Saturday, November 2, 2019

11/2/19 Santa Anita All BC Earlier Pick Four - Preview

As was the case last year in Kentucky, there are four, yes four, Pick Four plays being offered at Santa Anita Park Saturday for Day 2 of the 2019 Breeders' Cup.  This preview is for for the second of the four; the one beginning with Race 4, the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.  Hopefully very soon I'll be posting a preview for the Pick 4 which culminates with the Breeders' Cup Classic.  So if all that is clear then let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Covfefe (Morning Line 2-1)
# 4 Come Dancing (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Danuska's My Girl (ML 20-1)
# 3 Heavenhasmynikki (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lady Ninja (ML 10-1)
# 6 Bellafina (ML 6-1)
# 7 Selcourt (ML 10-1)
# 8 Dawn the Destroyer (ML 12-1)
# 9 Spiced Perfection (ML 4-1)

Covfefe and Come Dancing look to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field; and there doesn't seem to be much point in trying to choose between the two.  So make Covfefe and Come Dancing joint "A" Selections, with all others being used as backup "C's".

RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Pure Sensation (ML 5-1)

B's

# 1 Totally Boss (ML 5-1)
# 3 Imprimis (ML 8-1)
# 4 Shekky Shebaz (ML 12-1)
# 5 Stubbins (ML 12-1)
# 6 Stormy Liberal (ML 8-1)
# 7 Leinster (ML 8-1)
# 8 Legends of War (ML 20-1)
# 9 Final Frontier (ML 6-1)
# 10 Eddie Haskell (ML 9-2)
# 11 Om (ML 15-1)
# 12 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Girls Know Best (ML 20-1) and # 14 Double Touch (GB) (ML 30-1)

You know, I spent more time on this race than I spent on the other three legs of this sequence combined; and at some point, you just have to admit that you don't have a handle on the race.  I don't have a handle on this race.  Maybe, maybe, I can eliminate three or four runners from this field; but why?  So everybody into the pool, as I go "ALL" in for this event.

RACE 6 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Spun to Run (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Giant Expectations (ML 12-1)
# 2 Improbable  (ML 5-2)
# 5 Omaha Beach (ML 8-5)
# 9 Diamond Oops (ML 15-1)

C's

# 4 Mr. Money (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ambassadorial (ML 30-1)
# 7 Coal Front (ML 6-1)
# 8 Blue Chipper (ML 20-1)
# 10 Snapper Sinclair (ML 30-1)

Spun to Run has raced four times this year at a distance of a mile or greater but less than a mile and an eighth; and Spun to Run has been victorious each of those four times.  Giant Expectations is seems to settle for too many minor awards; but maybe the rail draw will help Giant Expectations stay focused.

Improbable should improve with the cutback in distance.  Omaha Beach competing here is like a prize fighter competing at a catch weight; he can win longer or shorter, so no reason why he can't win here.

As well as he ran last time out, Diamond Oops should improve with the return to the main track.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 8-5)

B's

# 7 Vasilika (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Iridessa (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Billesdon Brook (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Mirth (ML 20-1)# 8 Castle Lady (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 9 Villa Marina (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 10 Mrs. Sippy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Just Wonderful (ML 20-1)
# 12 Fanny Logan (Ire) (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 3 Fleeting (Ire) (ML 6-1) and # 6 Thais (Fr) (ML 30-1)

Sistercharlie (Ire) probably should be a single here, cutting the cost of the main ticket in half.  But Vasilika has just been so dominant over this turf course, winning eleven of her twelve career starts here, that I just couldn't bring myself to leave her off the main ticket.  So two deep it is, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,4 with 2 with 3 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4 with ALL with 1,2,3,5,9 with 2,7 $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,7,8,9 with 2 with 3 with 2 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 2 with 4,6,7,8,10 with 2 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 2 with 3 with 1,4,5,8,9,10,11,12 $8.00

Total: $138.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 2:55 EDT / 11:55 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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