Sunday, November 16, 2014

11/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

As mentioned in the previous post, there's a triple carryover in Sunday's Pick Six at Del Mar; so just re-apply all the reasons I gave yesterday why a big carryover in the Pick Six is good for those of us swimming in the Pick Four pool, and increase them exponentially.

RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 7 Dynamo Dixie (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Echo Zulu (ML 5-1)
# 4 Sir Barclay (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Rosie's Hurricane (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mosso (ML 6-1)
# 8 W. Giles (ML 12-1)

Dynamo Dixie took the Place at this level last time out.  Dynamo Dixie is four-for-seven lifetime on the plastic at Golden Gate Fields; perhaps that form will hold up down state.

Echo Zulu has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career tries on synthetic.  Sir Barclay took the Show against more expensive two starts back, albeit on real dirt.

Rosie's Hurricane has finished in the Exacta in all six of his career starts, all at Les Bois Park.  Perhaps it's overly optimistic to expect that form to mean anything in Southern California; but this will be Rosie's Hurricane's first start for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, and runners tend to do very well when competing for the first time under his tutelage.

Mosso has just one career win, so he could be competing against some N2L foes rather than trying open company here.  Perhaps his placement in this race is sign of confidence from his connections; after all, Mosso did take the Show against more expensive last time out, and he did break his maiden on this main track.

W. Giles in one-for-two lifetime over this main track.  W. Giles looks like he's going to need the early lead to win.  Odds are he won't get that early lead; but if he does, they're going to have a tough time trying to run him down in the stretch.

RACE 7 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Wild At Best (ML 7-2)
# 4 Flyin for a Livin (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fast Magoo (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C’s

None

Wild At Best comes off the bench after a nine month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately one fourth of such.  Flyin for a Livin took the Show at this level two starts back.  Fast Magoo has earned speed figures in the past that are good enough to get the job done today.

RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Smart Journey (ML 7-2)
# 6 Eddie's First (ML 3-1)
# 8 Lindante (ML 5-1)

B's

# 7 Johns Journey (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Law Dog (ML 4-1)
# 3 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1)

Smart Journey was within two lengths of the winner charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out, his first try against winners.  Smart Journey will have the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano today; it was Bejarano who was on his back the only prior time that Smart Journey got his picture taken after a race.

Eddie's First just missed by a nose of taking The E.B. Johnston Stakes on the dirt a couple of months back.  Expect Eddie's First to be among those fighting for the early lead.

Lindante tries winners for the first time here, though he did break his maiden last time out against open, rather than state restricted, company.  Lindante has shown the ability to rate, a trait that should prove quite useful in this field filled with a lot of early speed.

Johns Journey is another, like Lindante, that has the ability to come from just off the pace; so while Johns Journey's turf form is lacking, his ability to rate may put him in the Winner's Circle today.

Law Dog is the only runner here with multiple turf wins.  Conversely, Crimson Giant  is winless in twenty-nine ties on the grass.  So why is Crimson Giant on our tickets?  Because there's a lot of early speed here, and if the pace should completely blow up, Crimson Giant is the one entrant in this field that can be counted on to still be running at the end.

RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Dr. Suer (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Lovely Summer (ML 5-1)
# 3 Neveradoubt (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Dr. Suer missed by just a head of graduating in his debut last time out, albeit against Maiden Claimers.  Dr. Suer will be adding blinkers today; Trainer Phil D'Amato wins at a 40% clip when his runners don the hood for the first time.  Also note that Dr. Suer will have the services of Jockey Mike Smith this go round.

Lovely Summer and Neveradoubt are a pair of first time starters whose respective sires and connections win rather frequently with debut runners.  While I think Dr. Suer should be a solid favorite in this contest, I think the use of backups is warranted due to the gap between the Beyer Speed Figure earned by Dr. Suer in his debut and the Beyer Speed Figure typically required to win at this class level.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $9.00

A's with One B

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $9.00

A's with Two B's 

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 1,3 $3.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 1,5,8 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 1,3 with 8 $3.00

Total: $69.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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