Saturday, November 15, 2014

11/15/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

There's a double carryover for Saturday's Pick Six at Del Mar, which tends to be good news for those playing the Pick Four.  The big carryover attracts more players into the Pick Six pool, who in turn will often jump into the Pick Four pool, after either being knocked out of the Pick Six in either the first or second leg, or looking to cover combinations in the Pick Four that they left open on their Pick Six tickets.  So the Pick Four pool should be especially healthy today; and, Good Lord willing, we'll have a piece of it when all is said and done.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Megyns Gold (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 8 Miss Centerfold (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 5 Prettypreciousheir (ML 6-1)
# 11 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)

EDIT: # 3 Longstocking (ML 6-1) has been scratched.

Megyns Gold seems to have an affinity for the polytrack, as the best two races of her career were both over the Del Mar main track.  

Miss Centerfold, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place in her debut last time out.

Prettypreciousheir is a first time starter by Wildcat Heir, whose descendants win approximately 16% of their debuts.  She's a Big Winner suffered an awkward start in her debut last time out, and then suffered again as she was rushed to the front.  She's a Big Winner deserves a chance to at least show what she can do.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Island Freedom (ML 8-1)
# 9 Presenceofagenius (ML 5-1)

B's

# 11 Play Hard to Get (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Husband's Folly (ML 9-2)
# 10 Macho Sox (ML 8-1)

The undefeated Island Freedom stretches out from his last race win sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita, so the increase in distance is not as great as it may first appear.

Presenceofagenius disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out back in April.  He'll be going for the first time today with Jerry Hollendorfer as his trainer.

Play Hard to Get broke his maiden two starts back over this turf course.  Play Hard to Get does his best running late, so it's a question of whether or not there will be enough pace for him to close into.

Toledo Eddie is a much better horse on dirt; despite that, he has shown himself to be competitive at this class level on the turf in the past, and therefore must be respected.

Husband's Folly, like Presenceofagenius, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.  Husband's Folly certainly has the talent to defeat these; but he seems to always come up just short at this class level.  Macho Sox took the Show at this class level last time out, and Doug O'Neil's assistant Leandro Mora does very well with runners going second off a layoff.

RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Alright Alright (ML 7-2)
# 7 All Indians (ML 6-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 2 Story to Tell (ML 8-1)
# 3 Diamond Majesty (ML 9-2)
# 5 Every May (ML 15-1)
# 9 St. Joe Bay (ML 5-1)

# 4 Prime Engine (ML 3-1) has been scratched.  Look for him a week from today in the Delta Downs Jackpot.

Alright Alright has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned in his debut last month at Santa Anita.  Alright Alright also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.  The question here is how he will handle the polytrack.

All Indians is the only entrant here with a victory over the Del Mar main track, and could be the speed of the speed in this juvenile affair.

Story to Tell looked awful in his lone prior start on the polytrack; but he also went on the shelf for two months immediately after that contest.  So was it the surface or was it just that Story to Tell was not 100% for The Best Pal?  If the problem that day wasn't the synthetics, then Story to Tell could upset here at a nice price.

Diamond Majesty, sired by Lookin At Lucky, ran well breaking his maiden last time out on the grass.  Perhaps that turf form transfers well to the polytrack.  Every May is the only runner here besides All Indians to have won on a sythetic surface.

St. Joe Bay had to drop to the Maiden Claiming ranks to get his first victory; but he won convincingly, by over ten lengths; and his sire (Saint Anddan) did capture the Show in his only try on a synthetic surface, in the 2007 running of the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes.

RACE 9 - Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Hadfunlastnight (ML 9-2)

B's

# 6 Ranulf (ML 12-1)
# 12 Regally Soul (ML 10-1)

C's

# 5 Endless Cruise (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fighting On (ML 5-1)

# 10 Passing Game (ML 7-2) has been scratched.

Hadfunlastnight, four-for-eight lifetime over this main track, defeated more expensive stock two starts back.  Passing Game goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 36% of such.

Ranulf won at this level two starts back, and defeated more expensive in the start before that.  Ranulf is two-for-four lifetime when competing on a synthetic surface.  Regally Soul took the Place the last time that he competed over this main track, just a half length behind Hadfunlastnight.

Endless Cruise has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed over the Del Mar main track.  Fighting On goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with approximately 29% of such.  

OK, that's the analysis.  You'll notice that we're using "B's" again; so, yeah, there will be more tickets to punch.  EDIT: The tickets below have been changed to reflect the scratch of # 3 Longstocking, a "B" Selection, from Race 6.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $6.00

A's with One B

$1.00 P4: 8 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 11 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 6,12 $8.00

A's with Two B's 

$0.50 P4: 8 with 11 with 6,7 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 6,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11 with 6,7 with 6,12 $2.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,6,10 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 2,3,5,9 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 5,9 $4.00

Total: $40.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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