8/1/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” - Thomas Edison

The Grade 1 Bing Crosby is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar; a contest which required reassessment Friday with the announcement by Trainer Bob Baffert that he was withdrawing Morning Line Favorite McKinzie, with the intent of re-entering McKinzie in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien four weeks hence.  So with that as background let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - (F) [S] The CTBA $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Righteously (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 1 Big Andy (ML 5-1)
# 2 Governor Goteven (ML 5-1)
# 3 Reign of Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Jasmine Chieftain (ML 15-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 6 Love Wins (ML 4-1) and # 7 I'm So Anna (ML 8-5)

Like the Grade 1 Bing Crosby later on the card, this event, a stakes for two year old California bred fillies (full name California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Stakes), also sees the scratch of its Morning Line Favorite; and, you know, I'm just not going to mess with it.  Everybody into the pool!  Righteously, as the only entrant with a win over this main track, is my top pick; with all others also being given a spot on the main ticket.  So no matter what happens, the big ticket plays going into the second leg.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Tagline (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Little Rachel (ML 5-1)
# 2 Naughty Evelyn (ML 6-1)
# 3 I Give Up (ML 12-1)
# 4 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 6 Better With Age (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lookin So Lucky (ML 20-1)
# 8 Del Mar Drama (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wild Arch (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 10 Star of Africa (ML 8-1); # 11 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 5-1); # 12 Rowangoeshollywood (ML 8-1); # 13 M Fast (ML 20-1); and # 14 Constantia (ML 6-1)

In my opinion, the top contenders for this contest were to be found among the Also Eligibles.  But with the elimination of those runners, Tagline is a clear standout here.  Mind you, that doesn't guarantee victory; but I see no point in trying to beat Tagline.  So one leg after going ALL I'm going solo, with Tagline alone on the main ticket, and all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - The Bing Crosby (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 9 Collusion Illusion (ML 9-2)

B's

# 2 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)
# 3 Desert Law (ML 5-1)
# 6 Fashionably Fast (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Lexitonian (ML 6-1)
# 7 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 8-1)
# 8 Wildman Jack (ML 6-1)
# 10 Heartwood (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 McKinzie (ML 2-1) and # 5 P R Radio Star (ML 8-1)

As mentioned in the intro, Trainer Bob Baffet's decision to scratch McKinzie and give him another month's rest changes the whole complexion of this contest.  Collusion Illusion, two-for-two lifetime over this track, and undefeated in one-turn races, projects to get a nice outside stalking trip.

Anyportinastorm looks to be the speed of the speed here, and could prove to be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  Desert Law missed by just half a length of winning last year's running of this event.  Fashionably Fast was runner-up to McKenzie last time out in the Grade 2 Triple Bend; a result which ended a six race winning streak for the Dean Pederson trained Fashionably Fast.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 On Mars (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Ride Sally Ride (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bella Chica (ML 7-2)
# 6 Get'em Tiger (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Cheerful Charm (ML 5-1)
# 2 Nina En Fuego (ML 6-1)
# 4 Starship Sky (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kiss of Congrats (ML 12-1)
# 8 Spanish Channel (ML 20-1)
# 10 Shez Our Arch (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 La Gata Elegante (ML 6-1)

On Mars has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last two starts; not a trend that you like to see.  But On Mars did finish in the Trifecta in each of those two contests, and looks to once again be the one beat.

Ride Sally Ride has proven to be competitive at this class level, and Ride Sally Ride acquitted herself well in her one prior turf try around two turns.  Bella Chica could improve in her first try around two turns.  Bella Chica is also putting on the blinkers for the first time; Trainer Mike Puype tends to do well with that particular move.

Get'em Tiger might improve trying the turf for the first time.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 5 with 2,3,6,9 with 3,5,6,9 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 9 with 9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,7,8,10 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 9 with 1,2,4,7,8,10 $3.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo