RACE 5 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Aguafria (Morning Line 8-1)
# 13 Go West Marie (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Blingismything (ML 9-2)
# 5 Royal Temptress (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Colonel Joan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Burning Arch (ML 10-1)
Aguafria has finished within two lengths of the winner in each of her two North American turf races, both at this class level.
Go West Marie took the Show at this class level last time out, as well as five starts back. Sandwiched between those three races were three starts in state bred stakes, of which Go West Marie won one and finished third twice.
Blingismything won off the bench charging down the hill at Santa Anita last time out. Blingismything has finished in the money in all four of her career turf races.
Royal Temptress (Ire) moves up the class ladder after winning an OC N1X by a nose last time out at Santa Anita. The close margin of victory suggests that she may need a race or two at this level before moving on up; but as a lightly raced three year old, there is certainly strong upside potential.
Colonel Joan was well clear in her win last time out over this turf course against OC N1X company. Colonel Joan has also hit the board against stakes competition, so she should fit in well at this class level. Burning Arch is two for three lifetime over this turf course.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Alfa Bird (ML 9-5)
# 6 Nowalking (ML 3-1)
# 7 Raider Power (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 5 Arlington House (ML 8-1)
Alfa Bird has taken the Place in all three of his prior career starts at this class level, including his one prior career try on synthetics. Nowalking took the Show at this distance over this main track at this class level back in August. Raider Power's workouts and results seem to indicate that he much prefers synthetics to real dirt.
Arlington House makes his second career start for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 20% of such. Arlington House also had a fine work over this main track back on the 19th.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Holiday Star (ML 7-2)
# 3 Finnegans Wake (ML 9-2)
# 11 The Pizza Man (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Holiday Star, winner of the Grade 3 Sycamore last time out, misses by just a couple of head bobs of entering this contest with a three race winning streak. Holiday Star is also one of just two horses in this field with a Win at today's distance.
Finnegans Wake, who looked out classed against Grade 1 company, won the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap back in July, and missed by less than a length of taking the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup two starts back. Note that the jockey in the Arlington Handicap victory was Victor Espinoza, who today will be riding Finnegans Wake for the first since that Win.
The Pizza Man had a five race winning streak going for himself before traveling north of the border, where he failed to hit the board in two Grade 1 attempts at Woodbine. The Pizza Man is the only runner in this field besides Holiday Star with a Win at today's distance.
RACE 8 - Md $62.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sunbeamsfromheaven (ML 8-1)
# 10 Dream Police (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Rodeado (ML 20-1)
# 2 Pat the Bear (ML 8-1)
# 9 Jazzy Josh (ML 8-1)
Sunbeamsfromheaven drops down from Maiden Special Weights into Maiden Claimers; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately 27% of such.
Dream Police has earned speed figures (Beyer and Brisnet) in each of his last two races against non-claiming maidens that would definitely get the job done today. The problem is that both those races were on the grass; so it's unclear if Dream Police will do as well on the switch to the plastic.
Rodeado, Pat the Bear, and Jazzy Josh are all first time starters by sires whose progeny do reasonably well in their debuts, and all three have been working well. As there's no guarantee that Dream Police's turf form will hold on the synthetic, they all merit consideration.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing our tickets as usual via the Crist method, but without doubling our wager on the "All A Entries" Ticket. This will allow us to use more runners without going over budget, and I don't think they'll be so many short priced winners that the payout will be less than our investment should we get four Aces. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 11,13 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,11 with 5,10 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7,10 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,11 with 5,10 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 11,13 with 5 with 2,3,11 with 5,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 11,13 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,11 with 1,2,9 $27.00
Total: $87.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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