Friday, December 23, 2016

12/23/16 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

Season's Greetings, one and all!  With tomorrow being Christmas Eve, as well as the start of Hanukkah, it seemed like this evening was a good time to have some pre-holiday handicapping fun, and Turfway Park being as good a venue as any to have it.  Besides, you didn't think that I'd go the whole week that California thoroughbred racing was dark without any plays, did you?  So let's get to it, as we turn our attention to Florence, Kentucky, and take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Pure Legacy (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Star Killer (ML 12-1)
# 5 Prom Theme (ML 5-2)
# 8 Baja Bessie (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Sweets N Treats (ML 6-1)
# 6 Do I Dare (ML 10-1)

The conditions limit this contest to fillies and mares three years old and upward which have not won two races since July 18, 2016.  Note that Star Killer gets in just under the wire for that condition, as Star Killer's two most recent victories have come on August 20 and July 17 of this year; and that's a good enough angle to give Star Killer a spot on our big ticket, even though she doesn't appear to be in top form.

Pure Legacy missed victory by less than a length at this class level last time out over this track; with Prom Theme, the Post Time Favorite in that contest, following less than a length behind her.  Baja Bessie defeated open (non-conditioned) $5k Claimers at Belterra Park two starts back.

Sweets N Treats gets some much needed class relief here.  Do I Dare should be forwardly placed early.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 The Hans Sum One (ML 3-1)
# 8 Not E Z Beinggreen (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Wazzup Chuck (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Carmelo (ML 8-1)
# 3 Hay Net (ML 8-1)
# 10 Doggie Dawg (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 5 Run the Alley (ML 4-1)

Note that Race 7 and Race 9 are two divisions of the same contest, both being for juvenile non-claiming maidens at the identical six and a half furlong distance.

The Hans Sum One, Not E Z Beinggreen, and Wazzup Chuck are all first time starters whose breeding suggests that they should be ready to roll at first asking.  Carmelo and Doggie Dawg are another pair of debut starters who could run well here, but will probably benefit from having a race under their belt.  Hay Net flashed some good early foot against $30k Claimers at Churchill Downs last time out before fading, and will have a half furlong less real estate to cover tonight.

RACE 8 - Clm $15k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Rakeitin (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Buck Benny (ML 8-1)
# 5 Shutter Speed (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Quality Street (ML 10-1)
# 7 Back Togetheragain (ML 8-1)
# 8 Rabanito (ML 6-1)


Scratch # 6 Stan's Old Habits (ML 5-1)

Rakeitin moves up in class after winning at the N2L level over this track last time out.  Rakeitin has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career starts over this track.  Buck Benny returns to flat racing, having taken the Show the last time that he competed at tonight's distance (albeit on the grass).

Shutter Speed is making a significant class drop.  Quality Street took the Show at this class level last time out.  Back Togetheragain and Rabanito dueled early with each other in the early going last time out at this class level; perhaps one will get the advantage of the other tonight early enough to still have enough in the tank for the final drive.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Durango Dan (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 My Foolish Beau (ML 15-1)
# 4 Sight Line (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Big Gambler (ML 15-1)

C's

# 5 Cowboy Quinn (ML 5-1)
# 11 Capture the Glory (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Masonio (ML 5-2), # 8 Whiskey Moon (ML 6-1), and # 10 West End Gambler (ML 8-1)

Note that Race 7 and Race 9 are two divisions of the same contest, both being for juvenile non-claiming maidens at the identical six and a half furlong distance.

Durango Dan took the Place at this class level over this track last time out.  My Foolish Beau, Sight Line, and The Big Gambler are all first time starters whose breeding suggests that they should be ready to roll at first asking.  Cowboy Quinn took the Show behind Durango Dan last time out.  Capture the Glory flashed good early speed in his debut last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 1,8 with 9 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,7,8 with 1,4,8 with 1,5,9 with 1,4,6,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 1,8 with 9 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3,10 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,8 with 3,7,8 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,8 with 9 with 5,11 $2.00

Total: $82.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 8:40 EST / 5:40 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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