Monday, September 4, 2017

9/4/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 2 Candy Pink (Final Odds 6.10) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Giant Mark (3.20) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Dixie Pistol (4.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Fair Advantage (3.30) - No Selection

Did Giant Mark deserve greater consideration from me in the second leg of the sequence?  Giant Mark had failed to hit the board last time out against $6.25k N2X Claimers and was moving up Sunday to open (no conditions) $8k Claimers.  But Giant Mark was switching from turf (where he is a lifetime oh-for-three) to synthetic (where he was three-for-nineteen heading into Monday's action.  In addition, Giant Mark was switching to a barn that has been enjoying success with runners going first off the claim.  So perhaps more consideration should have been given to placing Giant Mark on the big ticket.

As for Fair Advantage, who on Monday was victorious on the Golden Gate main track for the first time in his ninth attempt, I would credit his victory to the contest's pace shape, which set up well for his closing abilities; an eventuality that perhaps should have been foreseen.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 5 / 2 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $462.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/4/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

"If all the cars in the United States were placed end to end, it would probably be Labor Day Weekend." - Doug Larson

And so we make it to the holiday.  Hopefully this weekend has been everything that you had hoped that it would be, and that all of your plans for today come to fruition.  For me, those plans involving cashing on today's action at Golden Gate; so let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Alw 4000s - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Bellanza (Morning Line 1-1)

B’s

# 2 Candy Pink (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Shez a Griller (ML 3-1)
# 6 Panshir (ML 9-2)

Note for future reference that this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  So any filly or mare that has started for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

Bellanza took the Show against classier stock last time out.  Candy Pink tries some California grass for the first time Monday; and while Candy Pink's turf pedigree isn't especially strong, that's less important in sprints such as this, where speed is the determinant factor.

Shez a Griller took the Place at this class level last time out.  Panshir could be the one running best late.

RACE 7 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Eddie and the King (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 6 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 9-5)

C's

# 5 Giant Mark (ML 7-2)

Eddie and the King has finished in the Trifecta against more expensive stock in each of his last two races, albeit on real dirt.  Sizzlin' Joe goes first off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with such.  Giant Mark could improve with the surface switch.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Junior G Man (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lucky Bode (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Cackle the Cuda (ML 4-1)
# 2 Dixie Pistol (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 7 Southern Loyalty (ML 8-1)

Junior G Man took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the dirt at Sacramento.  Lucky Bode took the Show in the $50k Robert Dupret Derby last time out.  Cackle the Cuda has finished in the Trifecta eight of the nine times that he has competed over this turf course.  Dixie Pistol could be the one running best late.

RACE 9 - Clm $16k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 He's a Tiger (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Grand Palais (ML 8-5)
# 2 Van Lingle Mungo (ML 3-1)

C's

None

He's a Tiger missed victory by just a head last time out at this class level, albeit on real dirt.  Grant Palais took the Place against more expensive stock up at Emerald Downs two and three starts back.  Van Lingle Mungo could move up with the surface switch.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 5 with 4 with 3,6 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5 with 4,6 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,4 $24.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 4 with 3,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 5 with 3,6 with 4 $1.00

Total: $29.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:22 EDT / 4:22 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, September 3, 2017

9/3/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 5 Mototapu (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Breakaway Dixie (20.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Crown Kitten (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Percy's Bluff (1.30*) - "A" Selection

Needless to say, I chose the wrong contest in which to use the full field.  I had everyone covered in some way, shape, or form in both the opening leg and the third leg, only to see the Post Time Favorite get their picture taken after each of those contests.  Meanwhile, I had absolutely no part of the big priced winner of the second leg, Breakaway Dixie; a filly who had not only been absent from the Winner's Circle for quite a spell, but who also had spent considerable time outside of the Exacta.  But that's one of the requirements to be successful at this game: you need to know when to pinpoint and when to spread; and having failed at that task Sunday made it a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 4 / 3 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $141.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/3/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the mid-point of a holiday weekend in the US, and the final four contests at Golden Gate Fields includes a Maiden Claiming contest where all the runners are first time starters, as well as a genuine Starter Allowance that doesn't have lifetime Win restriction.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Devil's Beauty (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Motutapu (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 2 Forest Wildflower (ML 5-2)
# 4 Classy Lady Liz (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Tough Penny (ML 8-1)
# 6 Vronilla Parfait (ML 12-1)

Devil's Beauty has won three of her last four contests, including her most recent foray over this main track.  Motutapu is Exhibit A as to why track announcers are worth every bit of their paycheck, as that's going to be a tough one to get right.  Motutapu should benefit from the class relief that she is receiving here.

Forest Wildflower and Classy Lady Liz are both dropping down from the open (no conditions) claiming ranks.  Tough Penny, a re-claim by Trainer Valerie Rhoden, could be the one running best late.  Vronilla Parfait is on the ticket because everyone else is.  No first round knockout today!

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 10 Emeralds Miss (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Lyrics (ML 3-1)
# 7 Please Do (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Hal's Buddy (ML 6-1)
# 6 Hawk's Journey (ML 10-1)
# 9 Gotham's Princess (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 11 The Incident (ML 20-1) and # 12 Rose Among Thorns (ML 12-1); but don't bring in the Also Eligible # 13 Tiburtina (ML 5-2), as she's scratched too.

Emeralds Miss returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Ricardo Perez, who has some success with such.  Emeralds Miss has finished in the Exacta six of the seven times that she has competed over this turf course.

Please Do took the Place in an N1X Optional Claimer last time out on the Santa Rosa turf, with Hal's Buddy taking the Show behind her.  Hawk's Journey, returning from downstate, has run well over this turf course in the past.  Gotham's Princess is undefeated after two career starts; perhaps she can keep that streak going Sunday.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $25k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Marymoor Park (ML 9-2)
# 3 Crown Kitten (ML 5-2)
# 4 Carnaby Cat (ML 10-1)

B's

# 2 A Brides Song (ML 10-1)
# 5 Amers (ML 3-1)
# 6 Causeway's Girl (ML 5-1)
# 7 Shahali Shari (ML 4-1)

C's

None

These are all juvenile fillies, and they are all first time starters.  The "A" Selections are those who have sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, as well as coming from barns whose debut runners have not infrequent success.  The "B" Selections are the rest of the field.  Since all seven of these fillies are being offered for sale without having ever once competed, it's fair to presume that none of them are considered world beaters by their connections; so I will be playing this leg as such, with the belief that anyone of them could emerge as Sunday's winner.

RACE 9 - Alw 12500s - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Percy's Bluff (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Johnny Reb (ML 3-1)
# 6 Gloria's Angelo (ML 12-1)
# 7 Soap Box (ML 9-2)

Scratch # 4 Thirty Pepperonis (ML 8-1); # 9 Van Lingle Mungo (ML 12-1); and # 10 Private Joke (ML 10-1);  but don't bring in the Also Eligibles, # 11 Juansagain (ML 5-2) and # 12 Lucky Cotton (ML 20-1), as they are scratched as well.

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

Percy's Bluff, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has won nine of his last eleven contests, and has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last sixteen tries.  Johnny Reb has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two contests, both against classier competition.  Gloria's Angelo and Soap Box should be prominent early, and either could be difficult to run down should they break loose from the pack.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 3,5 with 10 with 1,3,4 with 8 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5 with 1,7,10 with ALL with 8 $42.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 10 with 1,3,4 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 5,6,9 with 1,3,4 with 8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 10 with 1,3,4 with 1,6,7 $9.00

Total: $69.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:21 EDT / 4:21 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, September 2, 2017

9/2/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 1 Spring Heat (Final Odds 16.90) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Midvale Magic (2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Force (Ire) (2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Pop Fizz Clink (1.30*) - "B" Selection

First round knockouts are never any fun; but not having the highest priced runner in the opening leg field on any of my tickets is a forgivable sin; at least in my book.  God bless you if you were smart enough to include Spring Heat in you play prior to the running, because I'm having a difficult time making a case for her even with the race long since over.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 1 / 3 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $606.20 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/2/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Saturday kicks off Labor Day Weekend in the USA, and that's pretty much all I have by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 No More Twinkies (Morning Line 2-1)
# 7 Look Quickly (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Elle Woods Too (ML 4-1)
# 4 Our Favorite City (ML 12-1)

No More Twinkies and Look Quickly were separated by less than a length at the wire when they filled out the Exacta at this class level over this turf course back in May.  Elle Woods Too could be the speed of the speed here; but the lifetime oh-for-seven record on the grass is a concern.  Our Favorite City could move up in this, her turf debut.

RACE 7 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Midvale Magic (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Crawford's Glove (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tribal Again (ML 6-1)


C's

None

Scratch # 6 Weyand (ML 2-1)

My Past Performances tell me that this is officially an N2L (non-winners of two lifetime); but a read of the conditions make it clear that it's actually an N2X (non-winners of two lifetime other than etc., etc.).  Note that all entrants in this field have two or more lifetime wins.

Midvale Magic defeated a next out winner last time out on the dirt at Sacramento, and seems to be well placed for a repeat victory.  Crawford's Glove was a winner the last time that he competed over this main track.  Tribal Again could be the one running best late.

RACE 8 - OC $62.5k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 A Red Tie Day (ML 9-5)
# 6 Anythingscookin (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Goodwood Mirage (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 3 Force (Ire) (ML 5-2)

C's

None

A Red Tie Day could improve going second off the layoff for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.  Anythingscookin was a winner at this class level two starts back, albeit on the dirt at Sacramento.

Goodwood Mirage (Ire) could improve with the reduction in real estate.  Force (Ire) tends to do well when he ships in from downstate.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $8k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Tizfit (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Ballerina Headline (ML 2-1)
# 7 Pop Fizz Clink (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Dizzy Tizzy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Handful of Pearls (ML 15-1)

This contest is restricted to fillies and mares which have either:

1) Not won a race since June 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, she's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of May (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $6.25k or less don't count when computing the Win totals).  For the record, # 1 It Girl (ML 12-1), # 5 Ballerina Headline (ML 2-1), and # 6 Naughty Haughty (15-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.

Tizfit was victorious each of the last three times that she competed over this main track.  Ballerina Headline, ambitiously placed last time out, returns to a more realistic class level.  Pop Fizz Clink fits well here on class, though she seems to settle for too many minor awards.  Dizzy Tizzy could improve with the return to the synthetic surface.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 5,7 with 1 with 4,6 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,4,6 with 4,5,7 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1 with 4,6 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 1 with 4,6 with 2 $2.00

Total: $44.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo