3/29/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 2 Sweet Silver (Final Odds 1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Gas Total (Brz) (10.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santana Mile - # 3 Blue Tone (4.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Young and Hungry (1.10*) - "A" Selection

Gas Total (Brz) certainly fit the contenders well on class in Race 7, but I didn't use her because I didn't like her career record of just one Win in twenty tries on turf.  Well, Gas Total is now a lifetime two-for-twentyone on turf, having crossed the wire a half length in front of our "A" Selection, # 11 Mangita (5.80); and that half length was the difference today between us cashing our tickets or trashing them.

Oh well. onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  2 / 2 / 3 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $106.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/29/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Taking our play back to SoCal Sunday as The Great Race Place features the twelfth running of The Santana Mile.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Sweet Silver (Morning Line 3-1)
# 3 Dixie Dame (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Powerful Girl (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

# 6 Silent Code (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

Sweet Silver took the Show at this class level last time out.  The concern with Sweet Silver is that she really didn't move forward with the class drop, as she had taken the Show in her previous race against much move expensive while earning a nearly identical Beyer Speed Figure as in her last time out.

Dixie Dame took the Place at this class level last time out.  Powerful Girl earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure four starts back at this class level over this main track at today's distance.  Since that race Powerful Girl's connections have been trying to see if she could win at distances greater than six furlongs without much success.  I suspect Powerful Girl will appreciate the turnback in distance.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Circling (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 11 Mangita (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Nickels Wild (ML 6-1)

C’s

None

# 1 Fresh Feline (NL) is a program scratch, which is why Mangita is running off the Also Eligible List.

Circling (Ire), trained by Neil Drysdale and ridden by Mike Smith, missed winning at this class level by less than a length last time out in his North American debut.  Mangita won at this class level three starts back with today's rider (Aaron Gryder) aboard.

Nickels Wild turned in a solid effort at this class level charging down the hill last time out.  Nickels Wild is trained by Gary Mandella, whose runners don't often move forward second off the layoff; but Nickels Wild's prior form suggests that she much prefers the flat going at today's distance, and therefore is worthy of consideration here.

RACE 8 - The Santana Mile $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Rousing Sermon (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Majestic City (ML 6-1)
# 3 Blue Tone (ML 6-1)
# 4 Appealing Tale (ML 4-1)
# 5 Storm Fighter (ML 12-1)
# 6 Galicado (Arg) (ML 3-1)
# 8 Ankeny Hill (ML 8-1)
# 10 Edge of Reality (ML 12-1)

C’s

None

# 1 Secretsatmidnight (ML 8-1) and # 7 You Know I Know (ML 10-1) have been scratched.

Rousing Sermon, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, is the top career earner in this field with regards to results on a fast dirt track, and therefore gets the nod in this very competitive field.  The B's are everyone else; again, this looks to me to be a very competitive field, and I expect the result will probably come down to whichever runner gets the best trip without burning itself out on the early pace.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf 

A’s

# 10 Young and Hungry (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 2 Tizzing (ML 5-1)
# 4 Foreverly (ML 8-1)
# 7 Top Floor (ML 6-1)
# 8 Best Two Minutes (ML 6-1)
# 9 Perfectly Majestic (ML 6-1)

Young and Hungry has taken the Place charging down the hill at this class level in each of his two prior races.  On form he appears to be a standout; but he looked like a standout last time out as well, so it seems prudent to hedge a bit here.

Tizzing, Foreverly, Top Floor, and Best Two Minutes have all shown ability charging down the hill, and it would not surprise me for anyone of these to make a big move forward today.  Perfectly Majestic, trained by Bob Hess and ridden by Mike Smith, is trying grass for the first time,  If Perfectly Majestic takes to the surface switch, then he could be part of the mix at the wire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 7,11 with 9 with 10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,7 with 3,7,11 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 10 $36.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 7,11 with 9 with 2,4,7,8,9 $10.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EST / 2:57 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/28/15 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview

Saturday The Road to the Kentucky Derby heads east, more east, and even further east, with the running of The Louisiana Derby, The Florida Derby, and The UAE Derby; and this week we're going to let our play travel on that road as well.  Not to all three destinations, mind you; but we are going to chase the East Coast version of The Great White Whale, and take a run at Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Abounding Legacy (Morning Line 7-2)
# 2 River Date (ML 6-1)
# 8 Scorch (ML 4-1)

C's

None

# 6 Summer Dancer (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Abounding Legacy is moving up from state bred competition to open non-claiming maidens; but since the state is Florida, it's really not all that big a jump, and Abounding Legacy's Beyer Speed Figures suggest that he belongs with the contenders here.  River Date has finished in the money in each of his last two races at this class level.  Scorch took the Place last time out at this class level in his debut.

RACE 10 - (F) The Honey Fox (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Sandiva (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 7 Istanford (ML 5-1)

# 8 Coffee Clique (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Sandiva (Ire) enters this contest with a two race winning streak, both over this turf course against stakes competition.  Sandiva's career record of oh-for-five at today's distance is a concern; but as she was able to make the lead well before the wire in each of her last two victories, I don't think the distance will be the determining factor in her result today.

Istanford, five for ten lifetime on the grass including a pair of Graded Stakes wins, should be up on the pace right out of the gate.  If she can get some soft fractions early they may not be able to catch her late.

Coffee Clique makes her 2015 debut, having won the Grade 1 Just A Game at Belmont Park her last time out back in June.  Coffee Clique appears to be the clear class of this field, but the long layoff is a concern, as is the decision by Jockey Javier Castellano (who was on board Coffee Clique in each of her last two wins) to jump off her back to ride Sandiva instead.

RACE 11 - (F) The Orchid (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 White Rose (ML 6-1)

# 4 Kitten's Point (ML 7-2)

# 7 Riposte (GB) (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

White Rose won The Dowager Stakes at Keeneland at today's distance two starts back.  Kitten's Point won The Astra Stakes at Santa Anita at today's distance two starts back.  Riposte (GB), a Graded Stakes winner here in North America, won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot at today's distance back in August 2013.

RACE 12 - (F) The Gulfstream Park Oaks (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Ekati's Phaeton (ML 4-1)

# 6 Eskenformoney (ML 5-2)

# 8 Birdatthewire (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Ekati's Phaeton, winner of the Grade 2 Davona Dale last time out, and the Grade 3 Old Hat three starts back, is a career four-for-five over this main track.  Interesting that Ekati's Phaeton has the highest odds of the trio, as Eskenformoney and Birdatthewire were her beaten foes in the Davona Dale.  Still, all three horse were within a half-length of each other at the wire last time out, so it would not take much for either Eskenformoney or Birdatthewire to turn the tables on Ekati's Phaeton today.

RACE 13 - The Pan American (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Imagining (ML 7-2)

# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 6-5)

C’s

None

I really wanted to make Twilight Eclipse a single on this ticket, as his nemesis Main Sequence is competing on the other side of the planet.  But Imagining has finished in front of Twilight Eclipse in the not-too-distant past, and Trainer Tom Albertrani (Twilight Eclipse's conditioner) has not been having the best of meets; so Imagining goes on the ticket as well.

RACE 14 - The Florida Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Materiality (ML 7-2)

# 9 Upstart (ML 8-5)

C’s

None

As with Twilight Eclipse in the previous race, I was hoping to make Upstart a single on my ticket in this contest, as he was much the best last time out in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth despite being disqualified.  But the far outside post at this trip on this main track is a concern, and the high Beyer Speed Figure Materiality earned in his second career start last time out is just too good to overlook.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,2,8 with 4,7,8 with 2,4,7 with 3,6,8 with 3,8 with 7,9 $64.80

Total: $64.80

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:53 EDT / 12:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/26/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 2 - # 4 High Greeley (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 3 Rosary Man (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 4 Our Little Hen (1.80*) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 2 Astutely (27.00) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 6 Catz On Fire (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Laff Itup Fuzzball (1.40*) - "A" Selection

Our Little Hen in Race 4 was 5-1 on the Morning Line; but it was no real surprise that she was bet down to be the Post Time Favorite, as she was a perfectly logical horse, having been a clear winner in each of her three prior races over the Golden Gate Fields main track.  We should have found the courage (that we stated we lacked in the preview) to drop # 1 Karaoke Cat (2.10) in Race 6 from the ticket; had we done so, we almost definitely would have included Our Little Hen in our play.

But Astutely in Race 5?  Man, the only way we were going to have Astutely on our tickets would have been by hitting the "ALL" button in Race 5.  So while leaving Our Little Hen off our tickets was not an optimal decision, it was not the losing decision; as it just would have meant trashing a ticket with five winners on it, rather than four.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of  4 / 3 / 4 / 2 / 6 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $896.98 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/26/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

Free time coupled with a desire to turn my focus away from more unpleasant matters means we've got ourselves a mid-week special.  There's a carryover jackpot of a little over $139k hanging out in Northern California, so let's take yet another run at The Great White Whale that is the Golden Pick Six.

RACE 2 - Clm $4k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Moody (Morning Line 9-2)

# 4 High Greeley (ML 6-5)

C’s

None

Moody, trying winners for the first time today, could be quickest of the bunch in this field.  High Greeley drops in for the lowest tag of his career for Trainer Steve Sherman.

RACE 3 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Rosary Man (ML 7-5)

# 6 Our Brother B.A. (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Rosary Man, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russel Baze, took the Place at this class level last time out after having taken the Show in his debut.  Our Brother B. A., who took the Show in the Turf Paradise Derby last time out, makes his California debut today.  The bullet work that Brother B. A. posted on the 22nd suggests that he'll take well to the synthetic surface.

RACE 4 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Tiz Kissable (ML 8-5)

# 2 Magnificent Shirl (ML 2-1)

C’s

None

The last time Tiz Kissable competed on a synthetic surface, she took the Show in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes at Delmar.  Magnificent Shirl, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russel Baze, just missed by a nose of winning at this level the last time that she raced on this main track.

RACE 5 - Clm $4k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Mojave Heat (ML 2-1)

# 5 Dane O Mite (ML 6-1)

# 6 Red Globe (ML 5-2)

# 7 The Tom Squad (ML 9-2)

C’s

None

Same conditions as Race 2 above, so think of this as the other division of that event.  Mojave Heat and Red Globe, who finished just a nose apart last time out while taking the Place and Show (respectively) at this class level, look on form as if they should dominate the rest of this field.  The problem is that Mojave Heat and Red Globe have a combined lifetime record of two wins in forty-six starts; numbers that do not inspire a great deal of confidence.  So for that reason we're going to spread a bit here.

Dane O Mite tries winners for the first time; note that Trainer Victor Trujillo wins about a quarter of the time that he sends a last out winner out for a repeat.  The Tom Squad drops in class and stretches out to two turns; I expect both those changes to lead to an improved performance.

RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Karaoke Cat (ML 8-5)

# 6 Catz On Fire (ML 2-1)

C’s

None

The conditions allow entrants to have one (and just one) additional win, provided that win was for $16k or less.  That's what makes this an N2X rather than the more usual N2L, and which is why # 5 Archie Graham (ML 8-1), winner of a $12.5k Claiming contest last time out, is eligible to compete here despite having two career victories.

Karaoke Cat has been unsuccessful a half-dozen times at this class level; but his Beyer Speed Figures are so superior to the rest of the field that keeping him off the ticket requires courage that I do not possess.  Catz On Fire, who came running late to grab the Place at this class level last time out, should appreciate the stretch out to two turns.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $5k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Jill's Joy (ML 9-5)

# 4 Lucky Feelin (ML 6-1)

# 5 Laff Itup Fuzzball (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

The finale is the only one-turn sprint in the sequence.  Toss Jill's Joy's last race, when she disappointed as the Post Time Favorite, as it was over for her before it really began, when she ducked in at the start.  Jill's Joy, Lucky Feelin, and Laff Itup Fuzzball are all dropping to their lowest respective lifetime class level, and all have earned Beyer Speed Figures in their careers that are significantly better than the career bests of the other runners in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 3,4 with 3,6 with 1,2 with 3,5,6,7 with 1,6 with 3,4,5 $38.40

Total: $38.40

Post Time for Race 2 is 4:15 EDT / 1:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/22/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Salsita (Final Odds 41.10) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Dream of Summer - # 5 Wild in the Saddle (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Bird Lover (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 # 3 Gold Locket (7.00) - "C" Selection

Our "A" Selection in Race 6, # 4 Always a Chance (2.90) had the lead as the field crossed the dirt path into the stretch, and was clear with half a furlong to go; but she couldn't hold off Salsita, and lost the lead in the final stride, crossing the wire a half length behind the winner.  And that half length was the difference between us cashing or trashing, as we had the top runner in each of the other three legs.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 5 / 1 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $1,182.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo