11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 7 Fire At Will (Final Odds 30.20) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 2 Vequist (6.60) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 5 Aunt Pearl (2.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Juvenile - # 5 Essential Quality (3.70) - "A" Selection

If it's possible to be right when you were wrong, that's how I feel about my assessment of the BC Juvenile Turf (Race 7).  In the preview I wrote that it was "as wide open as any such contest can be;" and I believe that opinion proved to be correct, as evidenced by the victor paying in excess of sixty dollars to Win.  Still, it's not enough to correctly assess the likelihood of there being an upset winner; you have to correctly predict which longshot runner will pull the upset.  I did not; and for that, and other reasons, Friday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 2 / 5 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $3,081.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success." - Albert Schweitzer

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 New Mandate (Ire) (Moring Line 12-1)

B's

# 5 Cadillac (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 6 Mutasaabeq (ML 5-1)

# 9 Battleground (ML 6-1)

# 11 Gretzky the Great (ML 8-1)
# 12 Go Athletico (Fr) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Sealiway (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Abarta (ML 12-1)

# 4 Public Sector (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Fire At Will (ML 12-1)
# 8 Outadore (ML 8-1)

# 10 Ebeko (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 13 Devilwala (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 14 The Lir Jet (Ire) (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Barrister Tom (ML 30-1) and # 16 Harlan Estate (ML 30-1)

This contest strikes me as being as wide open as any such contest can be.  While going "ALL" in a race with over a dozen leaving the gate was never a serious consideration, I did wonder if my bankroll might be better served by cutting back to a Pick Three for this sequence.  But what fun is that?

New Mandate (Ire) enters this event with a nice three race winning streak; and New Mandate seems well positioned to get first run at the leaders.  Cadillac (Ire) projects to be forwardly placed early; and Cadillac is a Group Stakes winner at eight furlongs.  Mutasaabeq proved that a deep closer can win over this turf course, as Mutasaabeq came from well off the pace last time out to win the Grade 2 Bourbon.

Battleground is undefeated with Ryan Moore on his back.  Gretzky the Great won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes for fun at Woodbine last time out.  Go Athletico (Fr) has yet to finish out of the Exacta in five career starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Simply Ravishing (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Dayoutoftheoffice (ML 5-2)

# 5 Girl Daddy (ML 6-1)

# 7 Princess Noor (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Vequist (ML 8-1)

# 4 Thoughtfully (ML 20-1)

# 6 Crazy Beautiful (ML 20-1)

Simply Ravishing, Dayoutoftheoffice, and Princess Noor are all undefeated in three career starts.  I give the edge to Simply Ravishing because Simply Ravishing already has a win over this main track at today's distance.

Girl Daddy, winner of the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs last time out, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Miss Amulet (Ire) (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Plum Ali (ML 4-1)

# 5 Aunt Pearl (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 8 Mother Earth (Ire) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Oodnadatta (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 3 Alda (ML 12-1)

# 6 Nazuna (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 9 Madone (ML 10-1)

# 10 Campanelle (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 11 Royal Approval (ML 10-1)

# 12 Spanish Loveaffair (ML 15-1)

# 13 Union Gables (ML 20-1)
# 14 Editor At Large (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 15 Invincible Gal (GB) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 7 Tetragonal (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Snowfall (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

Miss Amulet (Ire), a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed in the UK, looks classy enough to handle this field; and Miss Amulet's breeding suggests that she should do just fine with the distance.  Plum Ali, winner of the Grade 2 Miss Grillo last time out, could get first run at the leaders; while Aunt Pearl (Ire) projects to be among the pacesetters.

Mother Earth (Ire) could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Essential Quality (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Jackie's Warrior (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 Camp Hope (ML 30-1)
# 2 King Fury (ML 15-1)

# 3 Reinvestment Risk (ML 9-1)

# 4 Likeable (ML 15-1)

# 6 Keepmeinmind (ML 30-1)

# 8 Classier (ML 12-1)

# 9 Sitting On Go (ML 12-1)

# 10 Dreamer's Disease (ML 30-1)
# 11 Next (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hot Rod Charlie (ML 30-1)
# 13 Rombauer (ML 15-1)
# 14 Calibrate (ML 20-1)

Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Breeder's Futurity over this main track at today's distance last time out.  Jackie's Warrior enters this event with a perfect four-for-four record for his career, which includes three Graded Stakes wins.  The only question with Jackie's Warrior is how he'll handle going around two turns for the first time; but that's no small question.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,9,11,12 with 1,3,5,7 with 2,4,5,8 with 5,7 $96.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14 with 1 with 2 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,6 with 2 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1,3,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 with 5 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 $6.00

Total: $113.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:10 EST / 12:10 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/31/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"Of all the liars in the world, sometimes the worst are our own fears." - Rudyard Kipling

Happy Halloween all!  Hopefully this weekend finds us all enjoying the holiday's festivities as we work our way towards next weekend's really big treat: The Breeders' Cup.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - ALW N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Much Better (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 4 Changi (ML 6-1)

# 7 Valentine Street (ML 15-1)

# 9 Fred'stwirlincandy (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Sonny Smack (ML 10-1)

# 2 Omen of Change (ML 15-1)

# 3 Candizar (ML 12-1)

# 6 Kauai (ML 9-2)

# 8 Fine Mate (ML 8-1)

# 10 Rocktizway (ML 30-1)

Much Better has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts, the most recent over this turf course, where Much Better missed victory by just a nose.

Changi should appreciate the class relief here, as well as the cutback in distance.  Valentine Street is moving up on the class ladder; but if Valentine Street can rebound to his effort two starts back, then Valentine Street may be the one getting his picture taken when this contest is over.

Fred'stwirlincandy has been a perfect two-for-two over this turf course since shipping in, and Fred'stwirlincandy could make it three-for-three Saturday.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Curtseytothekitten (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Betty Jean (ML 10-1)

# 9 Shaharazed (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Behold That Word (ML 5-1)

# 3 Raging Gold Digger (ML 8-1)

# 4 Undivided (ML 20-1)

# 8 Hey Roxy (ML 15-1)

# 10 Weneedtotalk (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 Love and Lemons (ML 6-1) and # 7 Yankee Pride (ML 20-1)

This contest is restricted to fillies or mares which have either:

1) Not won two races in 2020; OR

2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a filly or mare has fewer than four career Wins, then she's eligible to run in this race.  If a filly or mare has four career Wins or more, then only one of those Wins could have come this year.  For the record Curtseytothekitten and Weneedtotalk are the two entrants in this field with fewer than four career Wins.  Finally, note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds is $6.25K; or, rather, it would be, were there any Oklahoma breds running in this contest.

Curtseytothekitten won for fun over this main track last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Austin Gustafson, who tends to do well with such.  Betty Jean took the Show at this class level last time out.

Shaharazed disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against classier competition.  Shaharazed could rebound back to his effort two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Alw 10000s - OC 15k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Drc All Inclusive (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 He's Munnie (ML 8-1)

# 8 C Dub (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 St. Louis Guy (ML 12-1)

# 3 Eyes On Red (ML 15-1)

# 5 Taruca (ML 8-1)

# 9 Broadway Ice (ML 9-2)

# 10 Miltontown (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 4 Street Shark (ML 20-1) and # 6 Imma Wild Bling (ML 20-1)

This contest is a Starter Optional Claimer; an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, if you will.  Your horse is eligible to run here tag free if it is three years old or older and has started for a claiming price of $10k or less either this year or last.  That's the Starter Allowance provision.  If your horse doesn't meet that condition, you can still run it here, but it will be eligible to be claimed for $15k ($20k if it's an Oklahoma bred).  Note that # 4 Street Shark is the only entrant here running with a price tag on his head; though I'm not sure why, as Street Shark has run for a claiming price under $10k multiple times in the past twenty-two months.  EDIT - And now that Street Shark has been scratched, it's a moot point.

Drc All Inclusive and He's Munnie both took the Place last time out in separate contests while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite against classier competition.  C Dub is getting significant class relief here, while returning to the barn of Trainer Robertino Diodoro.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N2Y - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Fiddlers Tsunami (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 3 Our Lost Love (ML 4-1)

# 5 Best Kept Secret (ML 10-1)

C's

# 4 Brenda's an I Full (ML 10-1)

# 6 Tashiara (ML 5-1)

# 7 Cypress Point (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 1 Drip Brew (ML 3-1)

Fiddlers Tsunami could improve with a return to the turf.  Our Lost Love could improve with the cutback in distance.  Best Kept Secret has yet to finish out of the Exacta since joining the barn of Trainer Robert Cline.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 6 with 7 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5,7,9 with 1,6,9 with 1,7,8 with 2,3,5 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,8,10 with 6 with 7 with 2 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,4,8,10 with 7 with 2 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 6 with 2,3,5,9,10 with 2 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 6 with 7 with 4,6,7 $1.50

Total: $64.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/24/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 6 Vim and Vigor (Final Odds 3.50) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 4 Tapsolution (2.50*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 5 Fairway Magic (1.90*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 9 Archrival (2.40) - "C" Selection

My Pick Four play was done in by the two Maiden events, as neither victor of the non-Winners of One contests were to be found on the big ticket.

Oddly enough, it was the higher priced of the pair that I feel most upset about not using properly, for Vim and Vigor had run well in his prior race; and while that event had been on the turf, Vim and Vigor's breeding suggested that it should be no surprise that he would run well over the main track as well.

Conversely, Archrival had failed to graduate in fifteen attempts entering Saturday's running.  Archrival had also failed to make it into the Trifecta in each of his last four tries, including the last two, which were at Saturday's class level over the Remington Park main track.  But apparently removing the blinkers was the change that Archrival needed, as he crossed under the wire more than four lengths in front of his nearest rival Saturday.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  6 / 4 / 5 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $115.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/24/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"The more you do these things, the calmer you get" - Walker Buehler

A nice mix in the Final Four contests on Saturday evening's card in Oklahoma City, in my opinion; and that's all I've got today by way of introduction.  So with that let's get to it; as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Party of Fifteen (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

# 2 Mucho Bling (ML 5-1)

# 7 Tiztruculent (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Riante Sky (ML 8-1)

# 3 E Z Tapit (ML 15-1)
# 5 Firecracker Stand (ML 10-1)

# 6 Vim and Vigor (ML 6-1)

# 8 Underdog (ML 12-1)
# 9 Mystifier (ML 15-1)

These are juveniles, with four of the nine starters making their career debut.  Party of Fifteen, trained by Steve Asmussen, took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the 1-2 Post Time Favorite.  Party of Fifteen has finished in the Trifecta in three of his four career starts at this class level; so the ability to win is certainly there; now it's just a question of desire.

Mucho Bling looks to be the best of the first time starters.  Mucho Bling is out of Final Trick, who also produced Final Arrow, a Listed Stakes winner as a two year old.  Tiztruculent took the Show at this class level last time out.  Tiztruculent's breeding suggests that he could improve with the added distance.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - Clm $25k N3L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Camps Bay (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 4 Tapsolution (ML 3-1)

# 5 Ego (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Declare War (ML 20-1)

# 6 Dauntless Prince (ML 20-1)
# 7 Clifton Park (ML 15-1)
# 8 Southgate (ML 8-1)

# 9 More Than A. P. (ML 5-1)

# 10 Atomic Candy (ML 15-1)
# 11 Mighty Merle (ML 20-1)

# 12 Captive Kitten (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Jack's Advantage (ML 12-1)

Camps Bay has shown great improvement since joining the barn of Trainer Robertino Diodoro and moving to Remington Park, as both of Camps Bay's career Wins have come in his last two starts, Camp Bay's only two starts over this turf course.

Tapsolution took the Show against first level Allowance company over this turf course last time out.  Ego should appreciate the return to turf along with the class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Fairway Magic (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Yes He Can (ML 9-2)

# 3 State Treasurer (ML 10-1)

# 9 Gotta Go (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Secret Biscuit (ML 8-1)

# 4 Sky Ride (ML 6-1)

# 6 Special Reserve (ML 5-1)
# 7 Lullaby Bling (ML 15-1)

# 8 Keesawah (ML 6-1)

# 10 League of Shadows (ML 15-1)

Fairway Magic's two career victories have come in his last races, Fairway Magic's only two starts over this main track.  Yes He Can, like Fairway Magic, is trained by Bret Calhoun.  Yes He Can fits well here on class, and should be forwardly placed early.  State Treasurer, trained by Karl Broberg, could improve with the return to the main track.

Gotta Go is returning from a two month freshening; so this could be just a tune-up start for Gotta Go to prepare him for when he goes back to competing in turf routes.  But Gotta Go ran well in his prior starts over a Fast dirt track; and Gotta Go certainly must be respected here on class.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - Md $7.5k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Taino House (ML 5-1)

B's

# 2 U S Hero (ML 4-1)

# 4 Cascade King (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 El Chocolate (ML 20-1)

# 3 Shades of Glory (ML 15-1)

# 5 Run Budda Run (ML 30-1)

# 6 Oplin (ML 30-1)

# 7 Meaningful (ML 12-1)

# 9 Archrival (ML 6-1)

# 10 Navajo Rug (ML 15-1)
# 11 Pack'n Iron (ML 10-1)

# 12 Wicked Empire (ML 8-1)

Taino House took the Place at this class level at Lone Star Park last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Taino House will be going first off the claim for Trainer Danny Pish, who tends to do well with such.

U S Hero missed graduation by just a neck at this class level two starts back.  Cascade King took the Show at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 5 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,7 with 2,4,5 with 2,3,5,9 with 2,4,8 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,6,8,9 with 2 with 5 with 8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 5 with 8 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 1,4,6,7,8,10 with 8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 5 with 1,3,5,6,7,9,10,11,12 $4.50

Total: $69.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/17/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Girls a Bullet (Final Odds 5.50) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 8 Comic (0.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 9 Tut's Revenge (1.70*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Medal Maker (6.00) - "C" Selection

Long story short, # 10 Fresh One (3.50) was approximately three quarters of a length too slow in getting under the wire in the nightcap; and while that sequence would not have paid as much as I had put in, cashing at a loss would have beat not cashing at all, which was the net result of Saturday's play.

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:

# 5 Starship (2.50*) - $68.00 Finish: 4th

# 8 Drexel (7.50) - $256.65 Finish: 9th

# 9 Three Time Charmer (3.40) - $81.75 Finish: 3rd

# 10 Fresh One (3.50) - $75.90 Finish: 2nd

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 8 / 9 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $119.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo