Sunday, December 18, 2016

12/18/16 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the final day of the Blink And You Miss It Meet at Los Alamitos, with The King Glorious Stakes for juvenile California breds serving as Sunday's featured event.  We'll be looking at that contest below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.

RACE 6 - Alw 12500s - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Nextdoorneighbor (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 1 Ultimate Luck (ML 5-2)
# 5 Accelerant (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Eleven Zip (ML 12-1)
# 3 Jackson Sundown (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that there is no lifetime Win restriction for entrants in this contest, as is frequently the case in SoCal Starter Allowances.  Rather, this one is for runners that have started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less either this year or last, and have not won a Claiming, Starter, or Optional Claiming race in excess of $12.5k since.

Nextdoorneighbor is back in Trainer Peter Miller's barn, being re-claimed after having been claimed away from Miller two starts ago.  Nextdoorneighbor has won six of his last seven starts with Peter Miller as his conditioner.

Ultimate Luck missed victory by just a neck at this class level two starts back over this track.  Accelerant could improve with the return to two turn racing.  Eleven Zip is trained by Blaine Wright, who often enjoys success when moving his runners off the grass.  Jackson Sundown has finished in the Trifecta five of the six times that he has competed over this track.

RACE 7 - [S] The King Glorious $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 California Diamond (1-1)

B's

None

C's

None

Scratch # 2 Mr Ability

California Diamond has yet to finish out of the Exacta in eight career races, all but his debut against stakes competition.  California Diamond is Graded Stakes placed, having played second fiddle behind Mastery in the Grade 3 Bob Hope.  In my opinion California Diamond is a deserving single; so if he loses, this play loses.

RACE 8 - (F) Alw 25000s - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Merilore (ML 9-2)
# 4 Lob City (ML 5-1)
# 10 Margie's Minute (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Backintheacademy (ML 8-1)

C's

# 7 Melanistic (ML 12-1)

Like Race 6 above, there is no lifetime Win restriction for entrants in this contest, as is frequently the case in SoCal Starter Allowances.  Rather, this one is for fillies and mares that have started for a claiming price of $25k or less either this year or last, and have not won a Claiming, Starter, or Optional Claiming race in excess of $25k since.

Merilore missed victory by less than a length against $25k Claimers at Churchill Downs the last time that she competed on dirt.  Lob City has shown a steadily improving form since joining the barn of Trainer Gary Sherlock.  Margie's Minute was victorious last time out over Lob City and next out winner Midnight Candy.

Backintheacademy certainly fits well here on class despite a penchant for settling for too many minor awards.  Melanistic could contend if she can return to the form that she showed earlier this year.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Caustic (ML 5-2)
# 9 Stone Hands (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Momma's Baby Boy (ML 20-1)
# 2 The Party Factor (ML 10-1)
# 4 Menace the Dennis (ML 5-1)
# 5 Iliad (ML 5-1)
# 12 Kimbear (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 10 First Degree Burn (No Line)

Caustic is a first time starter for Trainer Phil D'Amato that has been working well over this main track.  Stone Hands has finished in the Trifecta in each of his two career starts.  Momma's Baby Boy, a first time starter for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, is out of a dam that has seen eight of her prior foals get their picture taken.

The Party Factor has shown good early speed in each of his two career starts.  Menace the Dennis flashed some early speed in his debut last time out, and has been working well over this main track.

Iliad showed good early speed for Trainer Bob Baffert in his debut last time out.  Kimbear's bullet work over the Santa Anita main track last Sunday suggests that he should do well with the surface switch.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 1,4,10 with 8,9 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,7 with 4 with 1,3,4,10 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,12 $42.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 4 with 1,4,10 with 8,9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 7 with 8,9 $1.00

Total: $55.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:58 EST / 2:58 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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