"Do you know what my favorite part of the game is? The opportunity to play.” - Mike Singletary
The Del Mar card contains a pair of Graded Stakes; one of which, the Grade 2 Best Pal, falls outside of this preview, occupying as it does Race 6 on the program. But the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, is a prominent part of the Late Pick Four, slotted into a rather interesting sequence where a Graded Stakes is joined by three maiden races. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Flame (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 5 Crash Corrigan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tacoflavoredkisses (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Alexander's Dream (ML 4-1)
# 6 Suzie Qzz Brother (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charge Cash (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 1 Ben's a Goalie (ML 12-1) and # 3 Lino's Back N Town (ML 6-1)
These are juveniles, with only one experienced runner, Tacoflavoredkisses, in the field. I'm making Big Flame my top selection because progeny of his sire, Mr. Big, have done well in their debuts.
Ben's a Goalie is trained by Quinn Howey, who tends to do well with first time starters. Crash Corrigan is a full brother to George Herman Ruth, who graduated at Santa Anita earlier this year.
As mentioned above, Tacoflavoredkisses is the only experienced entrant in this field. While Tacoflavoredkisses didn't show much in his debut last time out, despite being the Post Time Favorite, Trainer Simon Callaghan tends to do well with his runners who are making their second career start. Tacoflavoredkisses will also be adding blinkers for the first time, another angle with which Callaghan tends to be successful. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Bodhicitta (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 7 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Summering (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tonahuta (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harmless (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Jolie Olimpica (Brz) (ML 5-2)
Virtually all the analysis that I've seen online regarding this contest has deemed it, with the scratch of Jolie Olimpica, a one-sided affair in which Beau Recall (Ire) should romp. Needless to say, I have a differing opinion.
Keeper Ofthe Stars and Bodhicitta (GB) filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Gamely back in May. Keeper Ofthe Stars looked like a very tired horse last time out in the Grade 3 Wilshire; hopefully the freshening will allow Keeper Ofthe Stars to return to form.
Lady Prancealot (Ire) was well beaten by Keeper Ofthe Stars in each of her last two outings. But Lady Prancealot (Ire) has run well in the past at Del Mar; so perhaps a change of scenery will allow her to move up today.
There's a non-zero chance that, sometime later this evening, I will be regretting not making Beau Recall, the winner of last year's running of this event, a big ticket single; let alone not making her my top pick. But I just don't think that the Brad Cox trained Beau Recall is in top form at this time. Granted, even when not in her best form, Beau Recall is still a great horse; but it's my opinion that, today, there are others in this field that have a legitimate shot at defeating her, and at more attractive prices. So that's how I'll be playing this leg, with all others in the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Spielberg (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Superman Shaq (ML 7-2)
# 8 Dr. Schivel (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Honorary Degree (ML 15-1)
# 2 Flactem Legacy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Noble Reflection (ML 3-1)
# 5 Waspirant (ML 8-1)
# 7 Feel the Berning (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Drivehappy (ML 12-1)
More juveniles. Spielberg has been working well for his debut, as you would expect from a Bob Baffert trained runner. First time starter Superman Shaq, trained by Peter Miller, is out of Drumette, who also foaled Graded Stakes winners Mr. Monomoy and Monomoy Girl.
Dr. Schivel, the only experienced runner in this field, has finished in the Trifecta in both of his career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Devil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Noble Hearted (ML 6-1)
# 7 Dolci (ML 30-1)
# 9 Wind and Hope (ML 8-1)
# 10 Nurse Goodbody (ML 9-2)
# 11 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Miss Addie Pray (ML 20-1)
# 2 Lemon Drop Tini (ML 8-1)
# 3 Bristol Bayou (ML 12-1)
# 4 Frose (ML 20-1)
# 8 Viazar (ML 12-1)
# 12 Surround (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Sweet Devil ran well last time out over this turf course, and Sweet Devil could move up with the added real estate. Noble Hearted took the Show at this class level two starts back. Dolci is another that could move up with the increase in distance; likewise Wind and Hope.
Nurse Goodbody disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out in a race that should be tossed from consideration. Nurse Goodbody took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Ya Beauty (GB), making her North American debut today, took the Place last time out in her second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis; and, boy, is this play well over my usual budget. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2,4,6,7 with 4,8,9 with 5,6,7,9,10,11 $108.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6,8 with 6 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 6 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 9 with 1,2,3,4,8,12 $3.00
Total: $117.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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