Race 6 - # 3 Echo Zulu (Final Odds 4.10) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Fast Magoo (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Eddie's First (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Neveradoubt (5.20) - "B" Selection
Needless to say, the card was much, much more formful today at Del Mar than it was yesterday. Each of the two races prior to the start of the Pick Four sequence was won by the Post Time Favorite, making for a lot of winning Pick Six tickets today. Over two and a half million dollars of new money was wagered on the Pick Six today, creating a pool of over $3.1 million. When all was said and done, that two dollar wager paid out $3,051.40 for all those who correctly picked all six winners.
As for the pool we were swimming in, over $680k was wagered on today's Pick Four. For posterity's sake, here are the $0.50 Will Pays to the two other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Lovely Summer (5.10) - $230.25
# 8 Dr. Suer (1.40*) - $78.70
But that's what might have been. The actual Pick Four sequence of 3 / 9 / 6 / 3 paid $131.15 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 16, 2014
11/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
As mentioned in the previous post, there's a triple carryover in Sunday's Pick Six at Del Mar; so just re-apply all the reasons I gave yesterday why a big carryover in the Pick Six is good for those of us swimming in the Pick Four pool, and increase them exponentially.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 Dynamo Dixie (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Zulu (ML 5-1)
# 4 Sir Barclay (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Rosie's Hurricane (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mosso (ML 6-1)
# 8 W. Giles (ML 12-1)
Dynamo Dixie took the Place at this level last time out. Dynamo Dixie is four-for-seven lifetime on the plastic at Golden Gate Fields; perhaps that form will hold up down state.
Echo Zulu has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career tries on synthetic. Sir Barclay took the Show against more expensive two starts back, albeit on real dirt.
Rosie's Hurricane has finished in the Exacta in all six of his career starts, all at Les Bois Park. Perhaps it's overly optimistic to expect that form to mean anything in Southern California; but this will be Rosie's Hurricane's first start for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, and runners tend to do very well when competing for the first time under his tutelage.
Mosso has just one career win, so he could be competing against some N2L foes rather than trying open company here. Perhaps his placement in this race is sign of confidence from his connections; after all, Mosso did take the Show against more expensive last time out, and he did break his maiden on this main track.
W. Giles in one-for-two lifetime over this main track. W. Giles looks like he's going to need the early lead to win. Odds are he won't get that early lead; but if he does, they're going to have a tough time trying to run him down in the stretch.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Wild At Best (ML 7-2)
# 4 Flyin for a Livin (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fast Magoo (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
None
Wild At Best comes off the bench after a nine month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately one fourth of such. Flyin for a Livin took the Show at this level two starts back. Fast Magoo has earned speed figures in the past that are good enough to get the job done today.
RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Smart Journey (ML 7-2)
# 6 Eddie's First (ML 3-1)
# 8 Lindante (ML 5-1)
B's
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Law Dog (ML 4-1)
# 3 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1)
Smart Journey was within two lengths of the winner charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out, his first try against winners. Smart Journey will have the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano today; it was Bejarano who was on his back the only prior time that Smart Journey got his picture taken after a race.
Eddie's First just missed by a nose of taking The E.B. Johnston Stakes on the dirt a couple of months back. Expect Eddie's First to be among those fighting for the early lead.
Lindante tries winners for the first time here, though he did break his maiden last time out against open, rather than state restricted, company. Lindante has shown the ability to rate, a trait that should prove quite useful in this field filled with a lot of early speed.
Johns Journey is another, like Lindante, that has the ability to come from just off the pace; so while Johns Journey's turf form is lacking, his ability to rate may put him in the Winner's Circle today.
Law Dog is the only runner here with multiple turf wins. Conversely, Crimson Giant is winless in twenty-nine ties on the grass. So why is Crimson Giant on our tickets? Because there's a lot of early speed here, and if the pace should completely blow up, Crimson Giant is the one entrant in this field that can be counted on to still be running at the end.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Dr. Suer (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Lovely Summer (ML 5-1)
# 3 Neveradoubt (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 1,3 $3.00
RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 Dynamo Dixie (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Zulu (ML 5-1)
# 4 Sir Barclay (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Rosie's Hurricane (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mosso (ML 6-1)
# 8 W. Giles (ML 12-1)
Dynamo Dixie took the Place at this level last time out. Dynamo Dixie is four-for-seven lifetime on the plastic at Golden Gate Fields; perhaps that form will hold up down state.
Echo Zulu has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career tries on synthetic. Sir Barclay took the Show against more expensive two starts back, albeit on real dirt.
Rosie's Hurricane has finished in the Exacta in all six of his career starts, all at Les Bois Park. Perhaps it's overly optimistic to expect that form to mean anything in Southern California; but this will be Rosie's Hurricane's first start for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, and runners tend to do very well when competing for the first time under his tutelage.
Mosso has just one career win, so he could be competing against some N2L foes rather than trying open company here. Perhaps his placement in this race is sign of confidence from his connections; after all, Mosso did take the Show against more expensive last time out, and he did break his maiden on this main track.
W. Giles in one-for-two lifetime over this main track. W. Giles looks like he's going to need the early lead to win. Odds are he won't get that early lead; but if he does, they're going to have a tough time trying to run him down in the stretch.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Wild At Best (ML 7-2)
# 4 Flyin for a Livin (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fast Magoo (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
None
Wild At Best comes off the bench after a nine month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately one fourth of such. Flyin for a Livin took the Show at this level two starts back. Fast Magoo has earned speed figures in the past that are good enough to get the job done today.
RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Smart Journey (ML 7-2)
# 6 Eddie's First (ML 3-1)
# 8 Lindante (ML 5-1)
B's
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Law Dog (ML 4-1)
# 3 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1)
Smart Journey was within two lengths of the winner charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out, his first try against winners. Smart Journey will have the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano today; it was Bejarano who was on his back the only prior time that Smart Journey got his picture taken after a race.
Eddie's First just missed by a nose of taking The E.B. Johnston Stakes on the dirt a couple of months back. Expect Eddie's First to be among those fighting for the early lead.
Lindante tries winners for the first time here, though he did break his maiden last time out against open, rather than state restricted, company. Lindante has shown the ability to rate, a trait that should prove quite useful in this field filled with a lot of early speed.
Johns Journey is another, like Lindante, that has the ability to come from just off the pace; so while Johns Journey's turf form is lacking, his ability to rate may put him in the Winner's Circle today.
Law Dog is the only runner here with multiple turf wins. Conversely, Crimson Giant is winless in twenty-nine ties on the grass. So why is Crimson Giant on our tickets? Because there's a lot of early speed here, and if the pace should completely blow up, Crimson Giant is the one entrant in this field that can be counted on to still be running at the end.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Dr. Suer (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Lovely Summer (ML 5-1)
# 3 Neveradoubt (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Dr. Suer missed by just a head of graduating in his debut last time out, albeit against Maiden Claimers. Dr. Suer will be adding blinkers today; Trainer Phil D'Amato wins at a 40% clip when his runners don the hood for the first time. Also note that Dr. Suer will have the services of Jockey Mike Smith this go round.
Lovely Summer and Neveradoubt are a pair of first time starters whose respective sires and connections win rather frequently with debut runners. While I think Dr. Suer should be a solid favorite in this contest, I think the use of backups is warranted due to the gap between the Beyer Speed Figure earned by Dr. Suer in his debut and the Beyer Speed Figure typically required to win at this class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $9.00
A's with One B
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $9.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 1,3 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,8 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 1,3 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 1,3 with 8 $3.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 15, 2014
11/15/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 American Sun (Final Odds 9.60) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Play Hard to Get (11.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 8 No Problem (17.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Regally Soul (7.30) - "B" Selection
In the opening leg our single "A" Selection, # 4 Megyns Gold (2.40*) battled with American Sun for the lead into the stretch; but it was the Favorite that faded, while the long shot kept going on to victory, turning all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Indeed, Race 6 was a good microcosm of the afternoon as a whole, as not a single Post Time Favorite crossed the wire first in any leg of the Pick Four sequence; nor, for that matter, in any of the Pick Six events. So if misery loves company there sure was plenty to go around, as nobody picked six today. As a matter of fact, nobody picked five either, as consolation payouts in the amount of $1,114.20 were awarded to those who successfully picked four out of six.
As regards the pool in which we were swimming, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 11 / 8 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $7,900.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 11 Play Hard to Get (11.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 8 No Problem (17.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Regally Soul (7.30) - "B" Selection
In the opening leg our single "A" Selection, # 4 Megyns Gold (2.40*) battled with American Sun for the lead into the stretch; but it was the Favorite that faded, while the long shot kept going on to victory, turning all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Indeed, Race 6 was a good microcosm of the afternoon as a whole, as not a single Post Time Favorite crossed the wire first in any leg of the Pick Four sequence; nor, for that matter, in any of the Pick Six events. So if misery loves company there sure was plenty to go around, as nobody picked six today. As a matter of fact, nobody picked five either, as consolation payouts in the amount of $1,114.20 were awarded to those who successfully picked four out of six.
As regards the pool in which we were swimming, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 11 / 8 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $7,900.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/15/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
There's a double carryover for Saturday's Pick Six at Del Mar, which tends to be good news for those playing the Pick Four. The big carryover attracts more players into the Pick Six pool, who in turn will often jump into the Pick Four pool, after either being knocked out of the Pick Six in either the first or second leg, or looking to cover combinations in the Pick Four that they left open on their Pick Six tickets. So the Pick Four pool should be especially healthy today; and, Good Lord willing, we'll have a piece of it when all is said and done.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Megyns Gold (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 8 Miss Centerfold (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Prettypreciousheir (ML 6-1)
# 11 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
EDIT: # 3 Longstocking (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Megyns Gold seems to have an affinity for the polytrack, as the best two races of her career were both over the Del Mar main track.
Miss Centerfold, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place in her debut last time out.
Prettypreciousheir is a first time starter by Wildcat Heir, whose descendants win approximately 16% of their debuts. She's a Big Winner suffered an awkward start in her debut last time out, and then suffered again as she was rushed to the front. She's a Big Winner deserves a chance to at least show what she can do.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Island Freedom (ML 8-1)
# 9 Presenceofagenius (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Play Hard to Get (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Husband's Folly (ML 9-2)
# 10 Macho Sox (ML 8-1)
The undefeated Island Freedom stretches out from his last race win sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita, so the increase in distance is not as great as it may first appear.
Presenceofagenius disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out back in April. He'll be going for the first time today with Jerry Hollendorfer as his trainer.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Megyns Gold (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 8 Miss Centerfold (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Prettypreciousheir (ML 6-1)
# 11 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
EDIT: # 3 Longstocking (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Megyns Gold seems to have an affinity for the polytrack, as the best two races of her career were both over the Del Mar main track.
Miss Centerfold, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place in her debut last time out.
Prettypreciousheir is a first time starter by Wildcat Heir, whose descendants win approximately 16% of their debuts. She's a Big Winner suffered an awkward start in her debut last time out, and then suffered again as she was rushed to the front. She's a Big Winner deserves a chance to at least show what she can do.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Island Freedom (ML 8-1)
# 9 Presenceofagenius (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Play Hard to Get (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Husband's Folly (ML 9-2)
# 10 Macho Sox (ML 8-1)
The undefeated Island Freedom stretches out from his last race win sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita, so the increase in distance is not as great as it may first appear.
Presenceofagenius disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out back in April. He'll be going for the first time today with Jerry Hollendorfer as his trainer.
Play Hard to Get broke his maiden two starts back over this turf course. Play Hard to Get does his best running late, so it's a question of whether or not there will be enough pace for him to close into.
Toledo Eddie is a much better horse on dirt; despite that, he has shown himself to be competitive at this class level on the turf in the past, and therefore must be respected.
Husband's Folly, like Presenceofagenius, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Husband's Folly certainly has the talent to defeat these; but he seems to always come up just short at this class level. Macho Sox took the Show at this class level last time out, and Doug O'Neil's assistant Leandro Mora does very well with runners going second off a layoff.
RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Alright Alright (ML 7-2)
# 7 All Indians (ML 6-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Story to Tell (ML 8-1)
# 3 Diamond Majesty (ML 9-2)
# 5 Every May (ML 15-1)
# 9 St. Joe Bay (ML 5-1)
# 4 Prime Engine (ML 3-1) has been scratched. Look for him a week from today in the Delta Downs Jackpot.
Alright Alright has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned in his debut last month at Santa Anita. Alright Alright also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. The question here is how he will handle the polytrack.
All Indians is the only entrant here with a victory over the Del Mar main track, and could be the speed of the speed in this juvenile affair.
Story to Tell looked awful in his lone prior start on the polytrack; but he also went on the shelf for two months immediately after that contest. So was it the surface or was it just that Story to Tell was not 100% for The Best Pal? If the problem that day wasn't the synthetics, then Story to Tell could upset here at a nice price.
Diamond Majesty, sired by Lookin At Lucky, ran well breaking his maiden last time out on the grass. Perhaps that turf form transfers well to the polytrack. Every May is the only runner here besides All Indians to have won on a sythetic surface.
St. Joe Bay had to drop to the Maiden Claiming ranks to get his first victory; but he won convincingly, by over ten lengths; and his sire (Saint Anddan) did capture the Show in his only try on a synthetic surface, in the 2007 running of the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes.
RACE 9 - Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Hadfunlastnight (ML 9-2)
B's
# 6 Ranulf (ML 12-1)
# 12 Regally Soul (ML 10-1)
C's
# 5 Endless Cruise (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fighting On (ML 5-1)
# 10 Passing Game (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Hadfunlastnight, four-for-eight lifetime over this main track, defeated more expensive stock two starts back. Passing Game goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 36% of such.
Ranulf won at this level two starts back, and defeated more expensive in the start before that. Ranulf is two-for-four lifetime when competing on a synthetic surface. Regally Soul took the Place the last time that he competed over this main track, just a half length behind Hadfunlastnight.
Endless Cruise has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed over the Del Mar main track. Fighting On goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with approximately 29% of such.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice that we're using "B's" again; so, yeah, there will be more tickets to punch. EDIT: The tickets below have been changed to reflect the scratch of # 3 Longstocking, a "B" Selection, from Race 6. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $6.00
A's with One B
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 11 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 6,12 $8.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 8 with 11 with 6,7 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 6,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11 with 6,7 with 6,12 $2.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,6,10 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 2,3,5,9 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 5,9 $4.00
Total: $40.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 9, 2014
11/9/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Sunday Stroll (Final Odds 3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Colonel Joan (9.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 2 More Complexity (3.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Synnin (3.00*) - "B" Selection
Our strategy was to spread wide. Unfortunately, we did not spread wide enough; because, despite using five runners in each of the two middle legs, we had no part of the winner in either contest.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,094.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Colonel Joan (9.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 2 More Complexity (3.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Synnin (3.00*) - "B" Selection
Our strategy was to spread wide. Unfortunately, we did not spread wide enough; because, despite using five runners in each of the two middle legs, we had no part of the winner in either contest.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,094.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/9/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
And we're back. Hopefully you all had a good time during the Breeders' Cup; perhaps some of you even turned a profit over the course of those two days (alas, I did not). But now it's time to turn to the present, and the present is offering something not seen in over forty-five years: Autumn racing at Del Mar. The meet has been off to a good start; so let's get in on the action and take a run at Sunday's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Rosa Divina (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Sunday Stroll (ML 10-1)
# 4 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Precious Caroline (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 6 Here Comes Bobbie (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bold Decision (ML 4-1)
We'll be using seven of the ten horses in this field one way or another, which reflects my opinion that this one is pretty wide open. It's a weak field, even for the class level (none of the entrants earned a Beyer Speed Figure within a dozen points of par in their last race) and the surface switch from dirt to plastic for many entered here just complicates matters further.
Rosa Divina disappointed in each of her last two races as the Post Time Favorite. Rosa Divina took the Place at this class level last time out, and took the Show in her last race over this main track, also at this class level.
Sunday Stroll earned her best career Beyer Speed Figure the only time prior to today that she raced with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back. Sunday Stroll will also be putting the blinkers back on today, which may help her get a jump on the rest of this field.
Southern Owah took a nice step forward last time out in her second career race, when she took the Place at this class level. However this will be her first race on the polytrack, and your guess is as good as mine as to how she'll handle it.
Precious Caroline drops in for a tag after running against non-Claiming Maidens in her prior two starts. Perhaps the class relief will do her well today; but perhaps not, as she was well beaten the one prior time that she ran for a tag, and her Beyers don't stand out against what the rest of the field has earned.
Here Comes Bobbie took the Show last time out, and was within three lengths of the winner in her only prior try on a synthetic surface; both of those races being run against this level of competition. Bold Decision ran for a tag for the first time in her career last time out and was able to take the Show; but it was a well-beaten third, as she was close to ten lengths back at the wire.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Sweet Profit (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charlie's Angel (Fr) (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Sweet Tess (ML 5-1)
# 7 Loan Savant (ML 6-1)
Chilada misses by just half a length of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Chilada's two Wins in that three race sequence both came with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back; Trujillo gets the mount again today.
Sweet Profit tries two turns for the first time, as well as making her first start on turf. Expect her to be quick early; indeed, she just might smoke the grass before the others can get started.
Charlie's Angel (Fr) broke her maiden overseas against Allowance company, and just missed by a neck of adding a second win at that level. She started slow but moved well late in her North American debut last time out; if she moves forward off that effort she could win today.
Sweet Tess has shown herself to be competitive at this level. Loan Savant moves up from the Claiming ranks, but she did take the Show the last time that she ran against OC/N1X company.
RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Tribal Gal (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Meinertzhageni (ML 6-1)
# 4 Warren's Veranda (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 5 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sweet Marini (ML 5-1)
Tribal Gal looks to be in top form, having taken the Place in Graded Stakes company last time out after winning her two races prior to that.
Meinertzhageni has finished in the Exacta in five of her six races on a synthetic surface, including all three of her races on the Del Mar main track. Warren's Veranda has also shown an affinity for the plastic, winning three of her five career races on a synthetic surface.
Swiss Lake Yodeler was a two time state bred stakes winner last Fall; perhaps she just likes this time of year. Sweet Marini is the top career earner in this field on synthetic surfaces, and should be forwardly placed early. If Tribal Gal doesn't start well, Sweet Marini may be the one leading the pack all the way around the track.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 City State (ML 6-1)
# 3 Synnin (ML 5-1)
# 7 The Custodian (ML 9-2)
# 8 Siberian's Rule (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 10 Easy Ten (ML 6-1)
# 11 Papa Z (ML 20-1)
Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level last time out. This will be Itsgettinghotinhere's second start off the layoff for Trainer Vann Belvoir, who wins with approximately 20% of such.
City State took the Show at this class level last time out; his first career in the money finish in nine tries. Perhaps City State is finally figuring it out.
Synnin took the Show at this level last time out, albeit on the polytrack. The Custodian had a rough trip last time out; perhaps he gets a smoother ride today. Siberian's Rule makes his second career start after getting off slow in his debut.
Easy Ten and Papa Z are a pair of first time starters in a field that lacks any true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. We had to resort to using "B's" as well as our usual "A's" and "C's", but I think it's justified based upon the competitive nature of these fields and the fact that we're dealing with a significant number of surfaces changes as we move from dirt to polytrack. As usual, we're going to play our tickets using the Crist method; so with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 4 $4.50
A's with One B
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 9 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 1,4 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Rosa Divina (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Sunday Stroll (ML 10-1)
# 4 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Precious Caroline (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 6 Here Comes Bobbie (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bold Decision (ML 4-1)
We'll be using seven of the ten horses in this field one way or another, which reflects my opinion that this one is pretty wide open. It's a weak field, even for the class level (none of the entrants earned a Beyer Speed Figure within a dozen points of par in their last race) and the surface switch from dirt to plastic for many entered here just complicates matters further.
Rosa Divina disappointed in each of her last two races as the Post Time Favorite. Rosa Divina took the Place at this class level last time out, and took the Show in her last race over this main track, also at this class level.
Sunday Stroll earned her best career Beyer Speed Figure the only time prior to today that she raced with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back. Sunday Stroll will also be putting the blinkers back on today, which may help her get a jump on the rest of this field.
Southern Owah took a nice step forward last time out in her second career race, when she took the Place at this class level. However this will be her first race on the polytrack, and your guess is as good as mine as to how she'll handle it.
Precious Caroline drops in for a tag after running against non-Claiming Maidens in her prior two starts. Perhaps the class relief will do her well today; but perhaps not, as she was well beaten the one prior time that she ran for a tag, and her Beyers don't stand out against what the rest of the field has earned.
Here Comes Bobbie took the Show last time out, and was within three lengths of the winner in her only prior try on a synthetic surface; both of those races being run against this level of competition. Bold Decision ran for a tag for the first time in her career last time out and was able to take the Show; but it was a well-beaten third, as she was close to ten lengths back at the wire.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Sweet Profit (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charlie's Angel (Fr) (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Sweet Tess (ML 5-1)
# 7 Loan Savant (ML 6-1)
Chilada misses by just half a length of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Chilada's two Wins in that three race sequence both came with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back; Trujillo gets the mount again today.
Sweet Profit tries two turns for the first time, as well as making her first start on turf. Expect her to be quick early; indeed, she just might smoke the grass before the others can get started.
Charlie's Angel (Fr) broke her maiden overseas against Allowance company, and just missed by a neck of adding a second win at that level. She started slow but moved well late in her North American debut last time out; if she moves forward off that effort she could win today.
Sweet Tess has shown herself to be competitive at this level. Loan Savant moves up from the Claiming ranks, but she did take the Show the last time that she ran against OC/N1X company.
RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Tribal Gal (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Meinertzhageni (ML 6-1)
# 4 Warren's Veranda (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 5 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sweet Marini (ML 5-1)
Tribal Gal looks to be in top form, having taken the Place in Graded Stakes company last time out after winning her two races prior to that.
Meinertzhageni has finished in the Exacta in five of her six races on a synthetic surface, including all three of her races on the Del Mar main track. Warren's Veranda has also shown an affinity for the plastic, winning three of her five career races on a synthetic surface.
Swiss Lake Yodeler was a two time state bred stakes winner last Fall; perhaps she just likes this time of year. Sweet Marini is the top career earner in this field on synthetic surfaces, and should be forwardly placed early. If Tribal Gal doesn't start well, Sweet Marini may be the one leading the pack all the way around the track.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 City State (ML 6-1)
# 3 Synnin (ML 5-1)
# 7 The Custodian (ML 9-2)
# 8 Siberian's Rule (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 10 Easy Ten (ML 6-1)
# 11 Papa Z (ML 20-1)
Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level last time out. This will be Itsgettinghotinhere's second start off the layoff for Trainer Vann Belvoir, who wins with approximately 20% of such.
City State took the Show at this class level last time out; his first career in the money finish in nine tries. Perhaps City State is finally figuring it out.
Synnin took the Show at this level last time out, albeit on the polytrack. The Custodian had a rough trip last time out; perhaps he gets a smoother ride today. Siberian's Rule makes his second career start after getting off slow in his debut.
Easy Ten and Papa Z are a pair of first time starters in a field that lacks any true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. We had to resort to using "B's" as well as our usual "A's" and "C's", but I think it's justified based upon the competitive nature of these fields and the fact that we're dealing with a significant number of surfaces changes as we move from dirt to polytrack. As usual, we're going to play our tickets using the Crist method; so with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 4 $4.50
A's with One B
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 9 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 1,4 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 9 with 6,8 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 1,4 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 1,4 with 4 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 1,4 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 5,7 with 9 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 5,6 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 10,11 $3.00
Total: $73.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:30 EST / 2:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)