12/31/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

So we come to the end of the line for 2016, and to send it on its way the good people at Santa Anita Park have give us a card with three Graded Stakes; one of which, The American Oaks, has found itself among the final four contests on the program.  So we'll be looking at that event below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Irap (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 12 Sheer Flattery (ML 4-1)

C's

# 5 Leading Score (ML 12-1)
# 6 Blame Joe (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 2 Surfside Sunset (ML 5-1), # 3 Sonneteer (ML 8-1), # 9 Union Rebel (ML 15-1), # 13 Lucky Bode (ML 30-1), and # 14 Haskin (ML 15-1)

Irap took the Place in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Mastery last time out.  Sheer Flattery took the Place behind Mastery at this class level over this main track two starts back.

Surfside Sunset showed late interest in his debut last time out.  Sonneteer has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last three contests.  Leading Score showed some early foot in his debut last time out.  Blame Joe has taken the Show at this class level in two of his three career starts.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Indavidualist (ML 3-1)
# 9 Blue Anchor (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 7 Paynes Prairie (ML 12-1)
# 10 Alley Boss (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Guy Code (ML 20-1)
# 5 My Prince Harry (ML 12-1)

Indavidualist took the Show at this approximate class level sprinting on the turf last time out, after having graduated on the main track in his debut.  Blue Anchor took the Place at this approximate class level in two of his last three starts.  Paynes Prairie took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.  Alley Boss moves up the class ladder after a pair of convincing victories against lesser company.

Guy Code drops a step on the class ladder, and could be speed on the rail.  My Prince Harry tries winners for the first time after graduating by daylight last time out.

RACE 8 - (F) The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Sassy Little Lila (ML 9-2)

B's

# 2 Stays in Vegas (ML 7-2)
# 5 Cheekaboo (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Lady Valeur (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 7 Decked Out (ML 4-1)
# 8 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 10 Sheeza Milky Way (ML 10-1)
# 13 Mokat (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Mrs. Norris (ML 30-1)

EDIT - THE DISTANCE HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM TEN FURLONGS TO NINE FURLONGS

Despite the change in distance, I've made no adjustments to either my selections or my analysis.  I'll stand by my original picks. - Jimbo

Sassy Little Lila ships in from New York after having taken the Place in The Winter Memories at Aqueduct last time out.  Stays in Vegas will try to get her early speed to last all ten furlongs.

Cheekaboo, winner of the Grade 2 Honeymoon over this turf course back in June, looks like she'll do well covering the added real estate.  Lady Valeur (Ire) defeated older in a listed stakes upstate last time out.  Decked Out and Mokat are a pair of Graded Stakes winners that are questionable at today's distance.

Queen Blossom (Ire) is making her first North American start; note that Trainer Graham Motion tends to do well with such.  Also note that Queen Blossom's career victories both came off works only.  Sheeza Milky Way could be the one running best late.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Lucky Dolly (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Very Hot (ML 4-1)
# 6 Gypsy Ju Ju (ML 7-2)
# 11 Fair Escape (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Crowded Way (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 2 All of a Sudden (ML 8-1)

Lucky Dolly missed graduation by just a neck two starts back, the only prior time that she ran with a price tag on her head.  Very Hot and Fair Escape are both dropping in for a tag for the first time in their respective careers; and both Very Hot and Fair Escape are trained by conditioners (Phil D'Amato and Gary Sherlock, respectively) who tend to do well with that move.

Gypsy Ju Ju just missed the Show at this class level in her debut last time out.  Crowded Way could move up with a better beginning than what she encountered last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 3,9 with 6 with 12 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 10,12 with 3,7,9,10 with 2,5,6 with 4,6,11,12 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 3,9 with 6 with 12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6 with 12 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3,9 with 1,7,8,10,13 with 12 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 3,9 with 6 with 3 $1.00

Total: $59.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/26/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The San Simeon - # 11 Bettys Bambino (Final Odds 6.90) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The La Brea - # 4 Constellation (12.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Malibu - # 2 Mind Your Biscuits (3.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Mathis Brothers Mile - # 4 Conquest Enforcer (1.80*) - "A" Selection

Our "A" Selection in the second leg, # 3 Finley'sluckycharm (1.80), did all the heavy lifting in The La Brea, taking the field around the track, leading the pack by a length and a half in the drive; but she got caught by Constellation in the shadow of the wire, and had to settle for the Place, a half length behind the winner.  And that half length was the difference between us cashing or trashing, as a win by Finley'sluckycharm would have allowed us to collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  11 / 4 / 2 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $756.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/26/16 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Merry Day After Christmas and Happy Boxing Day!  As is tradition, December 26 marks Opening Day for Santa Anita; and, as such, it makes for an unofficial transition from the three year olds of the current year (for whom the final three contests Monday are carded) to the three year olds of the next, who will officially be of Derby and Oaks age in less than a week.  To celebrate the occasion the good people of Arcadia have given us a card where each of the final four races is a Graded Stakes; so let's get to it, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Hobbits Hero (Morning Line 15-1)
# 11 Bettys Bambino (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Stormy Liberal (ML 8-1)
# 9 He Will (ML 6-1)
# 12 Holy Lute (9-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 1 Jimmy Bouncer (ML 12-1) and # 10 Tough Sunday (ML 20-1)

Hobbits Hero has demonstrated an affinity for this course in the past, and his early foot should carry him well charging down the hill today.  Bettys Bambino is a Graded Stakes winner charging down the hill; and while the extended vacation is a concern, Bettys Bambino has won off just works in the past, including his debut.

Stormy Liberal makes a sizable move up in class; but his recent efforts fit well with the contenders here.  He Will could be the one running best late.  Holy Lute won half of the Grade 3 Eddie D charging down the hill two starts back.

RACE 7 - (F) The La Brea (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Finley'sluckycharm (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Lightstream (ML 2-1)

C's

# 6 Chao Chom (ML 8-1)
# 7 Enola Gray (ML 9-2)

Finley'sluckycharm early or Lightstream late; that's pretty much how this contest shapes up, in my opinion.  And while it would have been nice to see these two get at least one work over this main track, I think  that these two are clearly the most talented runners in this field, and that should be sufficient to carry the day.  However, should they both encounter difficulty handling the surface, Chao Chom and Enola Gray, who filled out the Exacta in the Betty Grable last time out, look to be the most likely beneficiaries.

RACE 8 - The Malibu (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Ten Blessings (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sharp Azteca (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 5-2)
# 5 Jazzy Times (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Navy Hymn (No Line)

Ten Blessings took a big step forward last time out in his fourth career start, and has been working well over this main track for Trainer Bob Baffert.  Sharp Azteca is a Graded Stakes winner shipping in from the east, and his work here on the 19th suggests that he should handle this track well.

Mind Your Biscuits took the Show in The Breeders' Cup Sprint over this main track last time out.  Jazzy Times could be challenging Sharp Azteca up front early, and just might be able to hold on late.

RACE 9 - The Mathis Brothers Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Blackjackcat (ML 4-1)
# 4 Conquest Enforcer (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Mittersill (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 3 Moonlight Drive (Ity) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Frank Conversation (ML 4-1)
# 10 Defiantly (ML 15-1)

C's

# 9 Blackout (Fr) (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Fabozzi (ML 20-1)

Blackjackcat should benefit from the reduced amount of real estate that he'll need to cover today.  Conquest Enforcer makes his California debut for Trainer Phil D'Amato after having taken the Show against older in a pair of Graded Stakes at Woodbine.

Mittersill (Ire) and Defiantly filled out the Quinella in The Let It Ride at Del Mar last month.  Moonlight Drive (Ity) may be the runner here best suited to today's distance.  Frank Conversation is too talented to leave off the big ticket, but I suspect that Frank Conversation needs longer in order to show his best.  Blackout (Fr) could be the one running best late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,11 with 3 with 4,7 with 2,4 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,9,11,12 with 2,3 with 4,7 with 1,2,3,4,8,10 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,11 with 6,7 with 4,7 with 2,4 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,11 with 3 with 2,5 with 2,4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,11 with 3 with 4,7 with 9 $2.00

Total: $82.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:31 EST / 2:31 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Merry Christmas!

"Christmas is the spirit of giving without a thought of getting. It is happiness because we see joy in people. It is forgetting self and finding time for others. It is discarding the meaningless and stressing the true values." - Thomas S. Monson

Here's hoping that Santa rode the rail to bring you all that you desire.  Merry Christmas!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/23/16 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 5 Prom Theme (Final Odds 2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Noshackleshere (3.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Game On Bro (14.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 1 My Foolish Beau (13.20) - "B" Selection

We did well enough on the ends but whiffed in the middle; and a sandwich with nothing between the bread just ain't worth much.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 11 / 4 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $5,159.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/23/16 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

Season's Greetings, one and all!  With tomorrow being Christmas Eve, as well as the start of Hanukkah, it seemed like this evening was a good time to have some pre-holiday handicapping fun, and Turfway Park being as good a venue as any to have it.  Besides, you didn't think that I'd go the whole week that California thoroughbred racing was dark without any plays, did you?  So let's get to it, as we turn our attention to Florence, Kentucky, and take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Pure Legacy (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Star Killer (ML 12-1)
# 5 Prom Theme (ML 5-2)
# 8 Baja Bessie (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Sweets N Treats (ML 6-1)
# 6 Do I Dare (ML 10-1)

The conditions limit this contest to fillies and mares three years old and upward which have not won two races since July 18, 2016.  Note that Star Killer gets in just under the wire for that condition, as Star Killer's two most recent victories have come on August 20 and July 17 of this year; and that's a good enough angle to give Star Killer a spot on our big ticket, even though she doesn't appear to be in top form.

Pure Legacy missed victory by less than a length at this class level last time out over this track; with Prom Theme, the Post Time Favorite in that contest, following less than a length behind her.  Baja Bessie defeated open (non-conditioned) $5k Claimers at Belterra Park two starts back.

Sweets N Treats gets some much needed class relief here.  Do I Dare should be forwardly placed early.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 The Hans Sum One (ML 3-1)
# 8 Not E Z Beinggreen (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Wazzup Chuck (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Carmelo (ML 8-1)
# 3 Hay Net (ML 8-1)
# 10 Doggie Dawg (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 5 Run the Alley (ML 4-1)

Note that Race 7 and Race 9 are two divisions of the same contest, both being for juvenile non-claiming maidens at the identical six and a half furlong distance.

The Hans Sum One, Not E Z Beinggreen, and Wazzup Chuck are all first time starters whose breeding suggests that they should be ready to roll at first asking.  Carmelo and Doggie Dawg are another pair of debut starters who could run well here, but will probably benefit from having a race under their belt.  Hay Net flashed some good early foot against $30k Claimers at Churchill Downs last time out before fading, and will have a half furlong less real estate to cover tonight.

RACE 8 - Clm $15k N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Rakeitin (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Buck Benny (ML 8-1)
# 5 Shutter Speed (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Quality Street (ML 10-1)
# 7 Back Togetheragain (ML 8-1)
# 8 Rabanito (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 6 Stan's Old Habits (ML 5-1)

Rakeitin moves up in class after winning at the N2L level over this track last time out.  Rakeitin has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career starts over this track.  Buck Benny returns to flat racing, having taken the Show the last time that he competed at tonight's distance (albeit on the grass).

Shutter Speed is making a significant class drop.  Quality Street took the Show at this class level last time out.  Back Togetheragain and Rabanito dueled early with each other in the early going last time out at this class level; perhaps one will get the advantage of the other tonight early enough to still have enough in the tank for the final drive.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Durango Dan (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 My Foolish Beau (ML 15-1)
# 4 Sight Line (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Big Gambler (ML 15-1)

C's

# 5 Cowboy Quinn (ML 5-1)
# 11 Capture the Glory (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Masonio (ML 5-2), # 8 Whiskey Moon (ML 6-1), and # 10 West End Gambler (ML 8-1)

Note that Race 7 and Race 9 are two divisions of the same contest, both being for juvenile non-claiming maidens at the identical six and a half furlong distance.

Durango Dan took the Place at this class level over this track last time out.  My Foolish Beau, Sight Line, and The Big Gambler are all first time starters whose breeding suggests that they should be ready to roll at first asking.  Cowboy Quinn took the Show behind Durango Dan last time out.  Capture the Glory flashed good early speed in his debut last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 1,8 with 9 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,7,8 with 1,4,8 with 1,5,9 with 1,4,6,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 1,8 with 9 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3,10 with 9 with 6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,8 with 3,7,8 with 6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,8 with 9 with 5,11 $2.00

Total: $82.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 8:40 EST / 5:40 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo