9/17/17 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

It's the final Summer Sunday of 2017, and with it comes the final day of Golden Gate's mini meet.  So that makes Sunday a mandatory payout day for the Pick Five, the Super High-Five, and (most importantly for us) the Golden Pick Six.  For the occasion there is a non-Graded Stake on the card, the Rolling Green; though its placement in the program as Race 5 is rather curious (perhaps they weren't expecting it to draw as well as it did).  So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 5 - The Rolling Green $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 G. G. Ryder (Morning Line 5-1)
# 4 Street Lad (ML 7-2)
# 5 Camino Del Paraiso (ML 6-1)

B's

None

C's

None

Street Lad, Camino Del Paraiso, and G. G. Ryder were all within a length of each other (in that order) at the wire last time out in the $50k Joseph T Grace at Santa Rosa, and there's little reason to think that these three won't be closely bunched on the line again Sunday.  If I had to pick one of the three as top choice, I would probably lean towards Street Lad, as early speed seems to be holding up well this meet on the Golden Gate grass; but on the other hand, as the winner of the prior encounter, Street Lad is likely to draw a disproportionate amount of the Win pool funds relative to the other two contenders, thus making him a less attractive option as top choice.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Zahabra (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 3 Cut (ML 9-5)
# 7 Autumn Blitz (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 5 Bunker Buster (ML 15-1)

Zahabra looks to be the clear class of this field, having graduated last time out against $25k Maiden Claimers, after having taken the Show against non-Claiming Maidens two starts back.  The time away since that victory could be a concern, but Zahabra seems to have run well in the past after taking some time off.

Cut graduated by daylight over this main track last time out.  Autumn Blitz took the Place at this class level last time out; but the concern with Autumn Blitz is that he seems to settle for too many minor awards.

RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Mirror Image (ML 8-1)

B's

# 7 Oil (ML 3-1)
# 9 Brownie Finale (ML 4-1)

C's

# 6 Jen's Journey (ML 12-1)

# 8 Hot Lightning (ML 7-2)

# 10 Swingshift Deputy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 11 Soap Box (ML 4-1), # 12 Luck Lasts (ML 9-2), and # 13 Incensed (ML 6-5), none of whom draw in off the Also Eligible list

Mirror Image will be trying the turf for the first time today, and if his speed carries over to the new surface Mirror Image should be very tough to beat.  Brownie Finale and Oil filled out the bottom two slots, respectively, of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.

Jen's Journey was a neck better than Mirror Image last December while cashing at odds of 14-1; maybe lightning will strike twice.  Speaking of lightning, Hot Lightning was a winner at this class level two starts back; but the concern with Hot Lightning is that he has finished off the board in each of his two prior turf starts.  Swingshift Deputy was victorious at this class level in his only prior try over this turf course.

RACE 8 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Regal Born (ML 9-5)

B’s

None

C's

# 3 Levitation (ML 6-1)

# 5 Red Car Mac (ML 5-1)

# 6 Pamper Me Now (ML 8-1)

# 7 Out At Eight (ML 5-2)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less.  For the record, # 3 Levitation (ML 6-1) is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle multiple times.

Regal Born took the Place against $40k open claimers down at Del Mar last time out.  Levitation, as mentioned above, is the only two-time winner in this field, and will be going first off the claim for Trainer Bob Hess, Jr.

Red Car Mac and Pamper Me Now took the Place and Show, respectively, at this class level last time out.  Out At Eight graduated by daylight against non-Claiming Maidens over this main track last time out.

RACE 9 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Hittheroadrunning (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 5 American Aristocat (ML 9-2)

# 6 Mighty Marino (ML 20-1)

# 8 Gurnick (ML 3-1)

# 10 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Hot Market (ML 12-1)
# 13 Belisarius (Ire) (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 7 Volkonsky (ML 20-1) and # 12 Kern Ridge (ML 20-1).  Bring in # 13 Belisarius (Ire) off the Also Eligible list.

Hittheroadrunning took the Place at this class level last time out, and was a winner by daylight (again at this class level) the last time that he competed over a firm turf course.  Gurnick and American Aristocat were just a head apart at the wire while filling out the Exacta at this class level last time out.

Mighty Marino could improve with the surface switch.  Sizzlin' Joe goes second off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with such.

Hot Market could move up with the class drop.  Belisarius (Ire), shipping in from downstate, could improve with the barn change and rider switch.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Dixie Avenue (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Warm and Sunny (ML 9-2)

# 4 Going Viral (ML 6-1)

# 5 Royal Chatter (ML 12-1)

# 9 Tiz Seeking a Win (ML 5-2)

C's

# 8 Kolocha (ML 10-1)

Dixie Avenue looks to be much the quickest in this field, and her early speed should carry her further with the class drop.  Warm and Sunny took the Place at this class level last time out.  Going Viral and Kolocha took the Place and Show, respectively, at this class level last time out.

Royal Chatter finished in the money against a next out winner last time out.  Tiz Seeking a Win took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back.

OK, that's the analysis.  Since this is a mandatory payout day, there are no concerns about having pressed up a single winning selection multiple times (the unkind readers out there are no doubt thinking that there is never such a concern with these selections).  So with all that, playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 2,4,5 with 4 with 2 with 4 with 1 with 3 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 2,4,5 with 4 with 2,7,9 with 4 with 1,5,6,8,10 with 1,3,4,5,9 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 2,4,5 with 3,7 with 2 with 4 with 1 with 3 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 2,4,5 with 4 with 6,8,10 with 4 with 1 with 3 $1.80

$0.20 P6: 2,4,5 with 4 with 2 with 3,5,6,7 with 1 with 3 $2.40

$0.20 P6: 2,4,5 with 4 with 2 with 4 with 2,13 with 3 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 2,4,5 with 4 with 2 with 4 with 1 with 8 $0.60

Total: $55.20

Post Time for Race 5 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo