RACE 6 - (F) The Jimmy Durante (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Rainha Da Bateria (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Belle Et Bete (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Rainha Da Bateria looks to be a clear standout in this event. She's the only runner in this field with a Graded Stakes victory, and one of just three with multiple lifetime Wins. Belle Et Bete (Ire) is the wildcard here, as she makes her North American debut. Belle Et Bete was heavily backed in her last two starts, and proved herself to be much the best in both of those events. Today we'll see if those results were due to her talents, or due to the lack of quality opposition in those two fields.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Spring Moon (ML 3-1)
# 5 Magic Lily (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shakeitupbetty (ML 20-1)
B's
# 8 Oscillator (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Only Josie Knows (ML 5-1)
# 4 Mum's Truckee (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sergeant O'Rourke (ML 12-1)
Spring Moon returns from a thirteen month vacation; Trainer Bob Baffert wins with approximately 30% of such. Magic Lily invades from the East after a layover in Arizona where she took the Show in a listed stakes. Note that Magic Lily won at this class level back in April.
Shakeitupbetty has finished in the Trifecta five of the six times that she's competed at today's distance. The last time Shakeitupbetty competed on the Del Mar main track she took the Show at this class level, earning a Beyer's Speed Figure that fits in well with the best that this field has to offer.
Oscillator enters this event with a two race winning streak; and while those victories have come against lesser competition, the Beyers that Oscillator earned in those contests fit at this class level.
Only Josie Knows has been in the Exacta in five of her seven lifetime races on this main track. Mum's Truckee has the talent to win at this class level, but her failure to do so in over half a dozen attempts suggests that she simply prefers not crossing the wire first; perhaps the addition of blinkers will change her attitude today.
Sergeant O'Rourke makes her first start since January; Trainer Peter Miller wins with approximately 19% of those coming back from an extended layoff. Sergeant O'Rourke has been working well for this contest; but her form suggests that she needs the lead to win, and it questionable as to whether or not she can get that early lead in this field.
RACE 8 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Lexie Lou (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-1)
# 5 California Chrome (ML 4-5)
B's
# 1 Talco (Fr) (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
There's not much to analyze here; if California Chrome takes to the turf, he wins. California Chrome is by far the class of this field, with lifetime earnings greater than the rest of the field combined. If California Chrome doesn't take to the turf, then this is a pretty wide open affair. So will California Chrome take to the turf today? Your guess is at least as good as mine.
Lexie Lou defeated the boys earlier this year in the Queens Plate on the plastic up in Toronto, and she was a pretty convincing winner last time out in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss. Sawyer's Hill could be long gone before the others even get started if California Chrome isn't able to keep him from getting loose on the lead. On the other hand, if things get overheated on the front end, Talco (Fr), who was running late in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last time out, could be the one swooping in right at the wire to get win today.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Longstocking (ML 9-2)
# 4 Dad's Princess (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rattataptap (ML 6-1)
B's
# 11 Popover (ML 7-2)
# 12 Ascent (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 1 Dea (ML 20-1)
# 8 Redheads Rule (ML 6-1)
# 13 Sweet Silver (ML 12-1)
# 9 Erte (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Dad's Princess finished fourth in the Del Mar Debutante back in August over this main track. If Dad's Princess repeats that effort today, she should win easily. Otherwise, this is anybody's race.
Longstocking and Rattataptap are a pair of first time starters who have been working well entering this contest and are by sires (Into Mischief and Tapit, respectively) whose progeny tend to do well in their debuts.
Popover is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert and sired by Lookin at Lucky. Those two traits would normally make a horse like Popover an automatic "A" Selction; but I didn't like the gap in the workouts between October 25 and November 5. I also didn't like that she needed to drill again from the gate back on the 13th.
Ascent is making her second career start for Trainer Tom Proctor, who wins with over 20% of such. Dea, Redheads Rule, and Sweet Silver are all first time starters whose bloodlines suggest that they should be ready to go at first asking.
OK, that's the analysis. We're spending more than I prefer on this play, which is primarily due to the uncertainty of how California Chrome will handle the turf in the Hollywood Derby. If I was confident that Ca. Chrome's form would transfer well from dirt to turf, I could make this play much less expensive by turning him into a single "A" in that event; but I can't do that in good conscious. So going with what we've got, and playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $27.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 1 with 2,4,10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 11,12 $9.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 1 with 2,4,10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 2,4,5 with 11,12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 1 with 11,12 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 1,8,13 $13.50
Total: $93.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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