"All muscle and business, Pincay was the strongest finisher in the game, who seldom lost a photo finish." - Ray Kerrison - The New York Post
"It was then I saw something I had never seen a "bug rider" do in the past. As a matter of fact, Angel Cordero was the only rider who could make the move look as easy as Libby did. She whipped left handed, then three or four jumps before the wire, she switched to the right. I could see her move clearly. She perfectly timed the finish line and instead of hitting the mare, she flipped her stick and tapped Crystal Run under the chin, barely making contact. It caused the mare to raise her head and I knew she'd win the photo finish." - Peter D. Tattersall - "Or Else...!"
History; legend; fiction; into exactly which category does a jockey's ability to win a photo finish fall? Are there really certain jockeys that consistently fare better than others when the race is tight and the finish is too close to call? Or is winning a photo finish mostly a matter of chance; where sometimes one jockey wins, other times another jockey wins, and it all evens out in the end?
Well. before I get anyone's hopes up, let me assure you that this post will not answer all those questions; certainly not definitively. But maybe this post can help us start to answer those questions; laying a foundation we can build upon so that, in time, we just might know more about the subject than we did when we first began. Or maybe this post will just give us something else to have some fun with, and argue about the next time we converse. Time will tell.
Anyway, a lot of the answers to the questions about which jockeys do best in a photo finish depends on how you frame the questions. Are we interested in Win photos only? Should winning a tight photo for other positions count too? And how are we to define a "photo finish"? Is it anything less than length? Less than a neck? Less than a head? And how do we decide who's the "best"? Is it just the most photo wins? The fewest photo losses? Perhaps the best photo differential (wins vs losses)?
So, with all that as background, here's the parameters I set up for this study:
I would look at all race charts for the recently completed Del Mar meet;
I would record each time a horse finished ahead of a competitor by a nose for one of the top four positions in the race (i.e., finished in the Superfecta);
I would record the winning and losing jockeys;
I would note the horses involved, and their respective Post Time odds.
Having gathered that data, I would determine which jockeys won the most photo finishes during the 2012 Del Mar meet, and which had the best photo finish differential (more wins than losses).
Before I post the results. does anyone want to phantom a guess as to which jockeys came out on top? Take your time; consider your answers. Here, I'll even let you play a little music while you think it over:
Alright; for the 2012 Del Mar meet, there were ninety-eight times when the placement of a horse in one of the top four positions was decided by a nose. The jockeys that were on the winning end of those finishes three or more times are as follows:
Jockey Finished Ahead By a Nose
Rafael Bejarano...............13
Joseph Talamo................11
Garrett Gomez................10
Victor Espinoza................7
Edwin Maldonado.............7
Eswan Flores...................6
Alonso Quinonez..............6
Martin Garcia...................4
Juan Hernandez...............4
Alex Bisono.....................3
Kevin Krigger...................3
Corey Nakatani................3
Martin Pedroza................3
Jose Valdivia Jr................3
Just as a point of reference, the jockeys with the most first place finishes (by all margins) for the Del Mar meet were, in order: Bejarano; Talamo; Gomez; Maldonado; Garcia; and Espinoza. And in the "Having a Good Day Department", all three of Nakatani's photo finishes above were for the Win, and all occurred on the same day (August 12, in Races 3, 7, and 8).
OK; now for the flip side; the jockeys that were on the wrong end of photo finish three or more times:
Jockey Finished Behind By a Nose
Rafael Bejarano..............12
Victor Espinoza...............9
Joseph Talamo................8
Garrett Gomez................7
Kevin Krigger..................7
Martin Pedroza...............7
Agapito Delgadillo...........6
Edwin Maldonado...........6
Brice Blanc....................4
David Flores...................4
Juan Hernandez..............4
Martin Garcia.................3
Alonso Quinonez............3
Jose Valdivia Jr...............3
Patrick Valenzuela..........3
Quite a bit of similarity with the first list, at least on top; but also several new names that weren't on the first list.
Alright; let's put it all together, and see who won more photos than they lost:
Best Jockey Differential (Ahead By a Nose Minus Behind By a Nose)
Eswan Flores..................+5
Garrett Gomez................+3
Alonso Quinonez.............+3
Joseph Talamo................+3
Alex Bisono....................+2
Omar Figueroa................+2
Aaron Gryder..................+2
Surprised?
As for the flip side:
Worst Jockey Differential (Ahead By a Nose Minus Behind By a Nose)
Agapito Delgadillo............-4
Kevin Krigger...................-4
Martin Pedroza................-4
Brice Blanc.....................-3
Patrick Valenzuela..........-3
Victor Espinoza..............-2
David Flores...................-2
Now, keep in mind that all these numbers are based on just one meet; and a Summer meet, at that; so small sample size caveats apply. But, as I mentioned towards the beginning of this post, I think this is a good starting point; Good Lord willing, as time goes on, we'll be able to add more meets from the Southern California circuit, and watch as the full picture develops.
Oh, for those who are wondering how the "better" horse fared in close finishes: in the ninety-eight instances where the placement of a horse in one of the top four positions was decided by a nose, the photo was won by the horse with the lower Post Time odds exactly one-half the time; with the horse with the higher Post Time odds winning the other half (49-49).
I've uploaded the spreadsheet as a Google doc; so hopefully it will be easily accessible to all. You'll notice there are five tabs, as I've broken down the data based upon Finish Position (Win; Place; Show; and Fourth) while the first tab contains all ninety-eight occurrences. You'll also note that some races appear twice; this is because, in some races, more than one of the top four positions was decided by a nose. For that reason, it's possible for a jockey to have both won and lost a photo in the same race. For example, in Race 5 on August 1, Jose Valdivia Jr. lost the photo for Place to Martin Garcia, but won the photo for Show over Alonso Quinonez.
Anyway, play around with the data, and have some fun with it. Oh, and if you think you spot an error, please let me know, so that I can make the necessary corrections.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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