11/11/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 3 Durante (Final Odds 11.40) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 5 Atomic Drop (3.40) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - The Let It Ride - # 2 Handy Dandy (2.90) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 3 Bali Dancer (11.20) - "B" Selection

I always consider it good news when I get an "A" Selection home that was not the Post Time Favorite, as I did in the featured 7th race at Del Mar Friday.  I was also correct to play against the co-Morning Line Favorite, # 8 Spycatcher (6.80) in that leg; for while Spycatcher didn't receive the support at the betting windows that I was expecting, he also didn't win, having to settle for the Show behind Handy Dandy.  In addition, I feel that having an 11-1 shot win the nightcap justifies me going "ALL" in that leg.  So there was some good stuff in my Late Pick Four play; just not enough, as Friday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 5 / 2 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $1,904.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/11/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Honoring the sacrifices many have made for our country in the name of freedom and democracy is the very foundation of Veterans Day.” - Charles Rangel

Happy Veterans Day to all in the US, and Remembrance Day to all those living in other parts of the world.  For those in the United States who have served or are serving, if you haven't already, be sure to grab some free grubs, as corporate America expresses its appreciation.  Friday also marks Opening Day at Del Mar for their Fall / Bing Crosby Meeting.  So allow me to turn my sights onto Southern California, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 5 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Pentruchio (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 2 Caisson (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Encode (ML 8-1)

# 3 Durante (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have won fewer than two races in their career; no exceptions.  For some reason, that information is often not including in the running lines of the Past Performances.

As you can see above, I'm changing things up a bit as regards ticket construction.  Specifically, I will no longer be using every runner not on the main ticket as a backup "C" Selection.  From a handicapping perspective, I feel that using "all others" as "C" Selections has led to some lazy analysis.  From a wagering perspective, using fewer "C's" will increase the proportional amount of my bets going towards my best opinions.

The downside of no longer using all others as "C" Selections is that getting three of my "A" Selections home in a Pick Four sequence no longer guarantees that I will collect.  And, as everyone who has spent a significant amount of their lives gambling knows, if it can happen, it will happen; so I anticipate being burnt in this scenario in the future.  But that's the trade off.  As Bobby Fischer used to say, "To get squares you have to give squares."  So good luck to me with this adjustment, and we'll see over time how it works out.

RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Big Talker (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 8 Leyas Candy (ML 5-2)

# 10 Lemon Sushi (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Mr. T's Thirsty (ML 12-1)

# 5 Atomic Drop (ML 3-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 Holiday Aroursal (ML 6-1)

Big Talker took the Place at this class level last time out.  Leyas Candy took the Place at this class level last time out while navigating just one turn.  This will be Leyas Candy first time trying two turn racing.

Lemon Sushi, who graduated last time out, is also routing for the first time.  Mr. T's Thirsty was victorious the only prior time that he tried going eight furlongs on a Fast dirt track.  Atomic Drop has the talent to win at this level, but Atomic Drop appears to settle for too many minor awards.

RACE 7 - The Let It Ride $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Handy Dandy (ML 7-2)

B's

# 7 Time to Party (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Clutch Hitter (ML 6-1)

# 9 Degree of Risk (ML 12-1)

Handy Dandy, trained by Peter Miller, has finished in the Quinella in all four of his career starts on the Del Mar turf.  Time to Party goes first off the claim for Trainer George Papaprodromou, who tends to do well with such.

I decided to fade the co-Morning Line Favorite, Spycatcher.  Yes, Spycatcher ran quite well while taking the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby.  But I think that Spycatcher will be way overused in the sequence Friday, considering that Spycatcher is still a Maiden.  So if Spycatcher wins, I lose.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Supercents (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Worthiness (ML 3-1)

# 2 Sugar Sugar (ML 5-2)

# 3 Bali Dancer (ML 10-1)

# 4 Awsome Donna (ML 20-1)

# 5 Tiger's Wish (ML 15-1)
# 6 La Chiquis (ML 15-1)

# 7 Heaven's Ghost (ML 15-1)

# 8 Vegas Dream (M 6-1)
# 10 Golden Halo (ML 5-1)

C's

None

I'll be honest; I couldn't figure this one out at all.  Putting Supercents (daughter of Goldencents) on top because of the massive class drop Supercents is making.  But, honestly, I could make a case for at least six of the runners here that they should be the "A" Selection.  So it's everyone into the pool in this leg, as I'll be punching the "ALL" button.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 2 with 9 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 8,9,10 with 2,7 with ALL $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 9 with 2 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 4,5 with 2 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 1,9 with 9 $1.00

Total: $65.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:30 EST / 2:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/5/22 Keeneland All BC Pick Six - Results

Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 5 Tuesday (Ire) (Final Odds 4.19) - No Selection

Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 6 Elite Power (5.55) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Mile - # 4 Modern Games (Ire) (1.38*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 1 Malathaat (2.88) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 5 Rebel's Romance (Ire) (5.96) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 4 Flightline (0.44*) - "A" Selection

First things first: Flightline is that good.  Flightline is really that good.  Flightline is not just the horse of the year, he just may be the horse of the past twenty years.  Flightline is that good.

Moving onto other matters, specifically my bankroll, had I stuck with the Pick Four, I would have had it.  For those curious, the main Pick Four ticket would have cost twenty dollars; auxiliary tickets would have cost another eighteen dollars; so total outlay would have been thirty eight dollars.  The Pick Four paid $45.85, a profit of $6.85, or odds of 0.18-1.  So, while I may not have been right about much this weekend, at least I was right about about there being no value in playing the Pick Four.

Moving away from what might have been to what actually was, I had contemplated using # 11 In Italian (GB) (2.96) as a big ticket single in the opening leg.  I suspected, correctly, that In Italian would perform better Saturday than Morning Line (and Post Time) Favorite # 3 Nashwa (GB) (2.59*).  But I won't lie; BC F&M Turf winner Tuesday (Ire) was not on my radar.  Which was a serious whiff on my part.  Tuesday was making the move off the soft turf that she had run her two most recent races upon, onto the firm turf over which she competed Saturday; which is the exact type of move that see many of the European runners make significant improvement.  Something that I'll hopefully remember next year.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who correctly had all six of the All Breeders' Cup Pick Six sequence of  5 / 6 / 4 / 1 / 5 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $2,991.49 for their one dollar wager.  Those who correctly had five of the six winners received a payout of $43.24.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/5/22 Keeneland All BC Pick Six - Preview

"If you quit every time you face a new challenge, giving up can change how you view yourself.  You may begin to think you're weak or that you're a failure because you can't seem to stick with things long enough to see positive results." - Amy Morin

So I looked at my Pick Four plays, and they were chalk, chalk, and more chalk, with enough white dust floating around to have me hallucinating that I had been transported back to the '80s.  So rather than punching tickets with no promise of a decent payout, I figured why not take a shot at a bigger prize.  Yeah, I know that all these Favorites mean little chance of an eye-popping payout even in a Pick Six pool; but I see this as a challenge in and of itself.  And besides, sometimes you just have to take what the game is giving you.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Six at Keeneland.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 In Italian (GB) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Nashwa (ML 5-2)

# 4 Above the Curve (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Sorry, no real analysis today; just some notes.  And the first thing that I'll note is that, because this is a regular Pick Six, it won't be everybody into the pool today, with all non-A's & B's being used as C's.  Only some runners not on the main ticket will be used as backups.  In this leg, where I'm using three short priced entrants, there will be no "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Kimari (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 American Theorem (ML 10-1)
# 5 Aloha West (ML 12-1)

# 6 Elite Power (ML 6-1)

# 9 Jackie's Warrior (ML 4-5)

# 11 Flash of Mischief (ML 30-1)

Yes, I relegated Jackie's Warrior to a "C" Selection.  Yes, I know there's an excellent possibility that I will look very foolish after this race is run.  What can I can?  You only live once.

RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Regal Glory (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Shirl's Speight (ML 30-1)

# 4 Modern Games (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 11 Annapolis (ML 10-1)

# 13 Kinross (GB) (ML 9-2)

C's

# 3 Dreamloper (Ire) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 12 King Cause (ML 30-1) and # 16 Gear Jockey (ML 30-1)

Yeah, I really didn't have a handle on this one.  Fortunately, I'm using enough singles where, from a cost perspective, I can spread a bit here.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Malathaat (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Clairiere (ML 4-1)
# 6 Nest (ML 9-5)
# 7 Search Results (ML 9-2)

Just my opinion, of course, but whichever multi-race wager you're making, there's just no value if you don't single in this event.  So pick one among the well known contenders, and hope for the best.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 War Like Goddess (ML 9-2)

B's

# 5 Rebel's Romance (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 7 Nations Pride (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 11 Mishriff (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Stone Age (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Broome (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Channel Maker (ML 30-1)

Another grass race, another contest that I really don't have a handle on.  I'm beginning to notice a trend.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Flightline (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Taiba (ML 8-1)
# 2 Life Is Good (ML 6-1)

# 6 Epicenter (ML 5-1)

# 7 Olympiad (ML 10-1)
# 8 Rich Strike (ML 20-1)

Why all the "C" Selections?  Because I can still vividly recall the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic, when Shared Belief got mugged leaving the gate, allowing Bayern to go gate to wire to win.  So, you know, just in case.  But realistically, Flightline is much the best here.  In my opinion, of course.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$1.00 P6: 3,4,11 with 2 with 2,4,8,11,13 with 1 with 2,5,7,11 with 4 $60.00

A's with One C

$1.00 P6: 11 with 4,5,6,9,11 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $5.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 3 with 1 with 2 with 4 $1.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 4,6,7 with 2 with 4 $3.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 3,4,6 with 4 $3.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,6,7,8 $5.00

Total: $79.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 1:50 EST / 10:50 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/4/22 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 5 Wonder Wheel (Final Odds 6.50) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 10 Meditate (Ire) (2.04*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Juvenile - # 4 Forte (5.02) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 1 Victoria Road (Ire) (5.57) - "C" Selection

Needless to say, not getting my big ticket single home (# 3 Cave Rock (0.47*)) in the third leg was unfortunate.  However, in the overall scheme of things, not getting Cave Rock home proved to be a net positive; because, had Cave Rock won Race 9, my play would have lost due to my failure to find a spot for Victoria Road on my main ticket.

Big Favorites like Cave Rock don't always win, regardless of which sport we're talking about; such is the way these things go.  But errors such as not using an obvious contender at a good price like Victoria Road are the type of mistake that could leave you wondering if you've lost too much off your fastball to continue playing at the highest level.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Friday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.  I can also remain confident in the quality of my fastball, as the two legs which I missed did see my top "A" Selection run well enough to grab the Place.  And while Cave Rock's defeat was a blessing in disguise, I can hold onto the hope that, good Lord willing, I'll shortly be on the receiving end of a long string of blessings that aren't in disguise.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 10 / 4 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $449.83 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/4/22 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

“The past cannot be changed.  The future is yet in your power.” - Mary Pickford

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.

With that said, I really wanted to go after the all Breeders' Cup Pick Five today.  Unfortunately, I couldn't do anything with the opening leg of that sequence, Race 6, the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.  So it was either go "ALL" in that contest, which would have been a budget buster, or do a stab and pray, where I just randomly toss runners and hope for the best.

So with that leg amputated, leg's get to it, as I a take run at the Late Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 And Tell Me Nolies (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 5 Wonder Wheel (ML 5-1)

# 7 Chop Chop (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Vegas Magic (ML 30-1)

# 2 You're My Girl (ML 10-1)

# 4 Sabra Tuff (ML 30-1)
# 6 Alma Rosa ((ML 30-1)
# 8 Atomically (ML 12-1)
# 9 Grand Love (ML 20-1)
# 10 Chocolate Gelato (ML 7-2)

# 12 Shoplifter (ML 20-1)
# 13 Leave No Trace (ML 20-1)
# 14 Raging Sea (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 11 American Rockette (ML 20-1)

Just a head's up that these notes will be somewhat more truncated than usual.  As you can see, I'm against the Morning Line Favorite Chocolate Gelato.  And Tell Me Nolies will be a good early test to see if the Southern California form will transfer to Kentucky this weekend.  If it does, anything above 4-1 on And Tell Me Nolies will be an absolute gift.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Meditate (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Free Look (ML 5-1)

# 9 Delight (ML 6-1)

# 12 Midnight Mile (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 13 Xigera (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Comanche Country (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Cairo Consort (ML 12-1)

# 3 Last Call (ML 20-1)

# 5 Pleasant Passage (ML 12-1)
# 6 Be Your Best (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Spirit Gal (Fr) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Manhattan Jungle (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 14 Basil Martini (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 15 Bling (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 G Laurie (ML 12-1) and # 16 Alluring Angel (GB) (ML 20-1)

Meditate (Ire) has defeated tougher competition; but Free Look is well versed at the distance.  Delight already has a Win over this course.

Midnight Mile (Ire) loves to win at long odds.  Xigera might run away and hide from the rest of the field.  Hey, these are juvenile fillies on the grass; be prepared to be surprised.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Cave Rock (ML 4-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Hurricane J (ML 30-1)
# 2 Congruent (ML 30-1)
# 4 Forte (ML 4-1)
# 5 Verifying (ML 10-1)
# 6 Blazing Sevens (ML 6-1)

# 7 Wound Up (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lost Ark (ML 20-1)

# 9 Curly Jack (ML 20-1)
# 10 National Treasure (ML 8-1)

As opposed to the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I am very much prepared to not be surprised in this leg.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Silver Knott (GB) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Packs a Wahlop (ML 6-1)

# 8 I'm Very Busy (ML 9-2)

# 14 Gaslight Dancer (ML 30-1)

C's

# 1 Victoria Road (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Curly Larry and Mo (ML 30-1)

# 5 Battle of Normandy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Andthewinneris (ML 5-1)

# 7 Really Good (ML 30-1)
# 9 Nagirroc (ML 20-1)
# 10 Webslinger (ML 20-1)
# 11 Reckoning Force (ML 20-1)
# 12 Mo Stash (ML 20-1)
# 13 Major Dude (ML 10-1)

Gaslight Dancer could shock the world.  More likely, Gaslight Dancer could be leading the field heading into the stretch, only to run out of gas and finish last.  Such is horse racing.  But at big odds, it could be a fun ride.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 3 with 10 with 3 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 4,9,10,12,13 with 3 with 2,4,8,14 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,8,9,10,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 4 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,14,15 with 3 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 3 with 1,3,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 $5.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo