It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday. So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN. These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.
As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories. So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse. Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Echo Zulo (Morning Line 4-5)
B's
# 5 Juju's Map (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Desert Dawn (ML 20-1)
# 2 Hidden Connection (ML 5-2)
# 2 Hidden Connection (ML 5-2)
# 3 Sequist (ML 15-1)
# 4 Tarabi (ML 12-1)
Echo Zulo has done pretty much anything she wanted in each of her three career starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories. I may later regret not making Echo Zulo a big ticket single in this leg; but I chose to double to cost of my main ticket by including Juju's Map.
Juju's Map has a Grade 1 victory of her own, and Juju's Map has already proven that she can win going around two turns. Finally, Juju's Map has shown that she can win without getting the early lead. So it's two deep for me in this contest, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 12 Malvath (Ire) (ML 8-1)
B's
# 1 Pizza Bianca (ML 5-1)
# 5 Bubble Rock (ML 8-1)
# 6 Hello You (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 9 Koala Princess (ML 6-1)
# 13 Mise En Scene (GB) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Cairo Memories (ML 12-1)
# 3 Cachet (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Turnerloose (ML 12-1)
# 7 Consumer Spending (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sail By (ML 20-1)
# 10 Helens Well (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 11 Haughty (ML 10-1)
# 14 California Angel (ML 8-1)
They're fillies, they're juveniles, and they're on the grass; so, yeah, pretty much anything can happen here.
Malvath (Ire), a Group Stakes winner in France, has shown steady improvement in each of her four career starts. I think Malvath has the breeding to get the distance, and I think Malvath has the tactical speed to extract herself from any traffic jams that she might find herself in. But, again, this is a race where chaos could reign, so I'm going pretty deep in this leg.
Pizza Bianca could be the one running best late; and, with the rail drawn, it's fair to presume that Pizza Bianca will be getting a ground saving trip. Bubble Rock is one that I was on the fence about using; but ultimately I decided to put this Brad Cox trainee on the main ticket because I like using runners on the Del Mar grass that have Giant's Causeway in their bloodlines.
Hello You (Ire) should handle the stretch out well. Koala Princess fits well here with the contenders, though I would not be surprised to see Koala Princess having greater success competing on the main track in her three year old season.
Mise En Scene (GB) moved too soon last time out; perhaps having Oisin Murphy back in the saddle will help Mise En Scene improve over that performance. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 12 Corniche (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Jasper Great (ML 15-1)
# 4 Pappacap (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Oviatt Class (ML 20-1)
# 5 Double Thunder (ML 20-1)
# 6 American Sanctuary (ML 30-1)
# 7 Giant Game (ML 30-1)
# 6 American Sanctuary (ML 30-1)
# 7 Giant Game (ML 30-1)
# 8 Barossa (ML 10-1)
# 9 Pinehurst (ML 8-1)
# 9 Pinehurst (ML 8-1)
# 10 Commandperformance (ML 5-1)
# 11 Tough to Tame (ML 30-1)
# 11 Tough to Tame (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Jack's Christopher (ML 9-5)
Needless to say, the analysis of a race changes significantly when the Morning Line Favorite is scratched. This is one that is especially disappointing to me, as I was looking forward to playing against Jack Christopher. Conversely, it may be for the best that I now know for certain that Jack Christopher can't beat me today.
Corniche, trained by Bob Baffert, has done nothing wrong so far in his two race career. Corniche should probably be a big ticket single here; but the far outside draw has made me more than just a little bit wary.
Jasper Great was a convincing winner in his debut, and at a price to boot. Jasper Great is out of a Wild Again mare, a bit of breeding that just might give Jasper Great the edge here.
Pappacap took the Place being Corniche in the Grade 1 American Pharoah last time out. Perhaps the better draw as well as the change in venue will give Pappacap the edge today. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Modern Games (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 2 Albahr (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 3 Dakota Gold (ML 8-1)
# 8 Glounthaune (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 10 Portfolio Company (ML 6-1)
# 14 Dubawi Legend (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Tiz the Bomb (ML 8-1)
# 5 Slipstream (ML 12-1)
# 6 Mackinnon (ML 8-1)
# 7 Great Max (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stolen Bases (ML 20-1)
# 11 Grafton Street (ML 15-1)
# 12 Credibility (ML 30-1)
# 13 Coinage (ML 15-1)
# 13 Coinage (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 15 Ready to Purrform (ML 20-1) and # 16 Detroit City (ML 30-1)
Modern Games (Ire) misses by less than a length of entering this contest with a four race winning streak. I expect Modern Games to be prominent early, and make good use of the rail draw.
Albahr (GB) did quite well for himself in his North American debut last time out, easily winning the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. By the way, and this is just my opinion, of course, but it's long overdue for Woodbine to be the host track for the Breeders' Cup again. Dakota Gold did well enough in his turf debut last time out that I think Dakota Gold can handle the more distinguished competition that he will be facing here.
Glounthaune (Ire) should do well with the additional real estate. Portfolio Company can be expected to be close up to the pace early. Dubawi Legend (Ire) has handled himself well against high quality competition.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 12 with 12 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,5,6,9,12,13 with 2,4,12 with 1,2,3,8,10,14 $108.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4 with 12 with 12 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,4,7,8,10,11,14 with 12 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 12 with 3,5,6,7,8,910,11 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 12 with 12 with 4,5,6,7,9,11,12,13 $4.00
Total: $123.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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