4/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Results

Race 5 - # 10 Golden Dagger (Final Odds 3.96) - "C+" Selection

Race 6 - # 3 Peruvian Lucky (2.59) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - The Serena's Song - # 7 Sunday Shoes (1.17*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Takafumi (Brz) (2.78) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 11 Noble Jon (8.63) - "C" Selection

Not a horrible evening of handicapping.  After all, I did get my big ticket single home in Sunday Shoes.  I also got another of my "A" Selections home, Takafumi (Brz), and Takafumi wasn't the Post Time Favorite.  But those were the only two big ticket winners that I had correct.

Worse was my overall impression of the first two legs.  I had sided with the experienced runners in the opening leg, only to watch debut entrant Golden Dagger get under the wire first.  In the second leg I had faded the experienced runners in favor of the first timers, just to have, yep, Peruvian Lucky win in her sixth try.  I feel justified in recommending the usage of the "ALL" button in the nightcap, as that leg produced the highest paying winner in the sequence; so I'll put that one in the positive column, despite not following that recommendation myself.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  10 / 3 / 7 / 4 / 11  were rewarded with a payout of $2,413.89 for their fifty cent wager.  Those who had four out of the five correct collect $21.87.  Unfortunately, tonight I find myself belonging to neither group.  

May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

“Ends are not bad things, they just mean that something else is about to begin.  And there are many things that don't really end, anyway, they just begin again in a new way.  Ends are not bad and many ends aren't really an ending; some things are never-ending.” - C Joybell C

And so we arrive at the final day of the thoroughbred meeting in Florence, KY.  Being the final day means, of course, that everything must go; including the Jackpot Pick Six pool, which has a carryover entering Saturday of $28,580.  But if you looked at the title of this post, you already know that I'll be passing on the Pick Six pool in favor of The Late Pick Five, which has its own carryover of $66,517, thanks to Friday's Early Pick Five going unhit.  So with that as intro let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k - Six and one Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 4 Heart Spin (Morning Line 7-2); # 5 Mo Betty (ML 8-1); # 6 It Factor (ML 6-1); and # 14 Shemademeblush (ML 7-2)

To me, this race is a contest between the first time starters and the experienced runners.  In my humble opinion, if, after removing the scratches, you divide the runners into those two categories, neither grouping has a standout among them.  So this, in my mind, becomes a spread leg, with the width of the spread dependent on the size of your bankroll (as well as how deep you plan on spreading in subsequent legs).

For me, I sided with the experienced runners, giving preference to those who have already had one or more races on my main ticket.  The lone exception was # 1 Red Hot Jeanie (ML 12-1).  I found Red Hot Jeanie's work of March 21 over this track too good to ignore; especially at the Morning Line price.  I therefore slotted Red Hot Jeanie in as a "B+" Selection.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six and one Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Stirdatpot (ML 4-1)

In this leg I decided to fade the experienced entrants.  I'm only going three deep here, and all three are debut runners: # 4 Run for Reagan (ML 10-1); # 8 Midnight Channel (ML 8-1); and # 9 Man With the Moves (ML 12-1).  Quite frankly, my concern here is not if one of the experienced runners should suddenly take a big step forward; but rather that none of the first time trio that I've placed on my main ticket will fire.  In my opinion, talent is definitely on the side of the debut starters; now it's just a matter of who will run to their best ability.  If you're unsure, then by all means sprinkle in the more favored in the field as your bankroll allows.  But for me, as I have my trio, and here's where I make my stand.

RACE 7 - (F) The Serena's Song $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 1 Bulsara (ML 5-1) and # 4 Safeen (ML 15-1)

Now we arrive at the final Listed Stakes of the meeting, an event carded for three year old fillies.  I spent a long, long time studying this race, looking for any excuse to not use the Wesley Ward trained # 7 Sunday Shoes (ML 7-2) as a big ticket single.  It was a question of whether or not to include one or both of # 9 Jill Jitterbug (ML 10-1) and # 12 B G Warrior (ML 6-1).  Ultimately I decided that Ward's filly is simply too good to fade, at least with any significant dollar amount, as would be the case by doubling or trebling the cost of my main ticket.  So it's Sunday Shoes solo in this leg, with my main concern being that I make it out of the previous leg so that my decision here matters.

RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 7 Choctaw Bingo (ML 9-2); # 8 Lord Revelstoke (ML 30-1); and # 11 Markitoff (ML 5-1)

Another spread leg for me, as I go four deep on the main ticket in this open claimer.  The fault lies with my mistrust of # 4 Takafumi (Brz) (ML 7-2).  Since leaving the barn of Trainer Michael Maker, Takafumi has shown the ability to win at long odds and to disappoint at a short price.  Those with more faith than me in Takafumi can save themselves considerable funds by chopping some of the excess off my main ticket; but, for me, I'm going to use all I can afford here, even at the risk of my play losing some overall value.

RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Got the Bob (ML 15-1); # 8 Holy Cross (ML 15-1); and # 13 Beocca (ML 8-1)

Whenever I see an Non-Winners of Two Lifetime Claiming race, my hand almost instinctively goes straight to the "ALL" button.  But I'm, relatively speaking, going to live on the edge here, going just three deep on my main ticket.  My price horse among the three is # 1 Sprinklehead (ML 12-1); my "what were you thinking when you put this horse in your play" horse.  Sprinklehead is one for eighteen lifetime, and oh-for-nine over this track.  Not what you typically want from one of your "B" Selections.  But Sprinklehead has been competing against much more expensive stock; even (on at least one occasion) racing above his conditions.  So if Sprinklehead can wake up with the class drop, he just might put a very nice finishing touch on this meeting.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FIVE	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	9,	1,13		2,3,8,10,11	7,12
LEG 2	8,		4,9	2,3,7	1,6
LEG 3	7,			9,12	3,6,11
LEG 4	4,		1,3,6		10,12,13
LEG 5	10,	3,	1	6,9	2,4,7,11,12,14

And here, using a variation of the Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 4,8,9 with 7 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,10 $54.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 2,3,8,10,11 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $5.00

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 2,3,7 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $9.00

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 9,12 with 4 with 3,10 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 $3.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 7,12 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 9 with 1,6 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 3,6,11 with 4 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 10,12,13 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 2,4,7,11,12,14 $3.00

Total: $92.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EDT / 4:55 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/30/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 12 Chantry Flats (Final Odds 6.17) - "B+" Selection

Race 6 - # 1 Cami Cat (2.80) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 12 Atlantic Strike (6.41) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - DEAD HEAT - # 1 Diamond City (4.68) - "A" Selection / # 8 Legal Attack (GB) (12.51) - No Selection

Getting two "A" Selections home, neither being the Post Time Favorite, is a pretty good night.  Toss a "B+" Selection into the mix, also not a Favorite, and you can dream sweeet dreams.  Usually.  But not having that fourth winner in the sequence in a prime spot means that I contribute instead of collect.  Make Atlantic Strike a "C+" instead of a "C"; or make Chantry Flats an "A" instead of a "B+" and the story changes.  Of course, make the queen a dude and, well, you know how that story goes.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  12 / 1 / 12 / 1,8  were rewarded with a payout of $780.53 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/30/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.” -  Neil Gaiman

Believe it or not, this is the last Thursday card of this Turfway Park meeting, with the final race day being Saturday, April 1.  Of course, that means that all pools must payout on Saturday, April 1, including the Jackpot Pick Six.  Currently the Pick Six carryover is at approximately $3.6k, as it was scooped Friday to the tune of $111,723.83.  Typically the Pick Six pool at Turfway Park pulls in between $30k-$40k per card; so it's possible that I may be chasing that carryover Saturday.  However, it's also possible that the Late Pick Five Saturday will have an even more attractive carryover.  So we'll see.

But that's enough looking ahead.  Turning back to tonight, we have the usual menu of full and competitive fields that we've become accustomed to in Florence, KY.  So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - OC 40k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 2 California Angel (Morning Line 9-2); # 6 Johnny's Fireball (ML 20-1); and # 9 Nautilus (Brz) (ML 10-1)

For those who note such things, # 3 Be Here (ML 12-1) and # 13 Beaver Hat (ML 20-1) are the only two entrants in this field to be competing with the $40k price tag on their head.

I spent a significant amount of time debating what to do with California Angel, the daughter of California Chrome that would be trying synthetic for the first time while competing against the boys.  I was going back and forth between a runner that was clearly the best closer in the field; but who had a form that was screaming "Needs race!"  Of course, now that California Angel has been scratched, all that deliberation was just time wasted.  Which is a moral of something, I'm sure; though I'm not sure what.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Honeytown (ML 20-1)

Funny how things can change over a (relatively) brief period of time.  In the early weeks of this meeting, I almost certainly would have made a horse similar to # 2 Beautiful Temple (ML 5-2), trained by Jonathan Wong, a main ticket single.  But, for whatever reason, Wong's trainees at Turfway Park have grown cold over the past month or two.  I finally decided to leave Beautiful Temple off the main ticket, slotting her in as a "C+" Selection.  If Beautiful Temple beats me, she beats me; and I'll just be happy for Jonathan Wong.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 4 Mean Sue (ML 8-1) and # 11 Chi Town Heat (ML 15-1)

This leg would have been a lot easier if I knew for certain how # 13 Send for Me (ML 5-2) was going to handle the synthetic.  Send for Me had a nice work over the Gulfstream Park all-weather track earlier this month; and Send for Me was sired by Into Mischief.  Both of those things speak well to how Send for Me will handle the Turfway Park track surface.  But, I leaned on being safe rather than sorry; so while Send for Me is my "A" Selection, I also included # 8 Hideki (ML 4-1) on the main ticket; just in case.

RACE 8 - OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Ready Soul (ML 4-1); # 13 Bullbriar (ML 6-1); and # 14 Towing (ML 3-1)

I'm reasonably confident that I got this leg right, finding the right blend of coverage and value.  That is, I'm reasonably confident that I have the correct three runners on my main ticket.  Do I have them in the correct order?  That, I'm not so confident about.  But we'll see.

Alright; here are all my Selections in colorful chart form:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	11,	12,	3,7,14	4,8	10,13
LEG 2	1,		6	2	3,11
LEG 3	13,		8	5,7,9,14	1,2,12
LEG 4	1,	4,	9	2	3

And, with a tip of the cap to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 1 with 13 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 13 with 1,4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7,11,12,14 with 1,6 with 8,13 with 1,4,9 $30.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 1 with 13 with 1,4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 2 with 13 with 1,4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 5,7,9,14 with 1,4 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 13 with 2 $1.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 10,13 with 1 with 13 with 1 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 3,11 with 13 with 1 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1 with 1,2,12 with 1 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1 with 13 with 3 $0.50

Total: $52.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/25/23 Bayou Bluegrass Five - Results

FG Race 9 - The New Orleans Classic - # 3 West Will Power (Final Odds 2.60) - "C+" Selection

TP Race 11 - The Bourbonette Oaks - # 5 Botanical (1.03*) - "A" Selection

FG Race 11 - The Fair Grounds Oaks - # 1 Southlawn (7.70) - "C" Selection

TP Race 12 - The Jeff Ruby Steaks - # 10 Two Phil's (2.82) - "B" Selection

FG Race 12 - The Louisiana Derby - # 6 Kingsbarns (4.50) - "C+" Selection

In retrospect, it's possible that the decision to make # 5 Rattle N Roll (11.50) a single in the New Orleans Classic may have been influenced a bit more by greed than analysis.  After all, getting odds greater than 10-1 on a Grade 1 winner is a temptation that is difficult to resist; especially when you're convinced that the odds-on Favorite is vulnerable; a conviction which proved correct, as # 2 Art Collector (0.80*) was a well beaten second, taking the Place more than four lengths in back of the winner.  Still, perhaps a place should have been found for West Will Power on the main ticket.

My belief that those with the budget to do so would do well to go "ALL" in the Fair Grounds Oaks was justified when Southlawn garnered the victory in a field of five where all but one had lower odds than she.  Still, even if I could go back in time and include West Will Power on the main ticket in the opening leg, and buy the third leg of the sequence, I'm not all that confident that I would have foreseen the lightly raced Kingsbarns walking the dog on the front end (24.71 / 49.60) to easily win the Louisiana Derby.  So I'm going to mark this sequence down as one that just wasn't meant to be.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  3 / 5 / 1 / 10 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $1,777.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/25/23 Bayou Bluegrass Five - Preview

"I tell the kids, somebody’s gotta win, somebody’s gotta lose.  Just don’t fight about it.  Just try to get better." - Yogi Berra

Saturday brings us a multi-track promotional wager, with two CDI properties, Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, joining forces with a Pick Five featuring a pair of Kentucky Derby preps.  So let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Bayou Bluegrass 5 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park.

LEG 1 - Race 9 @ FG - The New Orleans Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 4 Trafalgar (ML 30-1)

I'm fading the Morning Line Favorite in this contest, # 2 Art Collector (Morning Line 8-5), keeping him off my main ticket and slotting him in as a C+ Selection.  I'm also fading the second choice on the Morning Line, # 3 West Will Power (ML 2-1), letting him join Art Collector in the C+ ranks.

Look, Art Collector and West Will Power are the two top horses in this field; and if you're going by pure probability, the winner of this race being either Art Collector or West Will Power is certainly well above 50%, most likely above 75%.  But I would guess that at least 95% of the tickets in this pool will have either Art Collector or West Will Power on it.  Getting home a winner in this leg that is neither Art Collector nor West Will Power would be huge.  Unlikely, but huge.

So, heeding to the motto, "Go big or go home" I'm going to single here, with a horse that is neither Art Collector nor West Will Power.  Instead, my big ticket single in this opening leg is # 5 Rattle N Roll (ML 10-1).  At his best, I believe that Rattle N Roll can compete with the top two contenders here.  I also think Rattle N Roll will be helped by the pace shape in this contest.  Finally, I think, based off his works over this track earlier this month, that Rattle N Roll is ready to, well, roll.

So I'm swinging for the fences in my first at bat of the day, with Rattle N Roll being my big ticket single in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic.

LEG 2 - Race 11 @ TP - (F) The Bourbonette Oaks $300k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 3 Olympic Prank (ML 20-1)

No real surprises here as I go three deep with the expectation that this event will be formful.  The only real question I had here was regarding # 2 Bolivie (Ire) (ML 5-1), making her North American debut.  While I have Bolivie on my main ticket (as a B Selection), I may later regret not slotting her higher on the chart.  We'll see.

LEG 3 - Race 11 @ FG - (F) The Fair Grounds Oaks (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Unfortunately, this event could only draw a field of five.  Those with a sizeable bankroll will no doubt simply buy this race.  As for me, I'm going to single here; but not with the Morning Line Favorite, # 3 Pretty Mischievous (ML 8-5).  Instead, I'm going with the runner who took the Show behind Pretty Mischievous last time out in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra, # 5 Hoosier Philly (ML 2-1).  If Hoosier Philly returns to her 2022 form than there's little doubt in my mind that she can defeat this field.

LEG 4 - Race 12 @ TP - The Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 2 Scoobie Quando (ML 15-1) and # 3 Event Detail (ML 15-1)

This was my spread leg, as I'm using a half dozen runners in this contest on my main ticket.  The quandary is that the two lowest prices on the Morning Line, # 1 Major Dude (ML 5-2) and # 10 Two Phil's (ML 7-2) will both be competing on a synthetic surface for the first time in their respective careers.  Because of that, I thought it best to go wide in this leg.

LEG 5 - Race 12 @ FG - The Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

No surprise in my top choice, as # 2 Instant Coffee (ML 2-1) is my "A" Selection here.  Perhaps some surprise that I didn't single Instant Coffee in this leg.  Almost certainly some raised eyebrows (at least) regarding the two runners that I have joining Instant Coffee on my main ticket: # 11 Jace's Road (ML 12-1) and # 9 Tapit's Conquest (10-1).

Jace's Road's form looks much better after you toss the two off-track races.  Tapit's Conquest might benefit by covering the additional real estate.  And having Instant Coffee, Jace's Road, and Tapit's Conquest on my main ticket means that I have all three Brad Cox trainees covered.

OK, that's the analysis.  Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections for each leg:

PICK FIVE	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	5,			2,3	6,7
LEG 2	5,	11,	2	4,9	8
LEG 3	5,			3	1,2,4
LEG 4	8,	11,	1,4,7,10		5,12
LEG 5	2,	11,	9	4,6	3,5

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 5 with 2,5,11 with 5 with 1,4,7,8,10,11 with 2,9,11 $27.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 2,3 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $8.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 4,9 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 3 with 8,11 with 2,11 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 4,6 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 8 with 5 with 8 with 2 $0.50

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 1,2,4 with 8 with 2 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 5,12 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 3,5 $1.00

Total: $61.00

Post Time for Race 9 @ FG is 5:04 EDT / 2:04 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo