10/1/22 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“Every day is a new beginning.  Treat it that way.  Stay away from what might have been, and look at what can be.” - Marsha Petrie Sue

It's opening weekend in Arcadia, CA; and the good people in charge of thoroughbred horse racing in Southern California have put together an excellent card to mark the occasion.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - The Eddie D (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A's

# 4 Gregorian Chant (GB) (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 9 Tango Tango Tango (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Lane Way (ML 4-1)
# 2 Air Force Red (ML 5-1)

# 3 Gollad (ML 8-1)

# 5 Coulthard (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 6 Barristan The Bold (GB) (ML 30-1)

# 7 Whatmakessammyrun (ML 8-1)

# 8 Dubai Key (Arg) (ML 6-1)

Gregorian Chant (GB) has shown an affinity for the Santa Anita turf, and therefore could move up with the return to Arcadia.  Tango Tango Tango is trying hillside grass racing for the first time.  As Tango Tango Tango fits well here on class, if he takes to downhill turf racing then Tango Tango Tango could pull off the upset at a very nice price.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Royal Ship (Brz) (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Azul Coast (ML 20-1)
# 3 High Connection (ML 12-1)

# 4 Country Grammer (ML 8-5)
# 5 Tripoli (ML 8-1)

# 6 Defunded (ML 6-1)
# 7 Express Train (ML 7-2)

# 8 Slow Down Andy (ML 12-1)

This contest drew rather well, in my opinion, and, on paper at least, appears to be quite contentious.  Some may think that that would make this an odd race to be singling on my main ticket.  However, while there are several runners in this field who could capture the Win Saturday, I think that Royal Ship (Brz) is in the best position to improve over his prior effort, thanks to the cutback in the distance that he will need to cover.

In addition, Country Grammer will undoubtedly be overused in the pool, taking much more money than warranted when you consider how Country Grammer and Royal Ship have performed against each other throughout their respective careers.  Should this prove true, it would make Royal Ship an excellent value selection, as Royal Ship would be much less frequently used on bettors' tickets relative to his chances of winning.

So it's Royal Ship solo for me on the big ticket in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - (F) The Unzip Me $85k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 Connie Swingle (ML 3-1)

B's

# 9 Island of Love (Ire) (ML 8-5)

C's

# 1 Bandon'smylawyer (ML 8-1)

# 2 Delmona (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 4 Countess Rosina (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Pammy's Ready (ML 10-1)

# 7 Grace Adler (ML 5-1)

# 8 Terraray (GB) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Briefcase Girl (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 3 Lexington Humor (ML 12-1) and # 11 Gem Mine (No Line)

Connie Swingle has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in her eight race career.  Connie Swingle certainly looks strong enough here to warrant strong consideration for use as a single on my main ticket.

However, I found Island of Love (Ire) too intriguing to let go by.  Island of Love who, like Connie Swingle, is trained by Phil D'Amato, will be competing in a downhill turf contest for the first time in her career.  Should Island of Love prove competent competing on the hillside turf course, then Island of Love could be the one getting her picture taken once this contest is declared Official.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 13 Kanthara (ML 10-1)

B's

# 2 Mi Mmita (ML 4-1)
# 3 Poetica (ML 20-1)

# 4 Broadway Girls (ML 12-1)

# 5 Mizztify (ML 6-1)

# 7 The Dance Between (ML 6-1)

# 8 Pleasant Wave (ML 10-1)
# 9 Candy Caramel (ML 7-2)

# 10 Ragtime Rose (ML 15-1)
# 11 Cheekiest (ML12-1)

# 12 Good as Gone (ML 30-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 1 Dash Away (ML 8-1)

These are juvenile fillies, and God bless you if you were able to find a standout; because I sure couldn't.  Kanthara, drawing in off the Also Eligible list, is a John Shirreffs' trainee making her second career start and trying the turf for the first time.  Since Kanthara projects to be a very nice price, Kanthara gets the top spot here, with the rest of the field joining her on my main ticket as I go "ALL" in for this leg.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 5 with 13 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 2 with 5,9 with ALL $24.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 5 with 13 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8 with 5 with 13 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,10 with 13 $3.50

Total: $35.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo