"Don’t limit your challenges, challenge your limits.” - Jerry Dunn
This year, it's the third leg of the Triple Crown; not the second. It's being held on the first Saturday in October, rather than the third Saturday in May. But despite all the changes to which it's been subjected by 2020 it's still the Preakness; and, good Lord willing, it will be a memorable one. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Pimlico ending with the The Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
RACE 8 - The Laurel Futurity $150k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Wootton Asset (Fr) (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 1 Pivotal Mission (ML 3-1)
# 8 Hidden Enemy (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 10 Nautilus (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 Kidnapped (ML 10-1)
# 7 Catman (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 No One to Blame (ML 15-1); # 5 Light Us Up (ML 12-1); # 6 Arrest Me Red (ML 6-1); # 9 Tijuana Brass (ML 20-1)
Wootton Asset (Fr), making his North American debut for Trainer Graham Motion, is the only runner in this field to have defeated winners. Pivotal Mission, also trained by Graham Motion, has yet to get his picture taken; but Pivotal Mission did take the Place last time out in the $500k More Than Ready Juvenile at Kentucky Downs.
Hidden Enemy (Ire), trained by Steve Asmussen, is another Maiden in this field that I've chosen to use on the big ticket. I think Hidden Enemy made a big move forward in his second start last time out, and I think that Hidden Enemy's breeding makes him well suited to Saturday's distance.
Nautilus, trained by Brad Cox, has shown steady improvement in each of his four career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The James W Murphy $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Vanzzy (ML 8-1)
B's
# 4 Reconvene (ML 10-1)
# 6 Jolting Joe (ML 15-1)
# 9 Monday Morning Qb (ML 8-1)
# 10 Don Juan Kitten (ML 9-2)
# 13 Bye Bye Melvin (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Chocolate Bar (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sunsation (ML 20-1)
# 2 Sunsation (ML 20-1)
# 5 Jack the Umpire (ML 15-1)
# 8 Oceans Map (ML 20-1)
# 12 Andesite (ML 10-1)
# 14 Paradise Pride (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 3 So Street (ML 15-1) and # 11 Buy Land and See (ML 8-1)
Vanzzy did not have a good go of it last time out in the Grade 3 Saranac at Saratoga. I expect Vanzzy to return to the form that he showed two starts back, when he won the Jersey Derby at Monmouth Park by open lengths over Saranac victor Bye Bye Melvin.
Reconvene could be the one running best late. Monday Morning Qb made a nice move forward last time out, and Monday Morning Qb could improve off that effort. Jolting Joe should improve with the cutback in distance. Bye Bye Melvin and Don Juan Kitten filled out the Exacta last time out in the aforementioned Grade 3 Saranac. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) The Black-Eyed Susan (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Bonny South (ML 7-5)
B's
# 8 Hopeful Growth (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Project Whiskey (ML 15-1)
# 2 Truth Hurts (ML 20-1)
# 3 So Darn Hot (ML 6-1)
# 2 Truth Hurts (ML 20-1)
# 3 So Darn Hot (ML 6-1)
# 4 Dream Marie (ML 15-1)
# 6 Sharp Starr (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mizzen Beau (ML 12-1)
# 9 Miss Marissa (ML 12-1)
# 11 Perfect Alibi (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 10 Landing Zone (ML 6-1)
Among the changes wrought by the year 2020 is having the Black-Eyed Susan and the Preakness run on the same date since.......well, to be honest, I don't know since when. Perhaps one of the historians in the audience will be kind enough to let us know.
Bonny South was second only to Swiss Skydiver last time out in the Grade 1 Alabama. Hopeful Growth seems to have a good race / poor race pattern going for her. Whatever it was that went wrong for her in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, hopefully Hopeful Growth is over it, and will show her best form today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 11 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Swiss Skydiver (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Mr. Big News (ML 12-1)
# 3 Art Collector (ML 5-2)
# 9 Authentic (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Excession (ML 30-1)
# 5 Thousand Words (ML 6-1)
# 6 Jesus' Team (ML 30-1)
# 7 Ny Traffic (ML 15-1)
# 8 Max Player (ML 15-1)
# 10 Pneumatic (ML 20-1)
# 11 Liveyourbestlife (ML 30-1)
# 11 Liveyourbestlife (ML 30-1)
She's a filly taking on the boys; but the real question is can Swiss Skydiver make up those three and a half lengths that she was behind Art Collector at the wire in the Grade 2 Blue Grass back in July? I think she can; because, as good as Art Collector has been, I think Swiss Skydiver has improved more since that contest. Either Swiss Skydiver or Art Collector can win this jewel of the Triple Crown; but I'm giving a slight edge to Swiss Skydiver.
Maybe Mr. Big News, Show finisher in the Kentucky Derby, can get there in time today. Authentic showed he was the real deal by winning the Kentucky Derby last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 7 with 5 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,8,10 with 4,6,7,9,10,13 with 5,8 with 2,3,4,9 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,5,8,12,14 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,9,11 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 7 with 5 with 1,5,6,7,8,10,11 $3.50
Total: $108.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:22 EDT / 12:22 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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