Hopefully everyone enjoyed their holiday earlier this week, as we now come upon the final Saturday card for 2019. A bit of history to note, as it was on this day, December 28, in 2014 that Runhappy won his debut in Race 9 @ Turfway. Finally a programming note: while I won't have a column here for New Year's Eve nor New Year's Day, for those who are playing either or both of those cards, please be aware that those races will be run during the afternoon hours, not at night, with a first race Post Time of 1:10 EST / 10:10 PST both days. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Hail to the Chief (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 1 Subliminalcriminal (ML 4-1)
# 5 Gold Account (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gold Endeavor (ML 7-2)
# 12 Katama Bay (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 Major Silas (ML 15-1)
# 3 Machine Gunner (ML 30-1)
# 6 Mr. Axel (ML 20-1)
# 7 Have a Plan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Datza Five Oh (ML 30-1)
# 11 Bird in the Hat (ML 12-1)
# 13 Drakesboro Wildcat (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 4 Tradin Up (ML 6-1) and # 14 Peerless Brown (ML 12-1)
Hail to the Chief, trained by Wesley Ward, took the Show at this class level at Churchill Downs last time out. Subliminalcriminal, trained by Kenny McPeek, took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Gold Account seems to have been working well for this, his debut. Gold Endeavor took the Place at this class level two starts back and may improve with the blinkers coming back off.
Katama Bay, trained by Steve Asmussen, should improve off that last effort. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Bivian B (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 7 Noble Destiny (ML 5-1)
# 10 Magna Belle (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 On the Come (ML 30-1)
# 2 Fleetress (ML 10-1)
# 3 Treasure Wilburnya (ML 10-1)
# 4 Too Crowded (ML 8-1)
# 5 Nitassweetpea (ML 30-1)
# 6 Jr's Joy (ML 20-1)
# 8 Passionate Star (ML 8-1)
# 11 Green Garnet (ML 5-1)
# 12 Nosy Parker (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Templesis (ML 5-1) and # 14 Kitty Zip (ML 5-2)
Note that this race is being run in two divisions, as Race 8 has the identical conditions.
Bivian B has run well in the past over this track, and Bivian B appears to be in good form, having taken the Show in each of his last two starts against more expensive stock. Noble Destiny and Magna Belle look to be the ones running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Eagle Pass (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 2 Franknjymme (ML 4-1)
# 5 Ucanthankmelater (ML 8-1)
# 7 Times Square (ML 12-1)
# 9 Torazo (ML 7-2)
# 10 Animus (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Fine Tune (ML 15-1)
# 3 Ransack (ML 30-1)
# 4 Untraceable (ML 5-1)
# 11 Uncle Mitcho (ML 30-1)
# 12 Machtree (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 California Swing (ML 12-1) as well as the Also Eligibles, # 13 United Stand (ML 20-1), and # 14 Cloud to Ground (ML 20-1)
Eagle Pass, very popular at the claim box of late, showed little while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out at Churchill Downs, and should improve off that effort. Franknjymme ran well in his one prior try over this main track, and Franknjymme fits well here on class.
Ucanthankmelater could move up with the cutback in distance. Times Square graduated last time going twelve furlongs over this track. Times Square also ran well in his only other try over this track, at least until he decided to toss his mount.
Torazo won at this class level over the turf at Indianapolis last time out. Animus gets the blinkers put back on, a move with which Trainer Tommy Drury has done well of late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Aspens Little Zip (ML 7-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 She Got It (ML 15-1)
# 2 Rubys Memory (ML 10-1)
# 3 Flash n' Dance (ML 3-1)
# 4 La Dama (ML 10-1)
# 5 Sheza Fast (ML 50-1)
# 6 Hope and a Dream (ML 5-1)
# 7 Bank Numbers (ML 50-1)
# 8 Don't Dally (ML 30-1)
# 11 Spoofy Doo (ML 30-1)
# 12 My Temple (ML 8-1)
# 14 Patsy J (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 10 Alberta Maximus (ML 50-1) and # 13 Fancy M (ML 30-1)
Note that this race is being run in two divisions, as Race 6 has the identical conditions.
Aspens Little Zip took the Place over this track while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite against more expensive stock last time out.
If you're a little squeamish about singling in the nightcap, then She's Got It, who took the Place at this class level at Belterra Park (nee River Downs) last time out could be live at a price. Another to consider is Patsy J, who draws in off the Also Eligible list, and should benefit from the class drop. But I decided to go one deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 9 with 8 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,5,9,10,12 with 7,9,10 with 2,5,7,8,9,10 with 9 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,7,8,11,13 with 9 with 8 with 9 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,11,12 with 8 with 9 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 1,3,4,11,12 with 9 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 8 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,14 $5.50
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:12 EST / 5:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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