the only two runners left in the field who aren't "A" or "B" Selections; so now we'e got all bases covered.
RACE 7 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Om (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Mister Brightside (Ire) (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Hunt (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Soul Driver (ML 9-2)
# 4 Ground Rules (ML 6-1) and # 7 Daddy D T (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Om, winner of the Del Mar Derby last time out, probably won't get a trip as smooth as he did in that event; but Om looks to be at the top of his game, so he may not need it. Mister Brightside (Ire) makes his North American debut after winning a pair of Handicap Stakes at Newmarket. Mister Brightside showed good early foot in his contests in Great Britain; those who do so tend to do well in North America. Conversely, Hunt (Ire) and Soul Driver, look to be the ones who will be running best late if it should all fall apart on the front end.
RACE 8 - The Big Bear $70k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Dortmund (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Cat Burglar (ML 9-2) has been scratched.
Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert, makes his first start after finishing fourth in The Preakness back in May. Dortmund's works were far from sharp up to and including the five furlongs he put in on September 25; however, after skipping a week, Dortmund came back to scorch the morning track with a pair of bullets.
Dortmund is the clear class of this field, and has shown the ability in the past to win off just works. On the other hand, this will be Dortmund's first time facing older horses. It's also fair to wonder just how hard Dortmund will be ridden today, as his connections certainly didn't put him back into training just to win a $70k listed stake.
So for those reasons, it seems prudent to have a backup on the ticket. If Dortmund should fail to fire, Point Piper, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 British Bulldog (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Canada (ML 4-1)
# 8 Quality Line (ML 10-1)
# 9 Above Board (ML 8-1)
# 11 Aztec Warrior (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 12-1)
# 3 Opening Roads (ML 15-1)
British Bulldog took the Place at this class level at today's distance in his debut last time out, though he seemed to have had some difficulty making it the full eight furlongs.
Strong Values, Unapologetic, and Canada, each have two career starts, and each appears capable of making a significant move forward. Quality Line tries turf for the first time; if his early speed from the main track carries over, Quality Line could really smoke the grass today.
Above Board, trained by Bob Baffert, and Aztec Warrior, trained by Doug O'Neill and sired by Kitten's Joy, are a pair of first time starters who look to be ready to run. Mr. Roary and Opening Roads are another pair of debut runners who could find themselves in the Winner's Circle today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 with 2,3 with 5 with 5,6,7,8,9,10,11 $49.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 5 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 1,6 with 5 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 3 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 1,3 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 18, 2015
10/18/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 9 Lewis Bay (Final Odds 1.35*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Tammy the Torpedo (1.45*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Joking (2.80) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 9 Catapult (3.70) - "B" Selection
We were right to be suspicious of the chances of # 2 Grand Bili (0.60*) in Race 9, who wound up taking the Place. Unfortunately, we were suspicious with the wrong back up runners, as we had no part of the winner in that contest; and therefore, for the second day in a row, found ourselves holding a ticket with just three out of four winners.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $177.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - # 1 Tammy the Torpedo (1.45*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Joking (2.80) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 9 Catapult (3.70) - "B" Selection
We were right to be suspicious of the chances of # 2 Grand Bili (0.60*) in Race 9, who wound up taking the Place. Unfortunately, we were suspicious with the wrong back up runners, as we had no part of the winner in that contest; and therefore, for the second day in a row, found ourselves holding a ticket with just three out of four winners.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $177.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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