4/2/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“The only time to eat diet food is while you’re waiting for the steak to cook.” - Julia Child

The Road to the Kentucky Derby passes through Florence, KY Saturday, with three year olds competing  on the synthetic in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks.  Since Saturday is the final day of the Turfway Park meet, it is a mandatory payout day for all pools, including the Jackpot Pick Six.  However, I decided to set my sights a bit lower today; so I will be concentrating my energies on the Final Four contests on the card.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 9 - The Animal Kingdom $200k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Rotknee (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 1 Nobals (ML 3-1)

# 4 Hoist the Gold (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Higher Standard (ML 5-2)

# 3 Immoral (ML 30-1)

# 5 Determined Kingdom (ML 12-1)

# 6 Amicable (ML 30-1)

# 8 Stonevicious (ML 15-1)

Rotknee has been tearing it up against New York breds; and while it would be easy to dismiss those results by saying they've come against lesser competition, the manner in which Rotknee was able to emerge victorious in those contests suggests that Rotknee is well suited to the opponents that he will be facing here.

Last time out Nobals proved that he brings his track with him, provided it's a synthetic track.  Hoist the Gold could projects to be the one getting first run at the leaders.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Kentucky Cup Classic $250k - Nine Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 12 Beatbox (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Visitant (ML 2-1)

# 10 Cross Border (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 King Fury (ML 4-1)

# 5 Cupid's Claws (ML 20-1)
# 6 King Cause (ML 20-1)

# 7 Blanket of Roses (ML 50-1)

# 8 American Theorem (ML 20-1)
# 9 Spectacular Gem (ML 50-1)

# 11 Tartufo (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 Invader (ML 8-1); # 4 Tiberius Mercurius (ML 30-1); # 13 Cullum Road (ML 30-1); # 14 Sprinklehead (ML 50-1)

Beatbox is three-for-three over this track this meet, with all three victories coming by daylight.  Visitant is the defending champ for this event, having won this contest in 2021.

Cross Border could improve with the return to the synthetic surface, and Cross Border might be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - (F) The Bourbonette Oaks $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 10 North County (ML 5-1)

B's

# 2 Let's Be Clear (ML 12-1)

# 7 Mrs. Barbara (ML 5-1)

# 8 Sandstone (ML 5-2)

# 11 Catiche (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Red Hot Mama (ML 30-1)

# 3 Tap Dancing Lady (ML 6-1)

# 4 Candy Raid (ML 20-1)

# 5 Schlofmitz (ML 20-1)

# 6 Heavenly Hellos (ML 30-1)

# 9 Champagne Poetry (ML 10-1)

# 12 Vergara (ML 8-1)

North County was simply outclassed last time out, and she ran like it.  I expect North County to run much better today, facing a field that is much closer to her competitive level.

Let's Be Clear demonstrated last time out that she is just fine with competing on the synthetic.  Mrs. Barbara won the Grade 3 Mazarine over the synthetic surface up at Woodbine.  Sandstone might be quickest here, and could be the one that they'll have to catch to win.

Catiche may have finally figured it out, winning for fun last time out over the synthetic surface at Gulfstream Park.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 12 - The Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 7 Tiz the Bomb (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Royal Spirit (ML 10-1)

# 5 Tawny Port (ML 6-1)

# 13 Swing Shift (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Stolen Base (ML 7-2)

# 3 Cabo Spirit (ML 12-1)
# 4 Rich Strike (ML 20-1)

# 6 Great Escape (ML 15-1)

# 8 Red Run (ML 6-1)
# 9 Dowagiac Chef (ML 8-1)
# 10 Optigogo (ML 30-1)
# 11 Constitutionlawyer (ML 50-1)

Scratch # 12 Blackadder (ML 15-1)

Tiz the Bomb and Stolen Base go at it again, in what has been, to be honest, a rather one sided rivalry.  I know most punters will be using both Tiz the Bomb and Stolen Base; and Stolen Base was certainly close enough to Tiz the Bomb at the wire to suggest that the tables could be turned today.  But I'm going to take my chances and presume that Tiz the Bomb's dominance over Stolen Base will continue.

Royal Spirit and Swing Shift, bookending the gate at the start, are both trained by Todd Pletcher.  Tawny Port is trained by Brad Cox.  Those three are on the main ticket because of my respect for the connections.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 12 with 10 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 2,10,12 with 2,7,8,10,11 with 1,5,7,13 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,8 with 12 with 10 with 7 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 10 with 7 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 12 with 1,3,4,5,6,9,12 with 7 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 12 with 10 with 2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11 $4.00

Total: $104.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 4:43 EDT / 1:43 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo