It's the mid-point of a holiday weekend in the US, and the final four contests at Golden Gate Fields includes a Maiden Claiming contest where all the runners are first time starters, as well as a genuine Starter Allowance that doesn't have lifetime Win restriction. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Devil's Beauty (Morning Line 3-1)
# 5 Motutapu (ML 8-5)
B’s
# 2 Forest Wildflower (ML 5-2)
# 4 Classy Lady Liz (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Tough Penny (ML 8-1)
# 6 Vronilla Parfait (ML 12-1)
Devil's Beauty has won three of her last four contests, including her most recent foray over this main track. Motutapu is Exhibit A as to why track announcers are worth every bit of their paycheck, as that's going to be a tough one to get right. Motutapu should benefit from the class relief that she is receiving here.
Forest Wildflower and Classy Lady Liz are both dropping down from the open (no conditions) claiming ranks. Tough Penny, a re-claim by Trainer Valerie Rhoden, could be the one running best late. Vronilla Parfait is on the ticket because everyone else is. No first round knockout today!
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 10 Emeralds Miss (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Lyrics (ML 3-1)
# 7 Please Do (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Hal's Buddy (ML 6-1)
# 6 Hawk's Journey (ML 10-1)
# 9 Gotham's Princess (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 11 The Incident (ML 20-1) and # 12 Rose Among Thorns (ML 12-1); but don't bring in the Also Eligible # 13 Tiburtina (ML 5-2), as she's scratched too.
Emeralds Miss returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Ricardo Perez, who has some success with such. Emeralds Miss has finished in the Exacta six of the seven times that she has competed over this turf course.
Please Do took the Place in an N1X Optional Claimer last time out on the Santa Rosa turf, with Hal's Buddy taking the Show behind her. Hawk's Journey, returning from downstate, has run well over this turf course in the past. Gotham's Princess is undefeated after two career starts; perhaps she can keep that streak going Sunday.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $25k - Five Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Marymoor Park (ML 9-2)
# 3 Crown Kitten (ML 5-2)
# 4 Carnaby Cat (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 A Brides Song (ML 10-1)
# 5 Amers (ML 3-1)
# 6 Causeway's Girl (ML 5-1)
# 7 Shahali Shari (ML 4-1)
C's
None
These are all juvenile fillies, and they are all first time starters. The "A" Selections are those who have sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, as well as coming from barns whose debut runners have not infrequent success. The "B" Selections are the rest of the field. Since all seven of these fillies are being offered for sale without having ever once competed, it's fair to presume that none of them are considered world beaters by their connections; so I will be playing this leg as such, with the belief that anyone of them could emerge as Sunday's winner.
RACE 9 - Alw 12500s - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Percy's Bluff (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Johnny Reb (ML 3-1)
# 6 Gloria's Angelo (ML 12-1)
# 7 Soap Box (ML 9-2)
Scratch # 4 Thirty Pepperonis (ML 8-1); # 9 Van Lingle Mungo (ML 12-1); and # 10 Private Joke (ML 10-1); but don't bring in the Also Eligibles, # 11 Juansagain (ML 5-2) and # 12 Lucky Cotton (ML 20-1), as they are scratched as well.
Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry. So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Percy's Bluff, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has won nine of his last eleven contests, and has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last sixteen tries. Johnny Reb has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two contests, both against classier competition. Gloria's Angelo and Soap Box should be prominent early, and either could be difficult to run down should they break loose from the pack.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 3,5 with 10 with 1,3,4 with 8 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5 with 1,7,10 with ALL with 8 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 10 with 1,3,4 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 5,6,9 with 1,3,4 with 8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 10 with 1,3,4 with 1,6,7 $9.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:21 EDT / 4:21 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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