“The first step towards getting somewhere is to decide you’re not going to stay where you are.” - J. P. Morgan
Saturday marks the beginning of the 2022 meeting for thoroughbreds in the Toronto area, as the home of the 1996 Breeders' Cup resumes action. As many of the runners on the grounds will be making their 2022 debut, Saturday's program is sprints and nothing but sprints, with every race being run at a distance of either five furlongs or five and a half furlongs, so that the equine athletes can ease themselves back into competition.
It should be mentioned that this handicapper may need to ease himself back into Canadian wagering, as I often had to remind myself of the following differences: the minimum wager for the Pick Four is twenty cents (rather than fifty); there's only one Pick Four on the card; and the Pick Four races are not the Final Four contests on the program. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at Woodbine's $100k Guaranteed Pick Four.
RACE 4 - (F) OC 40k/N2L - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Lois Len (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Swirling Dancer (ML 3-1)
# 7 Forest B (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Fourteen Days (ML 15-1)
# 2 Ol' Blondie (ML 8-1)
# 2 Ol' Blondie (ML 8-1)
# 4 J M R Gemma (ML 10-1)
# 6 Diamond Crusch (ML 12-1)
# 8 Khozzy Valintine (ML 6-1)
As all runners in this contest have just one career victory, it appears that the option to allow your entrant to be claimed is 100% voluntary on behalf of the connections. For those who note such things, Swirling Dancer, Diamond Crush, and Khozzy Valintine are the three runners in this event that are available for purchase for $40k.
Lois Len was a victor in her career debut; so Lois Len is accustomed to winning off just works. This will also be Lois Len's first race since her debut that is not against stakes company; so the class relief could work in Lois Len's favor.
Swirling Dancer took the Place at this class level in each of her last two races. Forest B won the speed duel but lost the war last time out, settling for the Show at this class level in a contest in which she led in the stretch. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 5 - MSW - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Chancel (ML 20-1)
B's
# 1 Nikolaou (ML 2-1)
# 5 Icing (ML 8-5)
C's
# 3 Red Mercury (ML 15-1)
# 4 Commander Joe (ML 7-2)
# 6 Jimmies Big Day (ML 9-2)
Since this is Opening Day, and all these contests are short sprints, this sequence has a sort of lottery feel to it. If it's vitally important to you that you cash your Pick Four play today, you may want to give strong consideration to punching the "ALL" button here. As for me, I thought that I'd use this leg to do a little swing for the fences, which is why I put Chancel on top. Chancel ran the best race of his career last Fall while simultaneously running the shortest distance of his career. In addition, Chancel had a solid workout over this track earlier this month; so, why not?
No surprises in the other two runners that I'm using here. Nikolaou took the Show at this class level last time out. Icing ships in from Florida for Trainer Mark Casse after having run well in a couple of turf sprints in Gulfstream Park. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 6 - (F) ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Beautiful Empire (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Ever So d'Wild (ML 20-1)
# 3 Fast Corey (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Sweet Carolena (ML 4-1)
# 4 Takota (ML 10-1)
# 6 Golden Garter (ML 20-1)
# 7 Sterling Speed (ML 8-1)
# 8 Take It Easy (ML 12-1)
# 9 Forest Drift (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wicked Miah (ML 20-1)
Beautiful Empire took the Show against stakes company at Turfway Park last time out, approximately two months ago. Ever So d'Wild has done well at the five furlong distance throughout her career.
Fast Corey, the only other three year old in this event besides Beautiful Empire, was a convincing winner in her debut at Turfway Park last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - (F) The Long Branch $100k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Our Secret Agent (ML 7-5)
B's
# 4 Dreaming of Drew (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Nikee Kan (ML 5-2)
# 3 Jeanie B (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 6 Ima Beast (ML 20-1)
# 7 Imagery (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Marais (ML 20-1)
Our Secret Agent looks classiest here by far. The concerns with Our Secret Agent are the distance and Trainer Mark Casse's intent; that is, is this sprint meant to be just a tune up race, a short sprint to get Our Secret Agent in shape for the Graded Stakes to come later this year? Minus those concerns, Our Secret Agent would probably be a single on my main ticket.
Dreaming of Drew has a prior victory at today's distance, and Dreaming of Drew's work over this track last Saturday suggests that she's ready to fire off the bench. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 2 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P4: 3,5,7 with 1,2,5 with 2,3,5 with 1,4 $10.80
A's with One C
$0.20 P4: 1,2,4,6,8 with 2 with 5 with 1 $1.00
$0.20 P4: 5 with 3,4,6 with 5 with 1 $0.60
$0.20 P4: 5 with 2 with 1,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 1 $1.40
$0.20 P4: 5 with 2 with 5 with 2,3,6,7 $0.80
Total: $15.60
Post Time for Race 4 is 2:44 EDT / 11:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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