2/13/21 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning." - Robert Kiyosaki

The Grade 2 Santa Monica, a seven furlong sprint for older fillies and mares, is Saturday's featured race in Arcadia.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $32k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Captain Scotty (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Oil Can Knight (ML 4-1)

# 10 Promise Nothing (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Golden Image (ML 30-1)
# 3 Single Me Out (ML 8-1)

# 4 Fratelli (ML 5-1)
# 5 Italiano (ML 4-1)
# 6 Satchel de Ritches (ML 15-1)
# 8 See Through It (ML 15-1)

# 9 Howbeit (ML 10-1)

Back on Jan 25, 2020, Captain Scotty won the Grade 2 Palos Verdes.  Twelve months later, in this year's renewal of that event (now a Grade 3) Captain Scotty, after securing the early lead, could do no better than fifth.  Between those two contests, Captain Scotty was able to secure the W at today's claiming price of $32k, as well as in a first level Optional Claimer ($40k).

Captain Scotty, at his best, should win easily here.  The problem, of course, is not knowing how close to his best Captain Scotty is right now.  Perhaps I'm being overly cautious; but in a race where it would be reasonable to single, I'm going three deep on the main ticket.

Oil Can Knight appears to be in good enough form to handle the class rise from the $25k at which he won last time out.  Promise Nothing could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - [S] ALW N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 4 Carmelita's Man (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Tizhotndusty (ML 6-1)

# 6 One Fast Bro (ML 5-1)
# 7 Clayton Delaney (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Hapi Hapi (ML 20-1)

# 3 Tropical Terror (ML 5-1)

# 5 Kakistocracy (ML 8-1)

# 8 Burning Turf (ML 6-1)
# 9 Mr. Brownstone (ML 12-1)

Carmelita's Man was a winner over this turf course at today's distance last time out.  Tizhotndusty fits well here on class; and Tizhotndusty should maintain his form with the surface switch.

Clayton Delaney and One Fast Bro filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Monica (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Hard Not to Love (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Merneith (ML 5-1)

# 3 Fair Maiden (ML 4-1)

# 5 Qahira (ML 4-1)
# 6 Golden Principal (ML 8-1)

# 7 Secret Keeper (ML 12-1)

# 8 Amuse (ML 8-1)

# 9 Proud Emma (ML 15-1)
# 11 Biddy Duke (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 2 Miss Stormy D (ML 20-1); # 10 Pharoah's Heart (No Line); and # 12 Bohemian Bourbon (ML 20-1).  Note that Pharoah's Heart has been entered to run in Race 2 on Sunday.

Hard Not to Love looks best here, and the return to one turn racing should be to her benefit.  Besides, if I'm going to use any who finished in the Trifecta of the Grade 1 La Brea last time out (Fair Maiden, Golden Principal, and Merneith) them I'm going to use all three; and that just won't work, budget wise.  So it's Hard Not to Love solo on the main ticket in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Scarto (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Goalie (ML 6-1)

# 2 Encoder (ML 20-1)

# 5 Heywoods Beach (ML 6-1)

# 7 Award Winner (ML 6-1)

# 8 Indian Peak (ML 15-1)

# 9 Restiany (GB) (ML 10-1)

# 11 Taishan (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 3 Mind the Gap (ML 6-1); # 4 Fivestar Lynch (Ire) (NL); and # 6 King Theo (ML 30-1)

Scarto is getting some class relief here after three consecutive starts against Graded Stakes company.  Note that Scarto was victorious each of the last two times that Jockey Umberto Rispoli was on his back.

And Scarto as top pick is my only strong opinion in this contest.  Quite frankly, I consider this race to be wide open; and while I could probably whittle it down to just five or six, there's just no reason to do that here.  So it's everybody into the pool, as I'm punching the "ALL" button for this leg.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 4 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7,10 with 1,4,6,7 with 4 with ALL $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 4 with 4 with 10 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3,5,8,9 with 4 with 10 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 10 $4.00

Total: $59.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EST / 3:14 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo