“We're all being tested....That's what life is.” - Brad Meltzer
And so we arrive at the third and final leg of horse racing's Triple Crown, The Test of Champions, the Belmont Stakes. As with any racing day, there are quite a few questions to be answered Saturday in Elmont, NY. For example, is Flightline really all that? Or is Flightline just another West Coast phenom that will fizzle out under the bright lights of New York? Were Rich Strike's connections right to bypass the Preakness Stakes in order to focus on today's contest? Can We the People conquer the Belmont Stakes in the same coast to coast manner that he did the Peter Pan? Hopefully I'll land upon the correct replies to these and all other questions to be found in this sequence, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - The Jaipur (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Widener Turf
A's
# 8 Scuttlebuzz (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 3 True Valour (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Casa Creed (ML 9-2)
# 5 Arrest Me Red (ML 5-2)
# 13 Gregorian Chant (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Change of Control (ML 15-1)
# 2 Omaha City (ML 20-1)
# 6 Greyes Creek (ML 30-1)
# 7 Whatmakessammyrun (ML 20-1)
# 9 Filo Di Arianna (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Smokin' Jay (ML 15-1)
# 11 Chasing Artie (ML 15-1)
# 12 Gear Jockey (ML 6-1)
Scuttlebuzz, a winner over this course last time out, has a proven affinity for today's distance. True Valour (Ire) showed no ill effects last time out from his journey to Dubai. Casa Creed won last year's running of this event, and I'm a sucker for defending champs.
Arrest Me Red, winner of the Grade 2 Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs last time out, appears to be in top form. Gregorian Chant (GB), who took the Show behind Arrest Me Red in the aforementioned Turf Sprint, could move up with the increase in distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Speaker's Corner (ML 8-5)
B's
# 4 Happy Saver (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Flightline (ML 3-5)
# 3 Aloha West (ML 6-1)
# 5 Informative (ML 50-1)
You know, if there's going to be one race Saturday that I'll be looking back on when all the running is done and shaking my head over, this one is the most likely candidate. Flightline has all the makings of being one of the best of all time. Flightline has won all three of his career starts by over ten lengths. That's each; not combined. And while Flightline is making his 2022 debut, Flightline's work tab shows that he is in form and ready to roll.
But I'm taking Speaker's Corner here. Speaker's Corner has the undeniable edge over Flightline when it comes to experience. Speaker's Corner is two-for-two at the mile distance; Flightline has yet to compete beyond seven furlongs. Speaker's Corner is two-for-two over the Belmont Park main track; Flightline has yet to run outside of California. So I'm giving Speaker's Corner the edge over Flightline.
But wait; there's more. In what I may look upon later as a serious waste of money, I'm doubling the cost of my main ticket by adding a second runner. Should Speaker's Corner and Flightline duel each other into submission before the wire, I believe that Happy Saver is talented enough to go past them both and collect the top prize.
So for better or worse, that's how I'm playing this leg. Speaker's Corner on top. Happy Saver making it two deep on the main ticket. Flightline joining the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections. And we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 8 Highland Chief (Ire) (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Gufo (ML 3-1)
# 3 Tokyo Gold (Fr) (ML 30-1)
# 5 In Love (Brz) (ML 15-1)
# 9 Santin (ML 7-2)
# 10 Channel Maker (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 L'Imperator (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Adhamo (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Tribhuvan (Fr) (ML 8-1)
On paper, this contest has the makings of a classic. In my opinion this is a Breeders' Cup quality event, with all entrants worthy of consideration. Were it within my budget, I would simply punch the "ALL" button, sit back, and enjoy this race.
Highland Chief (Ire) and Gufo filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Man o' War over this turf course last time out. Tokyo Gold (Fr) ran well over this course last year while taking the Place in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby.
In Love (Brz) has demonstrated the ability to win from anywhere in the field. If In Love can return to the same form that he showed in 2021 while running off three straight Wins, then In Love can definitely pull off the upset.
Santin has shown steady improvement in each of his 2022 starts. Channel Maker's victory last time out in the Grade 2 Elkhorn suggests that he might be having a resurgence. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Nest (ML 8-1)
B's
# 4 Rich Strike (ML 7-2)
# 6 Mo Donegal (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 We the People (ML 2-1)
# 2 Skippylongstocking (ML 20-1)
# 5 Creative Minister (ML 6-1)
# 7 Golden Glider (ML 20-1)
# 8 Barber Road (ML 10-1)
Trainer Todd Pletcher won this contest in 2007 with the filly Rags to Riches; and in my opinion Pletcher stands an excellent chance of winning this year's running with another filly, Nest. As a daughter of Curlin (who crossed the Finish Line just a head behind Rags to Riches in 2007) with 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy as her damsire, Nest is certainly well bred to handle the twelve furlong distance.
Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike may need to be closer to the pace than he was on the first Saturday in May; but Rich Strike's works suggest that he can be quick early if need be. If the Todd Pletcher trained Mo Donegal can repeat the effort that he gave while winning the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, than Mo Donegal could be the one wearing the carnations when this contest is over.
And, no, I'm not using We the People on my main ticket. I'm simply of the opinion that We the People's victory last time out in the Grade 3 Peter Pan was greatly enabled by the track being sealed, and that We the People's "effort" in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby is a more reliable indicator of We the People's overall ability. So it's three deep for me in this leg, with We the People joining the rest of the field as a backup "C" Selection.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,8,13 with 2,4 with 2,3,5,8,9,10 with 3,4,6 $90.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,6,7,9,10,11,12 with 2 with 8 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,3,5 with 8 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 1,4,6,7 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 1,2,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $101.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:53 EDT / 12:53 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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