Saturday, August 15, 2020

8/15/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"Don't worry about failures, worry about the chances you miss when you don't even try." - Jack Canfield

The Solana Beach, a turf contest for California bred fillies and mares, is Saturday's featured race at Del Mar.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Illumination (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 1 Kalypso (ML 6-1)
# 2 Park Avenue (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mandragora Seeker (ML 10-1)

C's

# 3 Isn't She Lovely (ML 4-1)
# 5 Forest Caraway (ML 12-1)
# 6 Derby Quest (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shvere Arbeter (ML 10-1)

# 8 I'm All the Jedi (ML 20-1)

These are juveniles, with Mandragora Seeker the only experienced runner in the field.  Illumination and Kalypso are both trained by Bob Baffert, whose debut runners tend to be successful.  Park Avenue is trained by John Sadler, who often does well with his first time starters.

As mentioned above, Mandragora Seeker is the only runner here with a race under her belt; and, quite frankly, Mandragora Seeker didn't show much in her debut last time out.  But Mandragora Seeker is trained by Luis Mendez, whose runners tend to improve significantly in their second career tries.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Solana Beach $125k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Cordiality (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Mucho Unusual (ML 8-5)

C's

# 1 Sedamar (ML 5-1)
# 5 Pulpit Rider (ML 6-1)
# 7 Kitty Boom Boom (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 3 Big Sweep (ML 5-1) and # 6 Smiling Shirlee (ML 12-1)

Cordiality, winner of this event a couple of years ago, appears to be back in top form.  Mucho Unusual is getting significant class relief here.  Mucho Unusual is also getting the services of Jockey Flavien Prat, who was victorious the last time that he rode Mucho Unusual.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - Alw 50000s N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Pyron (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Zimba Warrior (ML 3-1)
# 3 It's Tiz Time (ML 5-2)
# 5 Tobacco Road (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Press Briefing (ML 15-1)
# 4 Cause and Effect (ML 20-1)
# 7 Emerald Magic (ML 12-1)
# 8 Little Sydney (ML 6-1)
# 9 Luck's Royal Flush (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won three races in their career.  Each of these entrants has two career victories, with the  exception of the Doug O'Neill trained Press Briefing, who has only visited the Winner's Circle once.

Pyron ships in from Kentucky, going first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt.  The competition for Pyron in this field appears somewhat lighter than that which he has been facing of late.

Zimba Warrior ran well while winning over this main track last time out, albeit for different connections.  It's Tiz Time fits well here with the contenders, and could be the one running best late.

Tobacco Road ran well in his first try over this main track last time out, which was also Tobacco Road's first start for Trainer Kristin Mulhall, who has been having a fine 2020 campaign.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Contagion (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 6-1)
# 5 The Hunted (ML 3-1)
# 6 Mithqaal (ML 6-1)
# 7 Acker (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Ocean Fury (ML 12-1)
# 3 Pubilius Syrus (ML 12-1)
# 4 Dynamite Ride (ML 8-1)
# 8 Move Over (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Never Easy (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 10 Harvest a Storm (ML 20-1) along with all three Also Eligibles: # 11 East Rand (ML 12-1); # 12 Avalanche (ML 4-1); and # 13 Engram (ML 30-1)

This contest is for runners three year olds and upward that have not won a race in 2020; no exclusions (in other words, "other than etc. etc.").

Contagion has finished in the Exacta in both of his career starts over this turf course, and Contagion is the only runner in this field to have finished in the Trifecta last time out.  Mr. Roary looks to be the most consistent entrant in this field, and Mr. Roary could be the one running best late.

The Hunted can be expected to improve with the added distance.  Mithqaal, shipping in from upstate for Trainer Jonathan Wong, has run well in the past over this turf course.  Acker could move up with the return to grass.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 6 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,9 with 2,4 with 1,3,5,6 with 1,4,5,6,7 $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 6 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,7 with 6 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 2,4,7,8,9 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2 with 6 with 2,3,8,9 $2.00

Total: $89.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:42 EDT / 5:42 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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