10/8/22 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Personally I'm always ready to learn, although I do not always like being taught." - Winston Churchill

It was called the Norfolk Stakes for a good number of years, before being renamed the Frontrunner.  Today this Graded Stakes for juveniles is known as the American Pharoah, and it's Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as well as a trio of other races, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - OClm 50000 N2L - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 Detroit City (Morning Line 8-1)

B’s

# 7 Lucky Boss (ML 12-1)

# 9 Forgiving Spirit (ML 8-1)

# 12 Moraweth (ML 6-1)

# 13 My Summer Dream (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Uncle Jeff (ML 7-2)

# 2 Laughing Legacy (ML 12-1)

# 3 Multi Platinum (ML 6-1)

# 4 Missed Call (ML 8-1)

# 6 Ginsburned (ML 20-1)

# 8 D D S Express (ML 15-1)

# 10 Who's Candy (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Street Art (ML 6-1)

This contest is similar to the $50k Starter Allowances frequently seen in Southern California, open to runners that have started for a claiming price of $50k or less and which have never won two races.  However, this race also has an Optional Claiming component, in that runners who have never won twice and who have never started for a claiming price of $50k or less can be entered, but they are then subject to being claimed for $50k.  Of course, should the connections so choose, runners who meet the Starter Allowance condition can also be eligible to be claimed.  For the record, those in this field who will be leaving the gate with the $50k price tag on their head are Uncle Jeff, Ginsburned, Lucky Boss, Forgiving Spirit, Who's Candy, and Detroit City.

Detroit City, trying the Santa Anita course for the first time, could move up with the drop in class.  Lucky Boss could improve with the cutback in distance.  Forgiving Spirit won previously over this turf course at today's distance.

Moraweth took the Show while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out versus similar, albeit on the main track.  My Summer Dream should get an unimpeded stalking trip with the furthest outside Post Position, and My Summer Dream has run well in the past over this turf course.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - The American Pharoah (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Cave Rock (ML 4-5)

B's

# 1 Gandolfini (ML 12-1)

C's

# 2 Man Child (ML 30-1)

# 3 Macnamara (ML 50-1)
# 4 Odonata (ML 20-1)
# 6 National Treasure (ML 6-1)
# 7 Skinner (ML 5-1)
# 8 Hejazi (ML 5-2)

Cave Rock, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity by over five lengths last time out, almost certainly should be a single here.  But I decided to double the cost of my main ticket by adding Gandolfini to this leg of the sequence.  I like that Gandolfini (who, like Cave Rock, is trained by Bob Baffert) has already won going around two turns; and I like how Gandolfini has been working in preparation for this contest.  So I'll be using those two Baffert runners on my main ticket, with all other entrants being utilized as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - OC 80k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Rip City (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Kentucky Pharoah (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Turn On The Jets (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 4 Neptune's Storm (ML 8-1)

# 5 Sigiloso (ML 15-1)

# 6 Gypsy King (ML 6-1)
# 7 Vantastic (ML 10-1)

# 8 Zoffarelli (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Commander (Fr) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Chasin Munny (ML 6-1)

For those who note such things, Rip City, Neptune's Storm, and Commander (Fr) are the three runners in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $80k price tag on their head.

Rip City took the Show last time out at Del Mar at this class level.  Kentucky Pharoah has shown good early speed when competing in eight furlong contests on the flat turf; such tend to do well when competing on the downhill course.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - OC 50k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Fly the Sky (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 One Fast Bro (ML 20-1)

# 2 Bally's Charm (ML 12-1)

# 3 First Premio (ML 6-1)

# 5 Hawk of War (ML 7-2)

# 6 Red King (ML 5-1)

# 7 Bang for Your Buck (ML 5-1)

# 10 Midnight Jostar (ML 4-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Perfect Flight (ML 10-1) and # 9 Crosby Beach (ML 20-1)

For the curious among us, the runners in this field who are NOT eligible to be claimed for $50k are Bally's Charm, Bang for Your Buck, Fly the Sky, and Midnight Jostar.

I went back and forth multiple times regarding whether or not to punch the "ALL" button for this leg.  If Cave Rock should, as expected, win the American Pharoah, and Rip City follows with a victory in the next race, odds are good that the Late Pick Four payout won't be much.  But if Gandolfini prevails in the American Pharoah, and I catch a price in the opening leg, then I don't want to have to sweat the nightcap, because that would be a Late Pick Four very much worth having.

So, having spent a significant amount of the morning debating myself on the issue, I decided to just throw the money through the window and hope for the best.  So it's everyone into the pool for Saturday's nightcap.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 5 with 3 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,9,11,12,13 with 1,5 with 1,3 with ALL $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,6,8,10 with 5 with 3 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2,3,4,6,7,8 with 3 with 8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 5 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 8 $3.50

Total: $91.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:08 EDT / 4:08 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo