8/27/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"Doubt kills more dreams than failure ever will." - Suzy Kassem

The Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes is Saturday's featured race in Southern California; a contest that comes with the pot sweetener of a free entry to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile to the winner.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Shes'a Perfectlady (Morning Line 5-1)

B’s

# 3 Iconic Sky (ML 6-1)

# 4 Lexington Humor (ML 5-1)

# 8 Woodbine Way (ML 9-2)

# 11 Baby Steps (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Tom's Beauty (ML 8-1)

# 5 Over Attracted (ML 20-1)

# 6 Get On the Bus (ML 8-1)

# 7 Del Mar Drama (ML 10-1)

# 10 Canam Gal (ML 20-1)

# 12 Fulminate (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Champagne Camie (No Line)

I'm not sure why, but the Past Performances that I have give this as an N2X (non-winners of two races lifetime other than etc., etc., etc); but, clearly, the claiming price and a full read of the conditions leave little doubt that this is an N1X contest.  Be that as it may, the only entrant in this field that is up for sale for the $40k claiming price is Fulminate.

Shes'a Perfectlady returns from a five month vacation, bringing with her a three race winning streak.  Anticipate Shes'a Perfectlady to be doing her best running late.

Iconic Sky moves up to open company from state bred only contests; but Iconic Sky has defeated open company in the past, and Open Sky has shown that she can win by either coming off the pace or by leading the field from gate to wire.

Lexington Humor took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit on the main track.  Woodbine Way and Baby Steps filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this turf course last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 80k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Apprehend (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Letsgetlucky (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Desmond Doss (ML 4-1)

# 2 Fashionably Fast (ML 5-1)

# 3 Kid Corleone (ML 5-2)

# 5 Tigre Di Slugo (ML 12-1)

# 7 Howbeit (ML 12-1)

For those who note such things, the only entrant in this field that will leave the gate with the $80k price tag on his head is Howbeit.  Apprehend took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

Letsgetlucky earned a Graded Stakes Placing in each of his last two starts.  So why isn't Letsgetlucky top choice here?  Good question.  My concern with Letsgetlucky is that all three of his career Wins have been against state bred only company.  Letsgetlucky has yet to defeat runners that were not Cal bred.  Now, that could just be a fluke, a result of where Letsgetlucky's connections have chosen to enter him, rather than an accurate representation of Letsgetlucky's abilities.  Still, I'll trust my gut here, using Letsgetlucky on the main ticket but not on the "All A Entries" ticket.  As to the rest of the field, I'll be using those as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 American Theorem (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 C Z Rocket (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Principe Carlo (ML 15-1)
# 3 Restrainedvengence (ML 30-1)
# 5 Get Her Number (ML 8-1)

# 6 The Chosen Vron (ML 12-1)

# 7 Laurel River (ML 5-1)

# 8 Speaker's Corner (ML 6-5)

# 9 Defunded (ML 8-1)

# 10 Senor Buscador (ML 30-1)

So Speaker's Corner was chased out of New York.  After having to settle for the Show in the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont Park behind Flightline, followed by having to take the Place against Life is Good in the Grade 2 John A Nerud at Saratoga, Speaker's Corner's connections decided to go west with their young colt, in the hopes that Speaker's Corner will be able to punch his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile against lesser competition in Southern California.

And perhaps Speaker's Corner will find his foes at Del Mar to be far from formidable, and cruise with ease into the winner's circle Saturday.  It certainly would come as a surprise to no one were that to come to pass.  But I've chosen to be contrarian in this leg, and to fade Speaker's Corner at what I expect will be ridiculously short odds.

American Theorem has proven himself capable of winning Graded Stakes at nice odds, and there's no reason to doubt that American Theorem can do it again Saturday.  C Z Rocket won this event back in 2020, and I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for prior victors attempting to emerge again as winners of a specific Graded Stakes.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field, which includes Speaker's Corner.

RACE 10 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Sword Zorro (Ire) (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 5 Cono (ML 7-2)

# 6 Ted (ML 6-1)

# 10 Cane Creek Road (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Cleopatra's Strike (ML 8-1)
# 2 Theshold (ML 15-1)
# 4 Border Town (ML 4-1)

# 7 Table for Ten (ML 15-1)

# 8 Prodigal Son (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Ottawa Fire (Ire) (ML 15-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have not won a race this year (2022, for those who may have forgotten).

Sword Zorro (Ire) last got his picture taken a little over a year ago, when he won the photo to claim victory in the Grade 3 La Jolla.  Normally dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time would qualify a Graded Stakes winner as a big ticket single; especially against conditioned, rather than open, claimers.

But since becoming a Graded Stakes winner, Sword Zorro has yet to make his way into the Trifecta, let alone visit the winner's circle.  Granted, this field is going to be considerably weaker than any that Sword Zorro has faced over the prior twelve months.  But rather than singling Sword Zorro, I've decided in the name of caution to spread a bit in this leg.

Cono acquitted himself well in his 2022 debut last time out, pressing the pace against more expensive stock until running out of gas in the stretch.  Ted and Can Creek Road can be expected to via for prominence through the early going.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 4 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,8,11 with 4,6 with 1,4 with 5,6,9,10 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,7,10,12 with 6 with 4 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 4 with 9 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 4 with 1,2,4,7,8 $2.50

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo