11/6/21 Del Mar All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Expect problems and eat them for breakfast." - Alfred A. Montapert

Breathe.  Relax.  And remember what I wrote yesterday: HAVE FUN!  So with those instructions to guide us as we head into Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four at Del Mar.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Space Blues (Ire) (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Smooth Like Strait (ML 10-1)

# 6 Mo Forza (ML 5-1)

# 9 Mother Earth (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 12 Pearls Galore (Fr) (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Master of The Seas (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 4 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 15-1)

# 5 Vin de Garde (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

# 7 In Love (ML 8-1)

# 10 Blowout (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 11 Got Stormy (ML 10-1)

# 13 Casa Creed (ML 15-1)

# 14 Ivar (Brz) (ML 12-1)

# 15 Real Appeal (Ger) (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 8 Hit the Road (ML 15-1) and # 16 Queen Supreme (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Space Blues (Ire) appears to be in top form, defeating high quality competition in each of his last two contests overseas.  Smooth Like Strait projects to be up on the pace early, and will almost certainly be doing so with a rail trip.

Mo Forza, winner of eight of his last nine contests, has shown a definite affinity for this turf course.  Mother Earth (Ire) could benefit from the firmer sod here in the States, and Mother Earth just might be the one running best late.

Pearls Galore (Fr), two back of Space Blues at the wire last time out, could move up with the increase in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Letruska (ML 8-5)

B's

# 2 Royal Flag (ML 8-1)

# 8 Shedaresthedevil (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Private Mission (ML 8-1)

# 3 Malathaat (ML 4-1)

# 4 Blue Stripe (Arg) (ML 30-1)

# 5 Clairiere (ML 12-1)

# 7 Horologist (ML 30-1)

# 9 As Time Goes By (ML 15-1)

# 10 Marche Lorraine (Jpn) (ML 30-1)

# 11 Dunbar Road (ML 15-1)

A strong case could be made for making Letruska a big ticket single in this leg.  But I'm not totally convinced that Letruska will be in top form today considering the workload that she has shouldered this year.  Mind you, I think she will; but not to the point where I will be using Letruska solo in this contest.

If you want to look at this event as a pace contest, I expect Letruska to be among the frontrunners, Shedaresthedevil to be pressing the leaders, and Royal Flag to be the one running best late.  In my opinion, whichever one of those three does the best job of running true to their style will be the one getting their picture taken when this race is over.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 13 Tarnawa (Ire) (ML 9-5)

B's

# 7 Walton Street (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 8 Broome (Ire) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 4 Astronaut (ML 20-1)

# 5 Tribhuvan (Fr) (ML 20-1)

# 6 Acclimate (ML 20-1)

# 9 Sisfahan (Fr) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Yibir (GB) (ML 12-1)

# 11 Gufo (ML 8-1)

# 12 Teona (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 14 Japan (GB) (ML 20-1)

# 15 Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 16 Channel Maker (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 2 United (ML 20-1); # 3 Domestic Spending (GB) (ML 4-1); # 17 Mogul (GB) (ML 30-1); and # 18 Friar's Road (ML 30-1)

Tarnawa (Ire) is the defending champ for this event, and Tarnawa looks to be best yet again.  The only concern I have with Tarnawa is that she managed to miss the winner's circle in each of her last two contests, suggesting that Tarnawa may not be in top form.

Walton Street (GB) was such a convincing winner of the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine last time out that I believe Walton Street deserves consideration here.  Toss out Broome's (Ire) last race; I expect a much better effort today.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Essential Quality (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Hot Rod Charlie (ML 4-1)

# 5 Knicks Go (ML 5-2)

# 8 Medina Spirit (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Tripoli (ML 15-1)

# 6 Art Collector (ML 8-1)
# 7 Stilleto Boy (ML 30-1)

# 9 Max Player (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 2 Express Train (ML 20-1)

I don't think there's much of anything that I can tell you about any of these runners that you don't already know.  Were it not for the equipment change, Hot Rod Charlie would be my top pick here.  Indeed, if I were a braver man, I would probably make Hot Rod Charlie a backup "C" Selection, as I am most definitely not a huge fan of trainers adding or removing blinkers right before the biggest race of the year.  But Hot Rod Charlie has won in the past with the hood on, so we'll see.

Turn back the distance to nine furlongs and Knicks Go would be my "A" Selection for this leg.  Yeah, Knicks Go should be able to handle a mile and a quarter; but, then again, maybe not.

Medina Spirit is the only horse to have ever beaten Essential Quality, having done so in the Kentucky Derby; for which, incidentally, Medina Spirit has yet to be disqualified.  So of these four main contenders I've put Essential Quality on top; the other three as "B" Selections; and all others as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 13 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,9,12 with 2,6,8 with 7,8,13 with 3,4,5,8 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,7,10,11,13,14,15 with 6 with 13 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,3,4,5,7,9,10,11 with 13 with 4 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 1,4,5,6,9,10,11,12,14,15,16 with 4 $5.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 13 with 1,6,7,9 $2.00

Total: $107.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 6:20 EDT / 3:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo