It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday. So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN. These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.
As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories. So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse. Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 12 Arizona (Ire) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Peace Achieved (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Our Country (ML 15-1)
# 2 Structor (ML 5-1)
# 4 Decorated Invader (ML 4-1)
# 6 Graceful Kitten (ML 15-1)
# 7 Andesite (ML 12-1)
# 8 Billy Batts (ML 20-1)
# 9 Gear Jockey (ML 20-1)
# 10 War Beast (ML 20-1)
# 11 Proven Strategies (ML 30-1)
# 13 Fort Myers (ML 12-1)
# 14 Hit the Road (ML 10-1)
# 15 Deviant (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 5 Vitalogy (GB) (ML 10-1)
Arizona (Ire) certainly looks to be the most talented here by a substantial amount, and probably should be a single on the main ticket. But I feel that there are a few question marks regarding Arizona (chief among them that he has never gone this distance before); and I'm not really going too deep in any of the other legs; so I decided to include the Mark Casse trained Peace Achieved on the main ticket with Arizona.
Peace Achieved enters this contest having won each of his last three races; and in each of those three victories Peace Achieved paid double digits to Win. In fact, Peace Achieved has never left the gate at odds of less than 5-1; and that's extremely unlikely to change today. So make Arizona the "A"; Peace Achieved the "B"; with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Bast (ML 7-2)
B's
# 7 Wicked Whisper (ML 7-2)
# 9 Comical (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Donna Veloce (ML 3-1)
# 2 Two Sixty (ML 15-1)
# 3 Perfect Alibi (ML 10-1)
# 4 British Idiom (ML 7-2)
# 5 Lazy Daisy (ML 12-1)
# 8 K P Dreamin (ML 20-1)
Bast and Comical filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Chandelier over this main track at today's distance last time out. Wicked Whisper, dominate in both of her two prior career starts, could be quickest here; but it's fair to wonder how Wicked Whisper will fare her first time around two turns. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Shadn (Ire) (ML 10-1)
B's
# 1 Living In The Past (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Daahyeh (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 9 Albigna (Ire) (ML 9-2)
# 12 Sweet Melania (ML 5-1)
C's
# 2 Croughavouke (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Abscond (ML 15-1)
# 6 Unforgettable (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Crystalle (ML 8-1)
# 8 Tango (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 10 Fair Maiden (ML 12-1)
# 11 Sharing (ML 12-1)
# 13 Selflessly (ML 8-1)
# 14 Etoile (ML 12-1)
Shadn (Ire) and Daahyeh (GB) look classiest here, and probably should be joint "A" Selections; but ultimately I landed on Shadn because I think Shadn will do better with the increase in real estate.
Living In The Past (Ire) can be forgiven that last outing. Albigna (Ire) is a proven winner at today's distance. Sweet Melania looks best among the North American breds, as the cutback in distance should give Sweet Melania the edge over Crystalle. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Eight Rings (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Dennis' Moment (ML 2-1)
C's
# 2 Wrecking Crew (ML 20-1)
# 3 Shoplifted (ML 20-1)
# 4 Storm the Court (ML 20-1)
# 5 Scabbard (ML 8-1)
# 7 Anneau d'Or (ML 15-1)
# 8 Full Flat (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Maxfield (ML 3-1)
East Coast vs West Coast! And in this contest, I'm going West Coast. I think Eight Rings with a Win over this main track at today's distance holds the edge over Dennis' Moment; though there was absolutely nothing wrong with Dennis' Moment's work here last week. Maybe this is another race where I should have gone with joint "A" Selections; but I think I've got this one right. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 12 with 6 with 3 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,12 with 6,7,9 with 1,3,5,9,12 with 1,6 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,13,14,15 with 6 with 3 with 6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1,2,3,4,5,8 with 3 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 6 with 2,4,6,7,8,10,11,13,14 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 12 with 6 with 3 with 2,3,4,5,7,8 $3.00
Total: $47.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 4:52 EDT / 1:52 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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