So we come to the end of the line for 2016, and to send it on its way the good people at Santa Anita Park have give us a card with three Graded Stakes; one of which, The American Oaks, has found itself among the final four contests on the program. So we'll be looking at that event below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Irap (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 12 Sheer Flattery (ML 4-1)
C's
# 5 Leading Score (ML 12-1)
# 6 Blame Joe (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Surfside Sunset (ML 5-1), # 3 Sonneteer (ML 8-1), # 9 Union Rebel (ML 15-1), # 13 Lucky Bode (ML 30-1), and # 14 Haskin (ML 15-1)
Irap took the Place in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Mastery last time out. Sheer Flattery took the Place behind Mastery at this class level over this main track two starts back.
Surfside Sunset showed late interest in his debut last time out. Sonneteer has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three contests. Leading Score showed some early foot in his debut last time out. Blame Joe has taken the Show at this class level in two of his three career starts.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Indavidualist (ML 3-1)
# 9 Blue Anchor (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 7 Paynes Prairie (ML 12-1)
# 10 Alley Boss (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Guy Code (ML 20-1)
# 5 My Prince Harry (ML 12-1)
Indavidualist took the Show at this approximate class level sprinting on the turf last time out, after having graduated on the main track in his debut. Blue Anchor took the Place at this approximate class level in two of his last three starts. Paynes Prairie took the Show at this approximate class level last time out. Alley Boss moves up the class ladder after a pair of convincing victories against lesser company.
Guy Code drops a step on the class ladder, and could be speed on the rail. My Prince Harry tries winners for the first time after graduating by daylight last time out.
RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sassy Little Lila (ML 9-2)
B's
# 2 Stays in Vegas (ML 7-2)
# 5 Cheekaboo (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 7 Decked Out (ML 4-1)
# 8 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 10 Sheeza Milky Way (ML 10-1)
# 13 Mokat (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 9 Mrs. Norris (ML 30-1)
EDIT - THE DISTANCE HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM TEN FURLONGS TO NINE FURLONGS
Despite the change in distance, I've made no adjustments to either my selections or my analysis. I'll stand by my original picks. - Jimbo
Sassy Little Lila ships in from New York after having taken the Place in The Winter Memories at Aqueduct last time out. Stays in Vegas will try to get her early speed to last all ten furlongs.
Cheekaboo, winner of the Grade 2 Honeymoon over this turf course back in June, looks like she'll do well covering the added real estate. Lady Valeur (Ire) defeated older in a listed stakes upstate last time out. Decked Out and Mokat are a pair of Graded Stakes winners that are questionable at today's distance.
Queen Blossom (Ire) is making her first North American start; note that Trainer Graham Motion tends to do well with such. Also note that Queen Blossom's career victories both came off works only. Sheeza Milky Way could be the one running best late.
RACE 9 - [S] (F) Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 12 Lucky Dolly (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Very Hot (ML 4-1)
# 6 Gypsy Ju Ju (ML 7-2)
# 11 Fair Escape (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Crowded Way (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 All of a Sudden (ML 8-1)
Lucky Dolly missed graduation by just a neck two starts back, the only prior time that she ran with a price tag on her head. Very Hot and Fair Escape are both dropping in for a tag for the first time in their respective careers; and both Very Hot and Fair Escape are trained by conditioners (Phil D'Amato and Gary Sherlock, respectively) who tend to do well with that move.
Gypsy Ju Ju just missed the Show at this class level in her debut last time out. Crowded Way could move up with a better beginning than what she encountered last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 3,9 with 6 with 12 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 10,12 with 3,7,9,10 with 2,5,6 with 4,6,11,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 3,9 with 6 with 12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6 with 12 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3,9 with 1,7,8,10,13 with 12 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3,9 with 6 with 3 $1.00
Total: $59.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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