Sunday, December 4, 2016

12/4/16 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Sunday is the final day of Del Mar's Bing Crosby Meet, with the Grade 1 Matriarch serving as the card's featured race.  We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as for the final time in 2016 we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Tuscany Beauty (Morning Line 9-5)

B’s

# 3 Buzzer Beater (ML 7-2)
# 5 Rockantharos (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Pragmatical (ML 3-1)
# 7 Cecile's Diamond (ML 6-1)

Tuscany Beauty shifts in from the state bred ranks to drop in for a tag for the first time in her career.  In addition, Tuscany Beauty appears to be the quickest in the field, as well as being one of the few competing here who has demonstrated the ability to win coming off the pace.  So why isn't Tuscany Beauty a single on our tickets?  It's because Tuscany Beauty will be ridden by T J Pereira, who is winless going into the final day of this meet, having managed only two Place finishes in his forty-six mounts.  In my opinion, when you have a jockey in a such an obvious slump, regardless of the reason, some caution is advised.  For that reason, I thought it advisable to spread in this leg.

Buzzer Beater seems to settle for too many minor awards; but she also appears to be the most likely candidate to be running best late in a field filled with need to lead types.  Rockantharos has shown the ability to win off a freshening, and is competing for the lowest tag in her career.

Pragmatical could be speed on the rail; though it's fair to question her stamina, even in a sprint such as this.  Cecile's Diamond faces winners for the first time after graduating last time out; Trainer Kristin Mulhall tends to do when when placing her last out victors.

RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 Time and Motion (ML 5-1)
# 12 Miss Temple City (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Zindaya (ML 9-2)
# 7 Roca Rojo (Ire) (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 9 Decked Out (ML 20-1)

Time and Motion, trained by Jimmy Toner, misses by half a length of entering this contest with a six race winning streak.Miss Temple City, trained by Graham Motion, defeated the boys in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland two starts back.  Zindaya, winner of the Grade 1 Goldikova last time out, and Roca Rojo (Ire), winner of the Grade 3 Athenia in her last contest, are both trained by Chad Brown.

RACE 8 - OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Jazzy Times (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 St. Joe Bay (ML 4-1)
# 2 Who's Out (ML 3-1)
# 6 The Gomper (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Jazzy Times, trained by Bob Baffert, gets some class relief after taking the Place against stakes competition last time out.  St. Joe Bay and Who's Out each took the Place in separate competitions at this class level last time out.  The Gomper missed victory by a nose at this class level the last time that he competed on a Fast dirt track.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Kona Dreams (ML 5-2)
# 13 Soglio (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Glacier (ML 4-1)
# 4 Popular Kid (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bobby G (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 5 Marchtothemusic (ML 5-1).  Bring in # 13 Soglio (ML 7-2) off The Also Eligible List.

Kona Dreams has finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts, both at this class level.  Soglio, trained by Graham Motion, missed graduation by just a neck at this class level at Belmont Park two starts back.

Glacier goes first time for Trainer Bob Baffert, as well as trying the turf for the first time.  Popular Kid took the Show at this class level two starts back.  Bobby G competes on the lawn for the first time, and just might be the quickest in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 11,12 with 5 with 1,13 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5 with 4,7,11,12 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,13 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 11,12 with 5 with 1,13 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11,12 with 5 with 3,4,9 $3.00

Total: $59.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: