10/17/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Life is inherently risky.  There is only one big risk you should avoid at all costs, and that is the risk of doing nothing." - Denis Waitley

The California Flag, a six and a half furlong charge down the hill, is Sunday's featured race in Arcadia.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Hapi Hapi (Morning Line 8-1)

B’s

# 4 El Tigre Terrible (ML 5-2)

# 5 Big Story (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Burnin Turf (ML 3-1)

# 3 Squalotoro (ML 10-1)

# 6 Betito (ML 3-1)

# 7 Good Bye Putin (ML 6-1)

For those who note such things, El Tigre Terrible and Betito are the only two runners in this field that will be leaving the gate with a price tag on their head.

Hapi Hapi took the Show each of the last two times that he competed at this class level on the dirt going around two turns.  El Tigre Terrible is getting significant class relief in this contest.  Big Story could do better with the return to Santa Anita.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - [S] The California Flag $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 4 North County Guy (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Give Me the Lute (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Ground Attack (ML 20-1)
# 3 Tiger Dad (ML 20-1)

# 5 Loud Mouth (ML 8-1)

# 6 Unbridled Ethos (ML 12-1)
# 7 Whooping Jay (ML 4-1)
# 8 Desmond Doss (ML 6-1)
# 9 Indian Peak (ML 6-1)

If North County Guy repeats his effort from last time out, then he should be the one getting his picture taken when this event is over.  Give Me the Lute took the Place in the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Candy Runner (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Measureofdevotion (ML 3-1)

# 6 Scream and Shout (ML 5-2)

# 9 Lunatic (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Life's Emotions (ML 30-1)
# 3 Mistaka (ML 50-1)
# 7 Return to Harbor (ML 20-1)

# 8 Winter Star (ML 12-1)

# 10 B'esame Me Mucho (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Lookin At Sweetie (No Line)

I'm going to draw a line through Candy Runner's last race at Los Al and instead focus on the contest prior to that, at Oaklawn, when Candy Runner was able to make the early lead against more expensive stock, and then hold on for the Place.

Measureofdevotion missed graduation by just a neck at this class level last time out.  Scream and Shout ran well over this main track against non-claiming maidens in her debut back in June.  Lunatic should benefit from the class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 50k/N1X - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 She's So Nice (Ire) (ML 15-1)

B’s

# 1 Xmas Surprise (ML 15-1)

# 2 Isn't She Lovely (ML 6-1)

# 3 Another Eddie (ML 15-1)

# 7 Anonymously (ML 8-1)

# 10 Greg's Diva (ML 3-1)

C's

# 5 September Secret (ML 6-1)

# 6 Miss Carousel (ML 6-1)

# 8 Awesome Drive (ML 15-1)

# 9 Nu Pi Lambda (ML 4-1)

# 11 Frose (ML 30-1)
# 12 Derby Quest (ML 30-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Fantasy Heat (ML 5-2) and # 14 Storming Lady (ML 10-1)

For the curious among us, with the scratch of the AEs, none of the runners leaving the gate in this field will be doing so with a price tag on their head.

She's So Nice (Ire) didn't show much in her North American debut at Del Mar last time out.  If She's So Nice can return to the form that she showed when competing in Great Britain, then She's So Nice could pull off the upset today.

Xmas Surprise ran well in the Spring over this turf course.  Isn't She Lovely could improve with the added real estate.  Another Eddie could improve with the return to the turf.

Anonymously took the Show at this class level last time out at Del Mar.  Note that I'm not using the Place finisher in that contest, Nu Pi Lambda, on my main ticket, as I feel that Nu Pi Lambda has had enough chances to grab the gold ring at this class level.

Greg's Diva projects to be prominent early; however, the fact that Greg's Diva has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite is each of her last three races has me cautious regarding her chances.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 1 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,5 with 1,4 with 1,4,6,9 with 1,2,3,4,7,10 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,7 with 4 with 1 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9 with 1 with 4 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2,3,7,8,10 with 4 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1 with 5,6,8,9,11,12 $3.00

Total: $84.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo