12/3/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

It's the final Saturday of Del Mar's Bing Crosby Meet, and in celebration of that fact there are a pair of Graded Stakes on the program; and they've both managed to made it into the final four races on the card.  So we'll be looking at each of them below, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Bayakoa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Gloryzapper (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Show Stealer (ML 6-1)

Gloryzapper hit the line a neck in front of Vale Dori (Arg) when these two competed over this main track back in August in Vale Dori's North American debut.  I expect today's rematch to be similar to that contest, with these two battling on the front end from gate to wire without much separating them at any point of call.  However, should Gloryzapper and Vale Dori duel each other into the ground, Show Stealer looks to be the one most likely to be running best late.

RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Free Rose (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 Beach Patrol (ML 9-2)

# 2 Camelot Kitten (ML 7-2)

# 3 Frank Conversation (ML 8-1)

# 7 Blackjackcat (ML 8-1)

# 8 Hayabusa One (Fr) (ML 6-1)

# 11 Annals of Time (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Needless to say, I consider this contest to be pretty wide open.  Camelot Kitten, Beach Patrol, and Annals of Time, all trained by Chad Brown, comprised the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Belmont last time out, with all three being separated by just a length at the wire.  Meanwhile, on the west coast, Frank Conversation, Free Rose, and Blackjackcat comprised the Trifecta in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby at Santa Anita last time out, with those three being separated by just a half length at the wire.  In addition to those six we're also going to toss Hayabusa One (Fr) into the mix, because his trainer, Graham Motion, has been doing quite well of late with the runners that he's been shipping into Southern California.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Sheer Flattery (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Surfside Sunset (ML 6-1)

# 3 Little Juanito (ML 6-1)

# 11 Iliad (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 8 Caustic (ML 15-1).  Bring in # 13 Joey Pots and Pans (ML 10-1) off The Also Eligible List to take his place.

There are several juvenile first time starters in this field that are definitely intriguing, and I would not be surprised to see at least a few of them go on to have very fine careers.  But ultimately I decided to single the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Sheer Flattery off his Place finish behind Mastery last time out, because I think Sheer Flattery's experience will be the difference maker here.

Little Juanito took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, while Surfside Sunset and the Bob Baffert trained Iliad appear to be the best of the first time starters.

RACE 9 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Tribal Fighter (ML 5-2)

# 9 Fabozzi (ML 8-1)

# 11 Chris and Dave (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 4 American League (ML 6-1)

# 6 Little Scotty (ML 5-1)

# 10 Top of the Game (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Dynamic Scoring (ML 12-1)
# 5 Champagne Charley (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Beaumarchais (ML 15-1)

Scratch The Also Eligibles: # 13 Aztec Warrior (ML 15-1) and # 14 Nine Point Nine (ML 10-1)

Note that this contest is for three year olds only.  Tribal Fighter took the Place charging down the Santa Anita Hill in each of his last two starts, both at the OC/N1X level, but with fields that included older runners.  Fabozzi took the Show against older competing on the flat Santa Anita turf last time out.  Chris and Dave took the Place at this approximate class level last time out, with Top of the Game taking the Show behind him.

American League defeated older $50k claimers over this turf course at today's distance two starts back.  Little Scotty is getting significant class relief here.

Dynamic Scoring looked much improved while taking the Show against older last time out, which was Dynamic Scoring's second career start on the grass.  Champagne Charley (Fr) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this approximate class level last time out.  Beaumarchais took the Place behind American League two starts back, and should be forwardly placed early.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,5 with 5 with 4 with 3,9,11 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,2,3,5,7,8,11 with 4 with 3,4,6,9,10,11 $42.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 5 with 4 with 3,9,11 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 5 with 2,3,11 with 3,9,11 $9.00

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 5 with 4 with 1,5,7 $3.00

Total: $61.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo