12/10/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Los Alamitos Futurity - # 3 Mastery (Final Odds 0.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Adios Cali (2.00) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Starlet - # 6 Abel Tasman (12.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Yodelers Way (2.60) - "A" Selection

Based upon the way he ran in the stretch and comments made afterwards by Jockey Mike Smith, don't be surprised if the hood comes back off for Mastery's next contest; as Mastery seemed a little lost coming out of the second turn, causing him to slow down to look around and get his bearings.  But on the other hand it appears that any added distance should not be a problem for Mastery going forward, as Smith indicated that Mastery actually was going faster on the gallop out than he was coming to the wire.  Personally, I still prefer Beach Bum as my Derby horse; but there's no doubt that, as long as he stays healthy, Mastery is one that will be in the mix.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 Downside Up (2.00*) - $172.10 Finish: 6th
# 2 We Go Now (2.70) - $177.35 Finish: 3rd
# 3 Opus Dei (75.20) - $1,722.60 Finish: 8th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of  3 / 6 / 6 / 5  which paid $180.90 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $126.90 on our $54 investment, or approximate odds of 2.35-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/10/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

Today's the first of two Saturdays in the Los Alamitos Advent Meet, and it's a big one, featuring two Grade 1 stakes for juveniles.  We'll be taking a look at each of those contests below, comprising as they do half of the final four races on the card, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - The Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Mastery (Morning Line 1-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Dangerfield (ML 6-1)

Mastery, having demonstrated last time out that he can win handily without blinkers, will Saturday once again be wearing the blinkers, as he did when he won his debut handily two starts back.  Many have already decided that Mastery will be their Kentucky Derby horse, though it's unclear if they have done so in the hope that Trainer Bob Baffert will have figured out over the next five months whether or not Mastery runs best with or without the hood; or if they believe that the alternating blinkers on/blinkers off is the latest secret weapon in extracting peak performance from thoroughbred runners.

Somewhat more seriously, in addition to the blinkers situation, Mastery is trying two turns for the first time; so while his breeding suggests that he should handle the stretch out with no problem, it seems prudent to include at least one backup runner on our tickets.

RACE 7 - [S] (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Divine Spark (ML 8-5)

# 6 Adios Cali (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Crowded Way (ML 8-1)

# 4 Radish (ML 4-1)

C's

# 7 Proper Drink (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Jill Madden (ML 15-1)

Divine Spark appears to be the most talented runner in this field, but I'm not one hundred percent convinced that the cutback in distance will be enough to keep her from running out of gas before the wire.  Perhaps if Divine Spark had at least one workout beyond four furlongs in the past two months I might have more confidence in her ability to make it to the wire on time today; but lacking that, it seemed like a good idea to spread here.

Adios Cali and Crowded Way are a pair of first time starters that seem well meant here.  Radish has finished in the Trifecta in three of her four career starts at this class level.  Proper Drink showed good early speed in her debut last time out.

RACE 8 - (F) The Starlet (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 American Gal (ML 5-2)
# 9 Berned (ML 8-1)

B's

# 2 Union Strike (ML 7-2)

# 6 Abel Tasman (ML 8-1)

# 8 Fact of Life (ML 8-1)

C's

None

If the Bob Baffert trained triumvirate of Mastery, Divine Spark, and American Gal should sweep the Race 6 - 8 Pick Three, we're going to look mighty foolish for having gone so deep in the latter two races of that sequence.  But while American Gal should improve with a trip today that's within the same area code of the rail, I think that there are a few here that can keep this from being a cake walk.

Berned ships in from New York after having taken the Place behind next out winner Miss Sky Warrior in the Grade 3 Tempted.  Union Strike won the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante two starts back.

Abel Tasman graduated going around two turns two starts back, and then came back to beat winners last time out, with Post Time Favorite Fact of Life a half length behind at the wire.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Downside Up (ML 3-1)
# 5 Yodelers Way (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 We Go Now (ML 5-2)
# 3 Opus Dei (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Downside Up has been within a length of the winner at the wire in each of his last two starts, both at this approximate class level.  Yodelers Way took the Place at this class level two starts back, and looks to be the quickest in this field.

We Go Now lost all chance at the start as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  Opus Dei may wake up with the class drop.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2,6 with 7,9 with 1,5 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,6,7,8,9 with 1,2,3,5 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,6 with 7,9 with 1,5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 7,9 with 1,5 $2.00

Total: $54.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:58 EDT / 2:58 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/4/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Buzzer Beater (Final Odds 2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 12 Miss Temple City (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 St. Joe Bay (3.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 13 Soglio (4.90) - "A" Selection

We used the east coast shippers to our advantage today, as the Jockey/Trainer combo of Edgar Prado and Graham Motion win The Matriarch with Miss Temple City, and then come back to take the nightcap with Soglio, allowing us to close The Bing Crosby Meet on a high note.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which we were alive in the finale:

# 1 Kona Dreams (1.30*) - $91.35 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of  3 / 12 / 1 / 13  which paid $186.60 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $127.60 on our $59 investment, or approximate odds of 2.16-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/4/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Sunday is the final day of Del Mar's Bing Crosby Meet, with the Grade 1 Matriarch serving as the card's featured race.  We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as for the final time in 2016 we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Tuscany Beauty (Morning Line 9-5)

B’s

# 3 Buzzer Beater (ML 7-2)
# 5 Rockantharos (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Pragmatical (ML 3-1)
# 7 Cecile's Diamond (ML 6-1)

Tuscany Beauty shifts in from the state bred ranks to drop in for a tag for the first time in her career.  In addition, Tuscany Beauty appears to be the quickest in the field, as well as being one of the few competing here who has demonstrated the ability to win coming off the pace.  So why isn't Tuscany Beauty a single on our tickets?  It's because Tuscany Beauty will be ridden by T J Pereira, who is winless going into the final day of this meet, having managed only two Place finishes in his forty-six mounts.  In my opinion, when you have a jockey in a such an obvious slump, regardless of the reason, some caution is advised.  For that reason, I thought it advisable to spread in this leg.

Buzzer Beater seems to settle for too many minor awards; but she also appears to be the most likely candidate to be running best late in a field filled with need to lead types.  Rockantharos has shown the ability to win off a freshening, and is competing for the lowest tag in her career.

Pragmatical could be speed on the rail; though it's fair to question her stamina, even in a sprint such as this.  Cecile's Diamond faces winners for the first time after graduating last time out; Trainer Kristin Mulhall tends to do when when placing her last out victors.

RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 Time and Motion (ML 5-1)
# 12 Miss Temple City (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Zindaya (ML 9-2)
# 7 Roca Rojo (Ire) (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 9 Decked Out (ML 20-1)

Time and Motion, trained by Jimmy Toner, misses by half a length of entering this contest with a six race winning streak.Miss Temple City, trained by Graham Motion, defeated the boys in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland two starts back.  Zindaya, winner of the Grade 1 Goldikova last time out, and Roca Rojo (Ire), winner of the Grade 3 Athenia in her last contest, are both trained by Chad Brown.

RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Jazzy Times (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 St. Joe Bay (ML 4-1)
# 2 Who's Out (ML 3-1)
# 6 The Gomper (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Jazzy Times, trained by Bob Baffert, gets some class relief after taking the Place against stakes competition last time out.  St. Joe Bay and Who's Out each took the Place in separate competitions at this class level last time out.  The Gomper missed victory by a nose at this class level the last time that he competed on a Fast dirt track.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Kona Dreams (ML 5-2)
# 13 Soglio (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Glacier (ML 4-1)
# 4 Popular Kid (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bobby G (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 5 Marchtothemusic (ML 5-1).  Bring in # 13 Soglio (ML 7-2) off The Also Eligible List.

Kona Dreams has finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts, both at this class level.  Soglio, trained by Graham Motion, missed graduation by just a neck at this class level at Belmont Park two starts back.

Glacier goes first time for Trainer Bob Baffert, as well as trying the turf for the first time.  Popular Kid took the Show at this class level two starts back.  Bobby G competes on the lawn for the first time, and just might be the quickest in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 11,12 with 5 with 1,13 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5 with 4,7,11,12 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,13 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 11,12 with 5 with 1,13 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11,12 with 5 with 3,4,9 $3.00

Total: $59.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/3/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The Bayakoa - # 5 Vale Dori (Arg) (Final Odds (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 11 Annals of Time (5.90) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 12 American Anthem (1.80*) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Fabozzi (13.10) - "A" Selection

Our single in Race 8, # 4 Sheer Flattery (2.80), just didn't have it today, as he broke slowly and was never involved in the running, eventually finishing a well beaten fifth; and if your single doesn't fire, well, it doesn't much matter what happens in the other legs of the sequence.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 11 / 12 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $289.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/3/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

It's the final Saturday of Del Mar's Bing Crosby Meet, and in celebration of that fact there are a pair of Graded Stakes on the program; and they've both managed to made it into the final four races on the card.  So we'll be looking at each of them below, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Bayakoa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Gloryzapper (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Show Stealer (ML 6-1)

Gloryzapper hit the line a neck in front of Vale Dori (Arg) when these two competed over this main track back in August in Vale Dori's North American debut.  I expect today's rematch to be similar to that contest, with these two battling on the front end from gate to wire without much separating them at any point of call.  However, should Gloryzapper and Vale Dori duel each other into the ground, Show Stealer looks to be the one most likely to be running best late.

RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Free Rose (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 Beach Patrol (ML 9-2)

# 2 Camelot Kitten (ML 7-2)

# 3 Frank Conversation (ML 8-1)

# 7 Blackjackcat (ML 8-1)

# 8 Hayabusa One (Fr) (ML 6-1)

# 11 Annals of Time (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Needless to say, I consider this contest to be pretty wide open.  Camelot Kitten, Beach Patrol, and Annals of Time, all trained by Chad Brown, comprised the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Belmont last time out, with all three being separated by just a length at the wire.  Meanwhile, on the west coast, Frank Conversation, Free Rose, and Blackjackcat comprised the Trifecta in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby at Santa Anita last time out, with those three being separated by just a half length at the wire.  In addition to those six we're also going to toss Hayabusa One (Fr) into the mix, because his trainer, Graham Motion, has been doing quite well of late with the runners that he's been shipping into Southern California.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Sheer Flattery (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Surfside Sunset (ML 6-1)

# 3 Little Juanito (ML 6-1)

# 11 Iliad (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 8 Caustic (ML 15-1).  Bring in # 13 Joey Pots and Pans (ML 10-1) off The Also Eligible List to take his place.

There are several juvenile first time starters in this field that are definitely intriguing, and I would not be surprised to see at least a few of them go on to have very fine careers.  But ultimately I decided to single the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Sheer Flattery off his Place finish behind Mastery last time out, because I think Sheer Flattery's experience will be the difference maker here.

Little Juanito took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, while Surfside Sunset and the Bob Baffert trained Iliad appear to be the best of the first time starters.

RACE 9 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Tribal Fighter (ML 5-2)

# 9 Fabozzi (ML 8-1)

# 11 Chris and Dave (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 4 American League (ML 6-1)

# 6 Little Scotty (ML 5-1)

# 10 Top of the Game (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Dynamic Scoring (ML 12-1)
# 5 Champagne Charley (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Beaumarchais (ML 15-1)

Scratch The Also Eligibles: # 13 Aztec Warrior (ML 15-1) and # 14 Nine Point Nine (ML 10-1)

Note that this contest is for three year olds only.  Tribal Fighter took the Place charging down the Santa Anita Hill in each of his last two starts, both at the OC/N1X level, but with fields that included older runners.  Fabozzi took the Show against older competing on the flat Santa Anita turf last time out.  Chris and Dave took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, with Top of the Game taking the Show behind him.

American League defeated older $50k claimers over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.  Little Scotty is getting significant class relief here.

Dynamic Scoring looked much improved while taking the Show against older last time out, which was Dynamic Scoring's second career start on the grass.  Champagne Charley (Fr) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this approximate class level last time out.  Beaumarchais took the Place behind American League two starts back, and should be forwardly placed early.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,5 with 5 with 4 with 3,9,11 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,2,3,5,7,8,11 with 4 with 3,4,6,9,10,11 $42.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 4 with 3,9,11 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 5 with 2,3,11 with 3,9,11 $9.00

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 5 with 4 with 1,5,7 $3.00

Total: $61.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo